Worry or insightful? Taobao may have become a cancer tumor for China's future economy
The launch of Yitao.com will undoubtedly stifle the innovation power of many industries in China. All products that want to participate in the competition can only fight a price war. As a result, Yitao will lose the original motivation for the Chinese market, which is already rampant with fake goods. "The road may falter from now on, and become the most worthless link in the division of labor in the world!" Taobao used its monopoly position in the online shopping market for its own benefit to detonate major merchants into price wars, thereby reaping the benefits of the fisherman. On the surface, it is for the sake of online buyers, but the buyers are actually hurt!
I am also engaged in an e-commerce business. It is not that my business cannot go on to complain. I just saw a lot of terrible things about to emerge from the hot online shopping. . . . .
Looking at the products with sales of tens of thousands, and the piles of express shipments by express companies, what I feel is a feeling of wind and rain.
(1): How will people shop in the future?
The vast majority of people will use online shopping to shop. It also includes me. All my clothes, pants and many tools are purchased online, which is good, cheap, and convenient. It's really good. . .
Adverse effects①: A large number of shops, clothing stores, tool stores, digital stores, shopping malls, will be closed and closed, even if they are left behind, they will be struggling. It is difficult to have surplus profits. It is often seen on the Internet that some large markets, such as Beijing Zhongguancun and Shenzhen Huaqiangbei, have fallen into depression.
Adverse effects ②: Many retail shop owners lose their jobs, and many salespersons and promoters will lose their jobs. Many landlord’s shops will not be rented out. This group of people is the first to be affected by Taobao, and the impact is the most direct. .
(2) How will Taobao develop?
Small businesses will all die out, at least 90% of Taobao shops will die out, and the remaining 10% of large Taobao merchants will experience absolute super price wars. Vicious circle. . (Today I chatted with a boss who sells 80 pieces of Taobao a month. The huge volume of transactions on the surface and the boundless scenery are actually sad and bloody tears. The monthly sales of 80 pieces hardly make money, such as the three children's sweaters in Zhili. The ex-factory price is also more than 6 yuan. Now almost all are 70 yuan and free shipping. There are even XNUMX-XNUMX yuan in the free shipping. I am a manufacturer, and I may be able to save money if I am a manufacturer. If the money is doing it, the factory can’t start the factory, the workers have to work, and the employees have to eat. They are forced to make the best plan. If you don’t sell them, you will sell them. The monthly sales volume of XNUMX pieces is a breakeven. Do you even believe in losing money? I believe it.
The original intention of Taobao was to allow all sellers to directly face consumers, reduce intermediate links, and benefit consumers. The original intention of this establishment may be good, but Taobao evolved to this day and he himself did not expect to develop into this way. It will develop into the elimination of physical middlemen, and in the end even manufacturers have to compete in large numbers for survival. Many products in China have almost become unprofitable and have to be made, and the products appear in false prosperity everywhere. Even if the streets are everywhere, no one makes a profit. Even the manufacturers can't make a profit, at most they can make a little money, because the sales are too cheap. There are 9 yuan and 9 free shipping products everywhere (not counting how many manufacturers are forced to close their doors and eliminate them). There is no winner if a product is too cheap. A company that sells a lot but does not make money is an unethical company.
When all the merchants are placed on the same platform, the competition will be too cruel, just like there is only one supermarket in a town, and you have to open two, three, four or five The same is true for supermarkets. You can make money by opening one supermarket, and you can save money by opening two. You can only lose money by opening three, not to mention that there are more than tens of thousands on Taobao. Our entire Zhili Town feels as if it has been Taobao for the whole people. Corners and corners are all Taobao shops. Taobao is taking advantage of human weakness and greed to let us turn the originally reasonable industry into vicious competition, endless vicious competition. Eventually affect all industries in China.
(3) People of all ages can shop online
I didn’t expect online shopping to develop so fast. On that day, a customer came to my store to buy clothes. The total cost was 11 yuan and the cost was 8.9 yuan. He actually said that it was so expensive and only 7 yuan for free shipping on Taobao. , I was stunned. The national average shipping fee is at least XNUMX yuan. What kind of world is this? Is Taobao going to do all the business in the world?
I absolutely believe what he said, there are many people on Taobao who dare to sell things at a loss. Do they think that they will have no worries if they rush to the crown?
