Vision or gimmick? The general trend of the mobile Internet is gone, artificial intelligence is the future
When the whole world is busy deploying the "mobile Internet", someone dared to jump out and say, "The mobile Internet is over." This person is Yang Ning, the president of the China Youth Angel Association and the founding partner of Lebo Capital. In the world described by Yang Ning, robots are a wonderful thing. We no longer need to do housework, receive packages, and drive. We can have more time to read, watch movies, date, and write. However, waiters, drivers, and couriers are also unemployed. Robots will become more and more powerful. How can humans win the race against machines?
When the job is lost to the robot...
ask:In the era of intelligent robots, what else do humans need to do?
Yang Ning:Management and creativity.
ask:Do you manage robots?
Yang Ning:No, it's the manager. The government and law enforcement agencies still have to exist. Because people have a sense of autonomy, some people choose to do good deeds and others choose to do bad deeds, but they still commit crimes. These cannot be handled by robots.
ask:Will the robot be conscious?
Yang Ning:Conscious robots will not appear for at least 10 years. (American artificial intelligence pioneer and futurist Ray Kurzweil predicts that by the mid-20s, humans will successfully reverse engineer the human brain. By the end of the 20s, computers will be capable of human intelligence. By 2045, artificial intelligence can be like the human brain, not only calculating, composing, but also driving, writing, making decisions, appraising treasures and even socializing.)
ask:If one day robots become conscious, will humans be destroyed by robots?
Yang Ning:What is a consciousness robot? It's what Buddhism says, "I". Consciousness is the self, which can produce emotions, emotions, and "seven emotions and six desires." If you break the arm of a consciousness robot, he will be angry like a human being. This is consciousness, and this is the source of emotions. Only higher animals have consciousness and emotions. Why do higher animals have consciousness? Because higher animals have brains, or nerve nodes, only enough nerve nodes can produce consciousness. Elon Musk recently expressed this concern. He believes that with the continuous development of artificial intelligence, robots will become smarter and smarter, and their intelligence will surpass that of humans, which will eventually cause unpredictable harm and threats to humans. I think his statement is wrong. The reason is: any program can only create a program that is simpler than its own. (Ray Kurzweil: "Singularity" refers to the fusion of humans and other species (objects). By 2045, the singularity moment will appear. If humans are completely integrated with the machines they produce, then the world will be totally different. From an evolutionary perspective, this will represent the emergence of a new species: the Singularity.)
What is the origin of our consciousness? Some people say that it was produced by our program, which means that it was produced by our DNA. I disagree with this point of view. Our body, all cells, bones, muscles, and hair, are like computer hardware. So what is the procedure? Programs are software that runs on this hardware, which means that our DNA is software that runs on programs. Consciousness is generated by these electrons in the computer, that is to say, the computer software tells the electrons how to go, which chip to go through in this circuit, which path to go through, and how to go. So electrons are running in this chip or a whole bunch of chips. In running complex paths, consciousness is generated. The same is true for us. When our programs are running, we are also a very complex system. The nervous system also passes through electrons, and electrons run in our neurons. There are substances. Electrons run here. In our blood runs a set of chemical systems, such as the hormonal system and hormone system. His chemical system is also a line running there. In the process of running, consciousness arises.
ask:What is the biggest crisis of mankind?
Yang Ning:resident Evil.The biochemical crisis of genetic engineering is more dangerous to us. People may be turned into zombies.Zombies are agents, but unconscious. He can open the door, make simple judgments, know where people are, and chase them. He looks alive, but he is dead, without soul and consciousness.
The real threat to people does not come from the big guys, but the little guys, viruses.Resident Evil is generally said to have originated from a virus. There are two ways to modify DNA in genetic engineering, one is to modify the fertilized egg. It is to take out the DNA from the nucleus, insert it again, and change the chromosome directly. The other is modified body DNA. For example, a person has tens of trillions of cells, how can these cells be re-brushed like a machine, using viruses. The virus will replicate and can invade all your cells. In the end, the DNA of each cell's nucleus is changed again, which is equivalent to you being "brushed" once and becoming a completely different you.
