Can a lottery be drawn for the Spring Festival train tickets?

Release your eyes, put on headphones, and listen~!
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Posted on Monday, January 2014, 1 13:11

【导读】一年一度的春运又开始了。执行新的运行图的同一天上午,2014年春运火车票开始发售。本想购票的消费者, The 12306 website became very slow. After clicking the booking bar, the pop-up window either displayed "This page cannot be displayed" or "Certificate error: Navigation has been blocked".Currently, the vulnerability has been fixed and the website has returned to normal.

    In fact, even if all the technical problems are solved, the experience of consumers buying tickets on the 12306 website is destined to not be too good.In fact, when consumers order tickets on the 12306 website, who can get it, who can't, depends on who is fast, even because the signal forwarded by the routing and switch is as early as 0.001 seconds to grab the last ticket.

    售票一开始,无数人都在登录,这就相当于把抽签了非常短的一段时间内进行,对的压力也就非常大。前两年,人们搞多部电话、追拨器、刷票软件起到的作用就是增加抽签次数,增大中签概率。对于这种情况,即使建立排队机制;把接口开放给第三方代理;分区域网络订票,即便能应对巨大的并发链接的压力,但排队的先后仍然取决于那么0.001秒的时间,也就说,抽签本质无法改变。

    从经济学的角度来看,抽签的本质是内生的。春运时的火车票是稀缺资源,但是,又不能靠价格解决,因为春节回家是中国人的,能够产生明显的分流、抑制需求效果的价位一定会是大大超过现有票价的。也就是说,在有分流效果之前,社会公义早就失去了。那么,人人都想要,又必须限价,必然需要另外的方式来分配——要么是黑市黄牛,要么是排队,要么是抽签。

    In fact, the emergence of information technology and the real-name system can们更悠闲、更公平、更合理地完成这一切,抽签仍然是抽签,但却是一个人人平等,没有门槛,不用眼疾手快的抽签。

    春运行程计划性强,所以春运前一个月,可用一周时间供公众在网站输入身份证,并预订车次、座位,可以提交数个不同优先程度的预订。一周之后电脑抽签并公布,中签者可凭身份证购预订车次的车票。

    这样的抽签会使票的分配更加人性化。首先,可以根据年龄、、是否残疾赋予不同的中签概率,照顾老弱病残孕。而且,如果一个人多年不中,还可以调整他的中签率。这一点与北京抽车牌是一样的,但与抽车牌不同的是,由于车票每年都需要再抽,所以,也没有在抽车牌中调整中签率造成代际不公。其次,对于必须一起出行的,可进行团体抽签,只需调整中签率即可。而且,较长的登记时间,则可以方便找人帮忙,甚至自己慢慢操作也是一样,不需要再“抢”,不熟悉电脑的问题就迎刃而解。考虑到临时出行的人,留少数余票即可,参与过春运抽签的人不得购买。

    这样的抽签还能优化资源的配置。可实时显示预订情况和各车次、座次中签概率,人们可调整出行计划,想把握大点,就订差一点的车或座位,或者时间离春节远一些。铁道部也可以根据情况安排、调度列车,两方面都可促进资源的优化配置。

    Even for those who fail to draw, it is beneficial, at least they can plan ahead and take advantage of、乘长途汽车等方式。至于作弊问题,则几乎不用考虑,因为,抽签实际上把分配票的权力更加集中了,更不容易开后门。

    车牌与火车票,前者更接近奢侈,而后者更接近基本需求的.Since we are now drawing lots for something that should be determined by price, why not allocate this way to a more basic demand?

    □刘远举 上海金融与研究院研究员

Source: Sohu

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