Wrong, I want to tell him that from now on, this style of clothes will never be higher than 9 yuan on Taobao. Someone will always dare to sell lower than you. Because he also wanted to rely on selling 8 yuan to make sales, and then he would have no worries. He didn’t know that after a few days, someone would want to rely on this to sell 7 yuan to drive sales, because there are too many sellers on Taobao. While they are rushing for sales, their wallets are shrinking with their monthly sales of tens of thousands, and many people are unable to sell them, and the entire industry is in a false and prosperous state of loss. . .
(4) Jack Ma, the invincible.
From the current point of view, I think Taobao's momentum will continue to develop, irresistible development. Jack Ma is a terrible person. I once admired him, but he will not be anymore. Jack Ma once said that it will be e-commerce in the future. Either there is no business. "
In 2013, Wanda CEO Wang Jianlin was not convinced and made a bet with him. The bet was 2013 million yuan, which means that if e-commerce exceeds XNUMX% of the retail industry in a few years, he will lose XNUMX million yuan. No more than Jack Ma lost him XNUMX million. . . Oh my god, this gambling game is terrible. He is XNUMX%. XNUMX% of the retail sales in China are sold by Taobao, and they are still sold at very low or no profit. Will affect the original price of the physical store,,, think about what will happen to China and what will happen to the Chinese economy. How many people and families can make a profit and support their families. I dare not think about what will happen to China without profit. When I was elected as the Economic Person of the Year in XNUMX, I remember seeing a video later in which the Vice-Chairman and Ma Yun had a heated conversation and debate. Maybe the country really had a premonition of a crisis. . After more than half a year, Taobao still has not been levied high taxes and fees. I believe it was persuaded by the incredible Ma Yun that he said it was not him who was great but the Internet. This is the inevitable outcome.
(5) Taobao continues to grow
To be honest, I can't resist Taobao shopping, even if I hate him, but it is really great. As Taobao continues to expand, I think that if the country does not control Taobao, Taobao’s turnover will increase by several times every year. There is no way that human weakness and greed can push us on the road of no return. As the daily parcels piled up by the express delivery, I used to pull a cart of parcels back every day, but now I am pulling three carts every day, sending thousands of parcels every day, and the momentum is still growing. Looking at the mountains of packages at his door, I I vaguely feel something,,,, Jack Ma is like an expert, but he is also a destroyer, he uses human greed (to make buyers greedy for cheap, sellers greedy to sell more, so that ordinary people want to come in greedily As a result, our originally healthy economy has become a leader in Taobao, very clever, and very clever. The atomic bomb is also man-made, and future destruction will surely occur. Taobao is like drug abuse that makes people irresistible, and Taobao is like a snowball that makes sellers unable to extricate themselves. The unprofitable snowball will become bigger and bigger, and vicious competition is inevitable. In 2008, Jack Ma once arguably surpassed Wal-Mart, when his Taobao turnover was only 1000 billion. And Wal-Mart’s 3.5 trillion yuan, Taobao, and Taobao can definitely surpass Wal-Mart, or even ten times that of Wal-Mart, because its business model is seamless. . . It's just that the consequences are too serious. Maybe Jack Ma himself did not expect Taobao to become like this. It is almost a fact that the small businesses are dying out now. The remaining large manufacturers are still shopping, and there is no way. If you don’t work hard, you will die. No one is willing to withdraw, even though the profits are already very low. .
(6) The chronic effects of Taobao
I think that as the retail industry in all walks of life closes, many industries will be affected. The first group of people affected now are retail companies like us. . Although it has not yet reached the point of complete death, business will become more and more difficult as time goes by. . Self-employed individuals will not earn money and affect other industries, such as (just make a few analogies)
1. Affect the catering industry: As many retail shopkeepers close their doors and have no food to eat, they will definitely find ways to survive. Perhaps opening a restaurant is a good choice. Then there will be more restaurants and competition will be greater, and they are already suffering from the current self-employed The boss didn’t make much money and the number of diners decreased. Fortunately, you came to compete with me. (It’s strange that there are more than a dozen Chai Turkey restaurants in Neijiang, Sichuan)
2. Affect the entertainment and recreational consumer industry: For example, KTV. Nowadays, there are more and more KTVs in each city. Many bosses in this city have entered KTV because of poor business. This has led to a serious surplus of KTV in this city. Today, KTV is no longer profitable. It's a good picture. Many boxes were left empty all night and few people went to sing.