Now there is something more fierce than viruses, a new living body, but this living body is not based on DNA. Have you heard of mad cow disease? Mad cow disease is based on this living body, so it is terrible. It is a completely different substance.
Degeneration of libido, immortality of mankind?
ask:Robots may be able to do everything on behalf of people, only love cannot be replaced. But how will the connotation and form of love be changed?
Yang Ning:From the perspective of artificial intelligence alone, the impact on love will not be too great, but from the perspective of genetic engineering, it will have a greater impact. The mechanism of aging in human genes has now been discovered. The reason why we age is because our DNA is constantly dividing and duplicating, but our DNA may lose something in the process of duplication. Just like a copier, the paper becomes blurry once copied. When your DNA replicates too much, more and more loopholes may appear, which will lead to aging.
People have now successfully experimented to extend the life span of fruit flies to one year, which is equivalent to extending the life of a person to 2000 years. (Ray Kurzweil: The appearance of the singularity is, in a sense, the "immortality" of mankind.)  When people can live that long, how will marriage, love and sex change? Having a marriage will become an enviable thing, because it is definitely a soul mate who can make up his mind to get married. Just like the Taoist couple in a lot of Xiuxian's novels?
Dao couples are partners on the spiritual level, what about the physical level?I think the human need for sex will degenerate.After living so long, is there still a need to breed offspring? In that case the earth would explode. (Li Shufu: I think human beings should study two technologies: one is outer space technology and the other is life science. A thorough study of these two issues is the future of mankind.)  If you don't want to breed offspring, you definitely don't want to have sex. So I said that it takes a lot of courage to get married in the future, because it may be together for two thousand years; to have a child, it may take more courage.
ask:What about the relationship between people? People and people may have known each other for thousands of years.
Yang Ning:I think our interpersonal relationship may be more indifferent, but for your close relatives and friends, it may be more cherished.
ask:At that stage of technological development, are there fewer and fewer things people can do?
Yang Ning:The significance of the development of science and technology is to liberate a large amount of labor, and people can do more things that interest them. Just like Dubai, if you are a foreigner, you will have to do everything. The Dubai government distributes all food and houses to citizens. If you don't want to do things, you can choose your life is simple and easy. But many people in Dubai want to do more and pursue greater wealth.
ask:The intelligent age is changing the way of life and thinking of mankind at the same time. What is the most precious quality of mankind in the future?
Yang Ning:Creativity and creativity are very important, because work without creativity may be replaced by robots. The other is communication skills. We are the generation online, and may be more able to use the Internet to communicate than the old people in the past, but in the future, people need to organize languages that robots can understand more easily and communicate better with robots.
The following is Yang Ning's spicy comment:
"All the current giant companies, including Google, Facebook, BAT... will not survive in the artificial intelligence era, because the company is huge, and the evolution of life is weak. This is an innovation dilemma. Just like the collapsed Kodak, The crisis-ridden Nokia." But at the same time, the company's listing age will become smaller, the cycle will be shorter and shorter, and the life span will be shorter and shorter.
Who can live to 2024?
Google:Not optimistic about the future of Google, because Google's humanistic literacy is too low, making products for people to use.Seeing Google's driverless cars, would you want to drive? Or the Tesla who opened my door? What do you think is the difference between these two cars? Obviously, one is for people.
Tesla:Musk is the successor of Jobs and will be one of the entrepreneurs who have the greatest impact on mankind after Jobs. He is studying how to move people to Mars.
apple:If Jobs is still alive, he can still change the world. But Jobs also had a golden age of combat effectiveness. Look at Zhao Yun, he never lost a battle in his life, and finally grew old, lost a battle, and was saved by a few young people.
Xiaomi:I am more optimistic about Lei Jun. First, Lei Jun was from a technical background. Second, he was very successful in imitating Steve Jobs and supplemented the humanistic qualities of the product. Even when you see him walking around at the new product launch conference, he is imitating Jobs, I He is more optimistic about his layout in the field of intelligence.
Haier:Haier's transformation is like the rebirth of the eagle. If successful, it will become a very powerful company.
