Mexico City's annual clearance rate hit a 7-year low
With economic uncertainty hindering buyers from buying homes, the Australian residential housing market is setting its worst annual performance record since the global economic crisis.
According to the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) data, in 2011, among the major Australian cities, Melbourne's housing market performed the most gloomy, and the clearance rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2004. REIV predicts that, counting the last few weekends of this year, the average house clearance rate in Mexico in 2011 was only 57%, far lower than last year's 71%.
In Sydney, the clearance rate at the end of last week was 52.4%, down from 55.1% two weeks ago. According to data from Australian Property Monitors under Fairfax Media, if the property boom that may have occurred in early December is excluded, the average clearance rate in 12 will remain at 2011%, which is the worst record since 54.
Real estate not only reflects the health of the economy, but also an important factor in promoting the healthy development of the economy. First suppressed by rising interest rates, and then hit by potential global economic risks eroding buyer confidence, Australian house prices have collapsed and even started to fall in the past year.
So far, Australia has not seen the housing market crashes encountered in developed countries such as the United States, Britain and Ireland, and prices have always been at a high level. This is mainly due to Australia's relatively low unemployment rate and growing population. And if economic development continues to decelerate, the central bank will cut the cash interest rate again, and Australia's official profit is currently 4.5%.
REIV's research manager Robert Larocca said: "Most of this year, Australians believe that interest rates will rise rather than fall. Coupled with concerns about the global economy, many people are afraid to pay high prices at auctions. "
Declining clearance rate
RP Data data show that in 2011, the Australian clearance rate was 48.3%, while in 2010 and 2009 it reached 60.9% and 69.9%. However, this annual average did not fully reflect the decline in the liquidation rate in the second half of 2011. Last weekend, the national clearance rate rose from 44.2% to 46.5%. On the weekend of October 10, the national clearance rate was only 2%, the lowest since RP Data started counting.
Housing affordability is low, economic doubts are overwhelming, and central bank observers generally predict the hysteresis effect of rising interest rates. The RP Data clearance rate indicator has been suppressed below 19% in the past 50 years.
RP Data research director Tim Lawless said: "When you find that the clearance rate has been less than 50% for a long time, you can't help asking why the owners still choose to auction houses?"
House auctions are all over Australia, but Melbourne is especially popular, followed by Sydney. Generally speaking, if house prices rise, the clearance rate will also rise, indicating that the overall demand for houses in the market is relatively high.
Last weekend, REIV recorded a 53% clearance rate in Melbourne, which was lower than the previous week's 51% (pre-revision 54%). REIV calculates the clearance rate on Saturday and updates the data on Sunday and Wednesday.
Weak housing market
Lorris pointed out that the auction process has currently been used by intermediaries and sellers as a means to display target properties, through which it can attract interested buyers to negotiate private transactions.
The decline in the clearance rate is not the only evidence of weakness in the housing market. According to Rismark of RP Data, house prices have fallen for 9 consecutive months in September, and the month's decline was slightly better than the 9% in August, narrowing to 8%. In September, the average price of independent houses in Australia was 0.4 yuan.
Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan said: “The weakness of the auction market is irrefutable. The clearance rate has stagnated at the current level and cannot be increased. It is impossible for house prices to rise.” He also believes that housing prices in 2011 will increase The decline was quite similar to the 2008 financial crisis, although the Australians' reaction to interest rate adjustments was not as violent as they are now.
As the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the United States continues to intensify, people's expectations for future interest rates changed in August. Various worries prompted the central bank to finally cut interest rates this month. This is the first time the central bank has cut interest rates since April 2009. The next board meeting of the Central Bank will be held on December 4.