Wu Xiaobo: China's great changes will happen in 2015 and dominate the world after the 80s
"Value Line": Recently, news of falling housing prices has spread in many places. How do you see the trend of the real estate market?
[Wu Xiaobo] We have bought a lot of houses in the past ten years, and I also own ten houses. In the future, the house may still be a value-preserving commodity, but I am not sure whether the house will continue to increase in value in the future.
But on the other hand, it should be noted that wealth must be insecure in the future. For China’s economy to develop in the future, we must maintain a moderate control. Our GDP may remain at about 7%, but the annual currency issuance is economic Twice the growth rate. So I proposed that we must rethink the concept of financial management. If this problem is not resolved, our future financial problems cannot be resolved.
"Value Line": Is there a bubble in the real estate market? Is there a bubble in the Chinese economy?
[Wu Xiaobo] In economics, there is no answer to what is a bubble. If you can answer this question well, you can win the Nobel Prize. Greenspan once said, what is a bubble, only when it bursts, you know it is a bubble. For example, when house prices in Wenzhou and Ordos fall, there is a bubble. Have house prices in Nanjing dropped? No, there is no bubble.
Manufacturing and urbanization are the two-wheeled carriage driving China's future development. However, the manufacturing industry is facing huge problems and must be transformed. Urbanization also faces problems and needs reform. If the transformation and reform are in place, China's economic development will be no problem. If these two issues are not resolved, the Chinese economy will face a huge bubble.
"Value Line": Internet finance is very hot today, how do you view the changes brought about by Internet finance?
[Wu Xiaobo] The impact of Internet finance on the banking industry has already begun. Maybe in three to five years, we don’t need cash or bank cards. Some bankers have said that banks may disappear in 20 years. I think this situation may happen. appear.
"Value Line": What do you think about virtual currencies such as Bitcoin?
[Wu Xiaobo] Impossible, what is currency? It is a weapon for a country to defend its own country's economic privileges. Bitcoin is like a Red Guard-style product. It hopes to defeat the currency hegemony of various countries. Which country is willing to be defeated by it. Bitcoin is a small experiment of some Internet practitioners and engineers, and it is unlikely to replace real money. According to my country’s current regulations, Bitcoin is illegal. China is the world’s largest virtual currency country. Tencent’s Q coins issued a year are between 250 and 280 billion, but it is irreversible. You can only use RMB to buy Q coins. , But cannot use Q currency to exchange for RMB.
"Value Line": The recent trend of the RMB exchange rate is relatively turbulent, can you analyze the future trend of the RMB?
[Wu Xiaobo] After the United States withdrew from QE3, the currencies of all emerging countries, such as Brazil and Argentina, suffered a blow. China is considered strong. On the last day of 2013, I remember correctly that the exchange rate of RMB to USD was 6.09.
I think that the renminbi will compete with the dollar for a long time at around 6, which is a psychological line of global central banks. But if you have a lot of renminbi cash in your hands, you should pay attention to a point, that is, if the US dollar to renminbi exchange rate reaches 1:5.5, the renminbi will become very fragile. But it is unlikely in the short term.
[Talking about reform] 2014 is the beginning of the fourth reform cycle
Reform, the word has not been heard for a long time. In 2003, China had a concept called the "Huwen New Deal". Put forward two goals, the first is socialism under constitutional government. The second proposal is to transform the economic growth mode and take a new path of industrialized growth. But it is a pity that the ten years that began in 2003 were a decade of stagnation in China's reforms, and our broad money M2 increased by five times. So far we have seen China's reforms. Counting from 5, we are now entering the fourth period of reforms. The Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee was held in November last year. The Chinese government renewed its proposal to carry out reforms. In various fields, the Third Plenary Session of the Third Plenum had reforms in 1978 areas. Therefore, from the 11-year history of China's economic reform, 60 is the beginning of the fourth reform cycle, so it is very, very important from a reform perspective. Great changes will happen in 36.
[Talking about manufacturing] 50-60% of traditional manufacturing companies may not survive
I have been running a business for more than 20 years, and often the owner of a manufacturing company drives a car into the plant and tells me that this is the largest plant in Asia. This situation may become less and less in the future.