3. Affect the hotel accommodation industry: How many accommodations are in each city, and the occupancy rate is geometrical. I don’t need to say more about it. Don’t use some of your local hot accommodations or KTVs to refute me. What I said is Situation in most areas
Well, I have talked about a few affected industries that you may not understand or believe, let me talk about the direct industries. . Today, I saw some netizens who were ridiculously stupid, hehe said that Taobao only affected the interests of opening retail stores and rent collection by shop owners, and has nothing to do with others. . It is ridiculous to say what will promote the development of manufacturing. . I think he is completely a layman. The younger brother has been in business for ten years. He knows that the retail industry is closely related to each industry, and all industries are closely connected, and they are indispensable. One place is damaged and one after another suffers. .
Let's talk about the damage to the manufacturing industry. For example, our Zhili Garment Factory, do you think there is no damage?
In the cruel competition of Taobao, one sales myth has been created one after another. The monthly sales volume of hundreds of thousands of clothes has increased. Do you know how many garment factories have been closed down by this vicious competition in recent years? How many workers have been laid off? However, those garment factories that sell hundreds of thousands of pieces do you think they have really developed? They are so wrong, they can barely maintain, believe it? Earning a few dollars per piece of clothing has not been developed at all. It is a tragedy in the clothing manufacturing industry. There is no winner. . .
Let's talk about other manufacturers, such as energy-saving lamp factory, please forgive me for swearing "Mom, one more energy-saving lamp is also free shipping" not to make money, but to make sales. . Tens of thousands are sold every month. Do you think it's a game upgrade? . I really don’t know who is good for such an unethical company to do so. . Free shipping for more than one piece, ZTO Express will cost 5 yuan to send a letter. . It is his business that he is losing money, but you disrupt the entire industry and cause other manufacturers to be unable to sell and close the door. It is your fault. . He thought he could sit back and relax by rushing to the crown?
Little did they know that this industry has been severely disrupted, and the energy-saving lamp industry has been completely destroyed, even if it is fortunate to sell three yuan in the future, it is already a tasteless industry.
Comrades, the manufacturing industry in each industry has been severely damaged, but not everyone has seen that the manufacturing industry is developing very well. Wealth will soon be in the hands of a very small number of people. As more manufacturers close down, the unemployment rate will increase. More people can’t afford clothes, can’t afford to buy restaurants, and can’t afford beauty. , Look down on movies, can't afford a house, can't afford a massage, can't sing KTV. In turn, the above industries have slowly become sluggish, and intensified. Caused the economic crisis of the entire country. . People will have no business to do, this is Jack Ma himself said.
4. Low-price competition on Taobao is the prevalence of a large number of junk products. Enterprises only pursue price, not quality. In the future, it will be more and more difficult to buy some genuine products from the Internet, and it is more and more difficult for merchants who want to make high-quality products to survive. If you don’t believe me, look at the old brands from the past. If you don’t believe me, you can look at how many Tmall stores that you bought in the past few years have closed down, or look at the stores with a few crowns and gold crowns in the past, and how many monthly sales are now? The once awesome women's clothing store "one percent of mine" I saw a few days ago, the monthly sales of the best models were only over XNUMX pieces.
(7) The voice of rebuttal turned off for me
People who retort similar posts, I want to smoke you, ①Some people say that I open a restaurant and it will not be affected. I ask you if the retail store dies and the store is closed, will the self-employed person have no money and will come to eat you? Does the landlord have no rent to collect, will he visit your restaurant often?
②My salary for beauty is not high. Taobao can increase the value of RMB and can buy more things. . I ask you the self-employed owner, and the landlord owner, and now there are also restaurant owners who have reduced their income and cannot do beauty care. Will you also reduce guests and income? Your boss's poor business will you not be unemployed?
③I am selling the house and it doesn't matter to me. . Well, let me ask you, the business of self-employed, landlord owners, restaurant owners, and beauty salon owners have all been affected. Will your house be unsold? (It is probably a sign that the house is so hard to sell now.)
④Some people say this: If the manufacturing industry develops well, all the spare labor can be used to produce and develop new industries. This is the inevitable result of the times. . . Taobao's existence must be the reason. . . Sounds good
Oh. . . . Speaking of lightness, all the spare labor is to produce, and to develop new industries? Come, you come to point out what kind of factory to open a road? What to produce? What kind of new industry is developing?
Have you considered? Guiqiu for advice. . . Do you know that one factory can supply all of China? In theory, only one factory is enough for an industry.