Cheetah, Meituan, Jingdong, etc.:They are not easy because they live within the range of others. But many smart companies I voted for were out of range and couldn't even hit them.
Back to reality from the future, we rethink the meaning of new technology for business. New technology disrupts not only production methods, but also organizational management methods (Mike Porter: Companies should no longer be limited to technology itself, but should focus on changes in the nature of competition.) , even triggering people to rethink the relationship between humans and the world. (Li Shufu: We must look up and see how we are going in the future. We always think about branding and making money, but we can't solve the fundamental problem. Ultimately, if we humans want to find our future on the earth?)  There was once a story: the inventor of chess presented his invention to the king of his country. The emperor was very happy and asked him what reward he wanted? The inventor said: "I hope to get rice according to the following rules. Place one grain in the first grid, two grains in the second grid, four grains in the third, and so on.” Ray Kurzweil in "The Age of Intelligent Machines" "Exponential growth is not worth mentioning at first, but after entering the chessboard, we completely confused our intuition, because this scientist can finally get 40 billion grains of rice, which is higher than Mount Everest." The speed of running forward may be more unimaginable than the majestic Mount Everest, so instead of competing with machines, it is better to bring machines to compete with others. The future belongs to those who are good at using machines.
Giants are taking action. Zuckerberg said in a speech at Tsinghua University that in the next decade, the development of artificial intelligence will also be the company's strategic focus. (Zuckerberg: The next decade will develop three points: the first is to connect the whole world; the second is to develop artificial intelligence; and the third is to develop virtual reality.)  The mysterious GoogleX is said to be working on 100 future high-tech ideas. Baidu will also use artificial intelligence as a breakthrough in the future. (At present, Baidu’s artificial intelligence capabilities have begun to be applied to speech, image, and text recognition, as well as natural language and semantic understanding. "Equivalent to (machine) has eyes, ears, and mouth"; Baidu’s "open cloud" is a big Large-scale distributed computing and ultra-large-scale storage cloud; "Data Factory" is Baidu's software ability to organize and query massive data.)  Zhou Hongyi peddled his "IOT (Internet of Everything)" theory everywhere. But how does artificial intelligence affect our lives? In order to make this abstract concept clearer, we asked Yang Ning to describe the life scene of you and me in one day ten years later.
One day ten years later:
This is not a movie, but a real day in 2024
Scene XNUMX: Get up
Smart products:Room intelligent system, wake up robot (Xu Yangsheng, President of The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen): Whether a smart device is a robot or not, there are three criteria for judging: perception ability, cognitive ability and action ability.)
My entire room is an intelligent system. This system perceives based on my work and rest time that my sleep should now be in the shallowest state, and now I wake up most comfortable. Then the lights slowly turned on, and the voice of the robot responsible for waking up slowly became louder. I opened my eyes and began to feel this beautiful day. Thanks to this intelligent system, it allows me to feel the joy of waking up naturally every day. Sitting on the bed, stretching, I followed the robot to the bathroom, the dental appliances and shower were all ready, and I washed myself comfortably.
Scene XNUMX: Breakfast
Smart products:Robot babysitter, smart dining table
The good breakfast time has begun, and a good sleep makes me have a good appetite. The robot nanny matched today's breakfast according to the built-in nutrition preparation program: vegetable salad, whole wheat bread, fried eggs, bacon, milk and orange juice. I'm used to reading today's news at breakfast time. The wall opposite me can be converted into a smart screen when I need it, and it now displays the technology, investment and other information I like to read. By the way, the mobile phone has become an antique collection in my family.
At this time, the doorbell rang, and my wife smiled at me happily. Needless to say, she must have bought something "good" again. The express mail she ordered has been delivered to the door by the express system. The robot nanny opens the door and signs for the express. The express is not delivered by a courier, but delivered by a driverless car. The system loaded by the driverless car recognizes the final destination of the express based on the chip on the express, and connects to the house intelligence system to notify the robot. The nanny receives the mail. The robot nanny will send a special code to the driverless car to inform the delivery task has been completed.
