In the past period of time, there have been a lot of rumors surrounding North Korea. Since Kim Jong-un has not appeared in public for more than a month, claims from his "illness" to North Korea's "political instability" have flooded the media in South Korea and many countries around the world. What happened in North Korea? It seems that only time can give the answer.
However, by combing through some facts and major relations surrounding North Korea, we can roughly frame the scope of North Korean events, so that we will not be led by rumors.
First of all, Kim Jong-un did not show up for more than a month, which is indeed abnormal in North Korea. At the same time, North Korean newspapers and TV stations have reported as usual, which has made up for Kim Jong Un’s absence in public to a considerable extent, rather than implying that his absence has any additional significance. This is usually not a sign of major political changes in a country like North Korea. In contrast, Kim Jong-un's "illness" seems somewhat credible, and North Korean TV has also mentioned this. It is impossible to determine the extent of Kim Jong-un's "illness", but the fact is that the North Korean leader is only 31 years old.
The relationship between China and North Korea is colder than in the past, and everyone sees it. At the same time, North Korea showed enthusiasm for contact with South Korea, but yesterday the two sides exchanged fire and fire from warships in maritime border waters. During this period, there have been various rumors that North Korea will improve relations with South Korea, Japan, and even the United States. Some people believe that sooner or later North Korea will "fall to the United States."
Here is also a fact that needs to be pointed out, that is, under its current state system, it is more difficult for North Korea to improve relations with South Korea, Japan and the United States than it is to develop relations with China. Its differences with China are mainly concentrated on the nuclear issue, while its contradictions with South Korea, Japan and the United States are multiple. South Korea wants it to lead the unification of the Korean peninsula, and the United States wants to reform Pyongyang institutionally, which is unacceptable to the entire ruling group in North Korea.
North Korea has long shown its diplomatic strength and initiative, but its economic and military power is weak or not strong enough after all, and it is difficult to become a true leader of the situation on the peninsula. What has happened in North Korea recently and what happened around it is likely to be tactical and probably not of strategic significance. The United States is still very hostile to it, and South Korea is defensive and hesitant to it. Japan wants to gain diplomatic benefits from it, but it dares not go too far away from the United States and South Korea.
The complexity of China-North Korea relations is probably self-evident, but China is still North Korea’s most important and active neighbor, and China’s strategic significance to North Korea is irreplaceable.
If a subversive situation occurs in North Korea, it will be a serious challenge to all parties. I am afraid that no one party can say that it has the ability to control the situation by itself or with an ally. Such reckless action is undoubtedly a strategic risk.
North Korea seems to be a little anxious to break the current diplomatic deadlock. Some analysts in the West say that Pyongyang is now eager to attract attention from the outside world. Kim Jong-un's long-term facelessness may also be a card to achieve this goal. This view is an interesting statement.
Because North Korea is closed and mysterious, it has attracted the world's rich imagination of its internal politics. It may be reckless to assert what will or will never happen in North Korea. North Korea has persisted for so many years in a very harsh strategic environment for it, and it has probably formed a certain unique political capability. Considering this country as logical is less likely to make mistakes than seeing it as totally anti-logic.
To the outside world, the stability of North Korea is the part where the interests of all parties overlap. Some media always listen to wind and rain, and hope that the more bizarre the North Korean story, the better. This is not necessarily the way the politicians think. For South Korean media, which fabricates the most rumors about North Korea, it is probably the most appropriate for them to review a famous saying and apply it to South Korea, that is: Heaven is far away and North Korea is very close.