The article on the Bloomberg website of the United States on October 10, original title: China's very, very large country's growth will slow down as it becomes rich. In this regard, China's slowing down is undisputed. In the eyes of many experts, this means that China will not replace the United States as the world's largest economy, like the Soviet Union and Japan before it. In the 30s, experts predicted that the Soviet Union's economy would soon surpass the United States, and in the 60s they predicted that Japan's economy would surpass the United States. But none of these predictions were fulfilled.
China is clearly slowing down. But if it were compared with the Soviet Union and Japan, it would not be reliable. The reason is simple: volume. China is too big, and only a far more severe change than Japan or even the Soviet Union has experienced can prevent it from becoming the largest economy.
In 2013, China had a population of 13.57 billion and the United States had a population of 3.16 million, or 4.29 to 1. If the population is counted as weight, imagine the United States as an ordinary American weighing 191 pounds, and China as an adult male grizzly bear weighing 819 pounds. If the population is counted as height, the United States is like the 707-foot JPMorgan Chase Group headquarters building in New York, while China is 316 feet taller than the current world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa. It can also be viewed from a more realistic perspective: if every Chinese of working age works 40 hours a week and 50 weeks a year, they only need to create $9.15 per hour, and China’s economy is larger than that of the United States.
If China fails to become the largest economy, it will not only be due to the economic slowdown, but also because of a much larger collapse than has occurred in recent world history. This is not impossible, but the possibility is too small. From the perspective of purchasing power parity, China is already the largest. Today it is still the largest trading country and manufacturing country. Those who say that China's economic hegemony is not inevitable, either are entangled in some trivial technical details, or they have forgotten the simple but important fact of China's huge size.