In the long run, there is no country in the world that provides skilled industrial workers for more than three years, and China will rely on manufacturing in order to gain a foothold in the world. So what is changing in manufacturing now? The manufacturing industry will change from a model of large-scale manufacturing based on cost advantages to a model called "specialized company + information transformation + small manufacturing".
I think that in the next ten years in China, 50-60% of traditional manufacturing companies will not be able to pass this threshold, but these companies that have passed the threshold have very great prospects in the future. Those professional companies that can really survive in China in the future. In addition, you also need to use information technology revolution to change two things. The first is to transform all internal processes of the enterprise and carry out all internal information transformation. Second, use information technology to recreate the relationship between you and the consumer.
[Talking about e-commerce] If you don’t understand e-commerce, there is definitely no future
Many years ago, e-commerce was still in the high-tech field. Those who do business today and those who do business, whether they are selling flowers or color TV, have no future if they don’t understand e-commerce.
For example, Chu Shijian grew oranges in a very remote place in China. He has grown oranges for ten years. He is now 85 years old. There are 8000 tons of oranges there. All of them were sold in the past year. They were sold online. It's cost-effective to sell 165 tons of this orange in three days.
Those who do business now must first think about your relationship with BAT. Second, I am Bank of China, I am China Mobile, who is my enemy? I can be sure that the enemy of Bank of China must not be China Merchants Bank, or the people who defeat these big guys in the future. They are not in your field of vision, and everything has been penetrated. Many bottlenecks have been broken down by e-commerce.
A WeChat, you need to know when did Chinese Internet companies invent WeChat? It is a product similar to WeChat. Ding Lei had already invented this product in 2004. He held a press conference in Beijing and proposed that I want to become a Chinese virtual telecom operator. The government asked him two days later and shut it down. As you all know, of the world’s three largest mobile social networking platforms, two of them were invented by Asians.
[Talking about mobile internet] Mobile phones change everything
There will be four phenomena on the mobile phone. The first is the creation of consumer relations. The second is that China will build a new payment credit system. JD.com recently launched a product called "Consume First, Pay Later" (JD Baitiao). Because all your consumption records on JD.com have been kept, he dared to hit blank bars. In the future, China's personal credit consumption system may be established by these e-commerce companies in the future. The third is the new O2O model. The fourth is the creation of a personal learning model, so mobile phones will change everything.
Whether it is a fast-moving consumer product or a slow-use consumer product, you must think clearly, what is the relationship between me and the mobile phone, if I don’t think about it clearly, it will definitely die within three years.
[Talking about the future] Post-80s dominate the world
Zong Qinghou was born in 1945 and Liu Chuanzhi was born in 1944. These people were the first pioneers of reform. China’s current billionaires are about 10 people, and the average age is born in 1966. China’s billionaires are probably born in the 1972s, 50s, and 60s around 70, using our values Established China's current business world. But what's wrong now? Now that people born in 1980 have become the main force in the workplace, people born in the 90s started looking for jobs last year.
I participated in an event a while ago, and there were three post-80s who were sitting there, one for LeTV, one for Tujia.com, and one for Renrendai. People over XNUMX years old may find it very strange. They were five years ago. They are not in people's vision at all, and now they appear in the circle of China's top entrepreneurs.
When they became the most important consumer group in China, they faced a problem. They would not be used to the commercial world established in the 60s and 70s. From the perspective of the Chinese population, the post-80s are new humans.
When the new mankind now begins to appear, we will see the so-called new four modernizations. First, all businesses will be Internet-based. Second, all brands will be personified. Third, all consumption will be entertained. In the future, a company that does not speak marketing will be very troublesome. Fourth, all trends will integrate urban and rural areas. It turns out that when we make products, the first market is Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and the second market is second- and third-tier cities. But in the post-80s state, everyone has the opportunity, whether you are a boy in Suzhou or a boy in Gansu, Ningxia, you can buy a Nike limited shoe at the same time. The original pyramid brand model and marketing model have been completely overturned.
[Fourth Key Words] Rethink finance.
If the Chinese property class does not know how to invest in the next ten years, all your existing assets will shrink substantially. Because you have to know that you have 20 million yuan today, and ten years later, its purchasing power may only be 30% or XNUMX% of the current one. That is to say, you now have XNUMX million assets. If your company does not carry out a good financial reform, it may become a poor person.
Chinese Welfare Network