Scene XNUMX: Going out to work
Smart products:smart car
When I walked out, the smart car had stopped at the door and waited at the time set by the built-in program. The car is a driverless smart car. I choose "Go to the company", the car starts, chooses the smoothest route according to the built-in transportation system, and calculates the arrival time. After optimizing the time, I notified the company's intelligent conference system, what time will the meeting room be ready, and notify today's participants of what time will be "present". I don’t need to do the rest. I look at the documents on the way, make a few decisions, and get to the company immediately.
Scene XNUMX: Company meeting
Smart products:Smart meeting room
When I arrived at the company, the smart meeting room was ready. Several participants from the headquarters walked into the conference room together. The meeting intelligent system informs participants in other places to access the meeting system, and their images are intelligently delivered to the meeting room. This image is three-dimensional, as if a real person appeared in the meeting room. Then, a few real people and a few "avatars" had a heated discussion together, and a few clones were on the other side of the earth at this time. We were very efficient. All the discussions were completed within 1 hour. In the end, I even clapped with these "clone" to celebrate another problem.
Scene XNUMX: Working lunch
Smart products:Restaurant robot
There is a business cooperation to discuss at noon. I have an appointment with my partner at a nearby restaurant. The restaurant does not have a waiter, they are all robots, and the managers of the restaurant are still humans. Because I come often, I have a good relationship with the restaurant owner. He told me that since replacing the waiters with robots, the cost of personnel management has been greatly reduced. At the same time, if the service standards are set, the robots will strictly enforce them, there will be no complaints, no quarrels, and everything is truly harmonious.
Scene XNUMX: Shopping
Smart products:Smart factory, shopping mall robot
There is a business event tomorrow, I have to buy a new outfit. In order to fit, I should go by myself. In fact, I quite enjoy the feeling of shopping in the mall. The mall now feels good. The customers are all humans, and the waiters are all robots. There will be no embarrassment of a bunch of waiters staring at you when there are few people. I select a store and tell the robot my height and weight data, as well as the colors and fabrics I like. The robot enters the data, places a good order, and sends it to the smart factory in the background. Nowadays, shopping malls are all experiential. Choose samples in the front and personalize them directly based on user data. It is a shopping experience in front of the store and the factory behind. After half an hour, the customized clothing can be taken away.
Scene seven: watching a movie
Smart products:Somatosensory Cinema
After a busy day, I really want to take a break. I suddenly want to go to the beach. Sun and beach are the best way to relax. There is a somatosensory cinema in the mall where the clothes are customized. Five minutes later, I was already on the sunny beaches of Hawaii, and I could feel the heat of the sun, the softness of the sand, and the sea water slowly surging up on my feet.
Scene eight: learning
Smart products:Robot Teacher
I am very interested in French lately, but there are a lot of things during the day, so my best time to study is at 11 o'clock at night. At this time, I have handled my work and I am still more energetic. I opened the learning course I ordered, and the robot teacher appeared on the bedroom wall and started today's learning according to my last learning progress. During the learning process, I can practice dialogues and scenarios with the robot teacher. I am quite confident and the spoken French with this teacher is relatively pure.
Remark 1.2.3:"The Singularity Is Near: When humans go beyond the limits of biology" Author: American artificial intelligence pioneer, futurist Ray Kurzweil
Remarks 4 and 6:Speech by Li Shufu at the Salon of Ding Zhaozhong, Nobel Prize Winner in Physics of the Chinese Enterprise Club on the afternoon of October 2014, 10
Remark 5:"Harvard Business Review" October 2014 Michael Porter's latest article "Top Ten Strategic Choices Companies Must Make in the Internet of Things Era" written by Jianjun Niu
Remark 7:Zuckerberg's speech at Tsinghua University on October 10
Remark 8:Beijing Times, June 2014, 6 "Secret of the Technology Emperor Behind Robin Li: Artificial Intelligence is the Future Direction"
Remark 9:Xu Yangsheng, President of The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), gave a speech "Humans and Robots Build a Future Society" at the 2013 Tencent WE Conference