"Chinatown"-Official media of Chinese Australians

The Australian media "The Age" reported on today's headline that two economists—LindsayDavid and Philip Soos—reported that the Australian real estate market is facing the biggest bubble in history. If a bubble occurs, the Melbourne area will become an "epicenter" zone. They condemned the real estate industry and politicians for denying the housing bubble because they considered insufficient housing.

The documents submitted by the two economists to the upcoming parliamentary investigation claim that Australian housing is actually oversupply, which is the same as the situation faced by the United States before the previous market crash, while Melbourne has the most serious oversupply phenomenon. The place. According to their forecast, there are 12.3 more properties in Melbourne.

David and Seuss stated in the document, "Contrary to the analysis of vested interests, the data clearly shows that Australia is in the largest real estate bubble. Because the implementation of necessary reforms may cause the bubble to burst, policymakers are caught in a dilemma. ."

They also believe that the current bubble is worse than the situation faced in the 19s, 80s, mid-20s and late 20s. They wrote in the document, “Australia’s economic history and related international events show that the real estate bubble can quickly increase the number of unsold properties and pierce the shortage of housing. If the bubble occurs, it will lead to rising unemployment and employment. Insufficiency, total demand and the net number of overseas immigrants decrease, population growth declines, and investment real estate is oversupply, which puts further pressure on rental prices.

Lower real estate prices, lower rental prices, and lower real estate sales will become the three major problems facing investors, who face losses in income from sales and rent. Melbourne is the most likely place to produce this catastrophic result, and Perth will also face severe difficulties. At present, housing prices in all capital cities are increasing faster than rent, income, inflation, and GDP. The specific events that may trigger the real estate bubble are still unknown. However, the "bloodbath" in the housing market is almost certain to happen.

The number of surplus houses in each state announced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics:

NSW 40,537

Victoria 123,242


South Australia 28,302

Western Australia-44,509

It is reported that Finance Minister Hodge triggered a national debate on housing prices this month, and he himself rejected the existence of a housing bubble. And his report contradicts the warnings given by the head of the department Fraser and the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Stevens.

In this regard, David and Seuss said that even some low-level officials could predict that rampant borrowing has made the possible real estate collapse worse. Their proposal to cool the market is to implement a national land tax. In addition, the federal government can also collect land value-added taxes.

In addition, today the Australian media also disclosed that Australia's wealth gap is widening, mainly due to housing wealth. The average annual income of the top quintile in Australia is A$23.2, and they earn almost five times as much as the bottom quintile. Although this may seem unfair, it is far from having wealth.

Because Australia's wealthiest quintile households have 70 times as much wealth as the poorest households. The top quintile of households in Australia has an average of more than A$200 million in wealth, while the bottom quintile of households has less than A$4. Because on average, wealthy families in Australia own at least several houses.

Recently, Australian bankers have been selling buildings, and based on the past housing market growth in Australia, this curve should have reached the top. If the Australian housing market collapses, the Treasurer will be the first to be sad. At the beginning, he strongly supported housing price rises, had several properties, and discriminated against people with low wages who could not afford housing. Once the bubble bursts, how can he revive the Australian economy? .

News compiled from "Times"


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