火焰过后是海水。中国房地产在 经历了2013年一轮价量齐升的快速增长之后,2014便陷入了量价齐跌的低迷状态。一二三线城市房价渐次回落,商品房成交量同比萎缩,土地购置量和购置 价格也相应回落。截至2014年6月末,全国累计销售面积48365万平方米,同比下降6.0%;全国百城住宅平均价已连续四个季度环比下降,71个城市 环比出现下跌,其中包括历来价格坚挺的一线城市北京、上海以及广州,且跌幅逐渐扩大。与此同时,开发商拿地态度也趋于谨慎,上半年累计土地购置面积 14807万平米,同比下跌5.8%;土地平均购置价格涨幅出现较大程度回落,同比增6.5%(2013年同期值23%)。

The long-term boom in the market has stimulated the continued rapid growth of real estate investment. From 2010 to 2013, the proportion of completed real estate development investment in fixed asset investment in the whole society has always been stable at about 20%. In 2013, land transfer fees contributed 33% of the local disposable income. Therefore, real estate is not only the "pillar" of local economic growth, but also an important source of finance for local governments. To resolve the macroeconomic downside risks and achieve the goal of "steady growth", it is necessary to stabilize the property market first. To balance local financial revenue and expenditure, we must also rely on "land finance." After the State Council’s 2014 government work report set the tone for “classified regulation based on the conditions of different cities”, most provinces and cities issued a new real estate deal with a highly consistent tone, with loosening of policies and escalating stimulus.

Comparing the real estate data of some major cities in Guangdong and Fujian with the same caliber, we found that: Compared with purchase-restricted cities, the sales of commercial housing in non-purchase-restricted cities with looser real estate policy control have also experienced a simultaneous decline after entering 2014. The performance at the end of the second quarter tended to be close. This shows that regardless of the existence of policy adjustments, the market's bullish expectations for real estate have changed, and the current market views on real estate entering the adjustment cycle have become consistent.

longThe inflection point of the cyclical factor is highlighted

人 口因素对房地产市场的支撑力度减弱。上世纪70年代初和80年代中后期的人口高峰带来了1985-2010年劳动力的增长,同时也带来了房地产“刚需”的 增加。1986-2013年,商品房销售面积销量一路上涨(2008年金融危机除外),年均增速达到29.6%。全国住宅平均价格也由1991年的756 元/平米上涨到了2013年的5850元/平米。2010年,15-64岁人口占总人口比例达到74.5%的峰值,随后开始下降,到2013年这个比例下 降到72.8%,人口老龄化趋势显现, 65岁以上买房需求较薄弱的群体占比逐年增加。

结婚置业是商品房需求的主要构成之一。从人口结构来看,我国20-39岁年龄的人数在2015年后出现明显下行趋势。我们预计全国新结婚对数将从2013年的1350万对,逐年下滑至2020年的800万对,年均增速为-7%,可见未来5年结婚置业刚需下滑。

The impact of urbanization on China's real estate market demand has weakened. The expansion of urban population under high-speed urbanization supports the expectation of rigid real estate demand, which generates a certain price increase momentum, but the bubble appears when urbanization is slowing down but the expectations are still not fully adjusted. At this time, speculation is the main motivation to support the housing price bubble. The period of rapid growth of China's urbanization has passed. Although compared with developed countries such as Japan and the United States with an urbanization level of more than 80%, China's urbanization potential is still great, but from the current demographic and economic situation, the future urbanization speed and urban population growth rate will be obvious decline. The demographic dividend brought by migrant workers is about to disappear, and the rate of urbanization will slow down. Urban differentiation will gradually increase. Industrial structure adjustment and repositioning in different economic circles determine the level of regional urbanization. Cities lacking economic attractiveness will not only be difficult to attract migrants from other regions, but even local populations will have an outflow trend.

The downward trend is clear

Long-term factors will lead to a turning point in the real estate cycle. From overseas experience, when the demographic structure, urbanization and other long-term factors that affect real estate have an inflection point, they will have a profound impact on the real estate cycle along the path of market demand "market expectations" market trends. 2010-2015 is the intensive period of the inflection point of China's population structure and urbanization. The changes in the labor force, urban population and marriage-age population have jointly contributed to the downward inflection point of domestic real estate in the long-term cycle. Our calculation results show that from now until the beginning of 2016, the potential domestic supply of new homes will always inhibit real estate prices.

Increased supply elasticity forms a long-term pattern of "weak balance" in real estate. The boom cycle of more than ten years has promoted the vigorous development of China's real estate industry. In response to strong market demand, development costs and rapid changes in policy control, large real estate developers have sufficient forward-looking land reserves, product development and design capabilities and production efficiency have been continuously improved, and their business model has also transitioned from the initial "land value-added" to " "High turnover profit", the market supply elasticity is greatly enhanced. Under the background of weakening real estate demand, the pressure of real estate oversupply will exist for a long time. High supply elasticity means that market demand will be met in time and in full. Maintaining a "weak balance" market pattern will become the new normal in the future real estate market.

部分城市人口呈现流出趋势,价格已体现预期转变。2010年后城镇化进程已经放缓,城市间的不均衡尤为突出。在2010-2012 年期间,全国房地产平均价格上涨约10%的背景下,人口增速为负的15个三线城市中的蚌埠、开封、十堰、韶关、茂名、南通这6个城市以及人口负增长的省会 城市南宁房价已出现逆势下跌,房价预期转变与分化已提前出现。二三线城市人口城镇化步伐大幅放缓甚至出现倒退,以至于对房地产的刚性需求也相应减少。

The housing price-to-income ratio and population density reflect long-term price trends. After the demand for real estate investment weakens and buyers start to focus on self-occupation needs, the impact of income on housing prices will gradually be reflected. By comparing the housing price-to-income ratios of various cities in China, we found that first-tier cities are generally higher, which is consistent with the fact that the housing price-to-income ratios of international metropolises such as Tokyo and New York are higher than other cities in the country; second-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Xiamen, Fuzhou, Haikou, etc. The population density, the area of ​​commercial housing that can be built in the built-up area, and the attractiveness of capital have become the main factors for the high price-to-income ratio; the third-tier cities in Sanya and Wenzhou have an abnormally high housing price-to-income ratio, which is lower than the actual affordability of local residents. Big gap.

When real estate demand is dominated by self-occupation needs, population density determines housing prices. When the investment under the expectation of rising housing prices becomes an important demand, the flow of capital determines the trend of housing prices. The housing prices in Tokyo, New York and other places are significantly higher than those in Japan and other parts of the United States. This is because these areas are higher than other areas in terms of population density and capital abundance. China’s housing prices basically conform to this law.

21st Century Business Heraldlogo-40x402