The state does everything possible to solve the employment problem is to use all kinds of small enterprises, small factories, and you will be better off, and encourage more people to find another way out. Where is the way out. You show the way. Easier said than done.
⑤There is even more funny, can you come to deliver the courier if you don’t sell things, or open a Taobao shop, I’m so dead, do you know how many packages a courier can deliver in a day? You let all the unemployed people have express delivery? I also opened a Taobao shop. The small Taobao shops are almost dead.
Everyone, our country has a large population. Our country does not produce oil or natural gas. There are many people and little land. The vast majority of people in our country need some profit from commodity circulation to support themselves. And family. Other industries are also closely related. Now, Taobao will take away the jobs of these people and starve you to death. . The chain reaction of all walks of life appears, and the Chinese economy will inevitably have problems over time. .
(8) Foreign experience
Anti-dumping (familiar with this term)
It is a crime to sell products too low. . If a commodity is really cheap to sell to consumers, so that consumers can get benefits, then why should the governments of developed countries object? The governments of other countries must guarantee the interests of certain links and not let you break the rules. . Can't sell goods too cheaply. .
Everything should be reasonable, reasonable profit, reasonable competition, reasonable sales, but Taobao's search rules
This has become unreasonable. ①: Most of Taobao’s products have no reasonable profit, and many of them are not making money or are selling at a loss. Obviously wrong ②: I have not seen reasonable competition at all. Small businesses have been shuffled out, and big businesses have just started vicious competition, which is obviously unreasonable. . ③Reasonable sales are not normal. There are usually only a few or a dozen of each product now showing a huge amount, and the others have no sales. The business in China has been taken over by a small number of people, which is obviously unreasonable. .
Sum up and look forward to the future
Perhaps some of the above-mentioned evil results have not yet arrived. It is only a matter of time before the Taobao system remains the same. At least the physical retail industry is about to close down, and shops that cannot be rented out have already appeared. The growing popularity of Taobao will slowly devour all industries, leaving more people unemployed, more factories closed, salespersons laid off, workers unemployed, and wealth is increasingly concentrated in the hands of fewer people. The government should take care of it. Please don’t use some of your local prosperous retail stores to refute me, or say some other way out. What I want to say today is that most of us have no technology and no ability. What about this majority of people in the future. Maybe some people can find a way out and seize opportunities, but what about these people? Starve to death? After all, it is not a minority, but a large part.
For many objections, I can only say that our perspective is different. Many of us want to generate income in the circulation of commodities. How many people will lose their jobs directly from manufacturers to consumers on Taobao? Although we have benefited for the time being, can you think about this model of selling at a loss for long?
Don't think about long wages and low prices in the future. Long wages are a good dream when companies are unable to produce high value-added products when it is difficult to make money.
It affects the whole body.
E-commerce originated in the West, and why there is no such model as Taobao in Western countries. It is derived from the norms of the Western system. This kind of one-time charge and low-price competition is absolutely not allowed, let alone the proliferation of fakes.
What are the hazards of what Taobao is doing now are as follows:
XNUMX. Let the dishonest industry grow wildly. For self-interest, let the sellers of Taobao bazaar brush credit. Couldn't Taobao manage this matter? Otherwise, if Taobao really wants to build an honest shopping platform, it is not difficult to make a difference. But I would rather choose not to act! why? Free is the killer for Taobao to gain today's market position. It is very clear about the lethality of free! If the credit is not granted, many new buyers will not be able to gain a place in the fierce competition under the current Taobao rules, and of course they will not enter Taobao to open stores. No one new people come to open a store, how does Taobao's platform develop?
XNUMX. Misleading young people and advocating everyone to start a business! The Taobao market is dead, and letting the C store go all the way is just to attract more traffic and achieve the purpose of building a Taobao mall. Taobao Bazaar is actually dead. I know some small Taobao sellers. In fact, very few can make a deal. According to rough statistics, the actual transaction amount of Taobao Bazaar may not reach XNUMX% of the amount paid by Alipay. Why? Alipay’s transaction payments are actually mostly payments made by sellers in shop C. Most of the buyers in Taobao bazaar get into the dark early in the morning, but the income is actually pitiful. Taobao drew a pie for them to fight for food, but the food is actually pitiful.
XNUMX. Price wars that set off market competition. One scouring based on price will become a malignant tumor that stifles corporate creativity.
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