Research says: Melbourne residential housing market is expected to fall in the next three years
"Chinatown"-Official media of Chinese Australians
According to a research institution, due to the oversupply of Melbourne's residential housing, in 2018, in real terms, Melbourne house prices will fall by double digits.
According to Domain News, in BIS Sharapnel's 2015-2018 residential property outlook report, it is expected that the median price of Melbourne apartments will fall by 12% in the next three years. BIS Shrapnel senior manager Angie Zigomanis said that in 2015-2018 , The median price of real estate will increase by 4%, of which the increase in 2015-2016 was 5%, but the median price in the next two years will fall by a large margin, which will offset the increase.
Zigomanis said, "After taking into account inflation, we expect house prices to actually fall by 4%. However, due to the oversupply of housing, housing prices will fall even more. The median price drop within three years is expected to reach 4%, or by actual value. It will fall by 12%."
At present, the Melbourne housing market is beginning to experience oversupply, but it is mainly the oversupply of the apartment market, not the detached house market.
Zigomanis also said, "The current number of new real estate construction is still lower than the previous peak of housing construction, but the construction of new apartments is repeatedly reaching new highs."
It is expected that the housing market in Sydney is expected to fall. In this regard, Zigomanis said, “In the past two to three years, the price increase in Sydney has been much higher than that in Melbourne. Once there is a downward trend, the price of affordable housing in Sydney may fall more than Melbourne.”
This research institution predicts that Melbourne house prices will rise in the new fiscal year 2015-2016, but due to the increase in interest rates in 2016-2017, house prices will fall, which will offset the previous increase. In an environment where the rising trend of house prices is easing, it is expected that the housing market in Melbourne's mid-range area will be the least affected.
At the same time, BIS Sharapnel predicts that due to the completion of new housing, by June 2018, the median price of Melbourne properties will fall by 6% over the three years. Of course, the decline in the number of overseas immigrants has also led to an oversupply of housing.
Andrew Wilson, a senior economist with the Domain team, said buyers in Melbourne's eastern suburbs will continue to speculate on prices. He also said that the current rising trend of housing prices in the inner city has been curbed, and the supply and demand of apartment houses have reached a balance. However, the oversupply of real estate apartments in the eastern suburbs is still a problem. In the past two years, Melbourne's house prices have soared. But I still believe that next year, Melbourne's house prices will increase by about 7%, and there will not be double-digit increases.
News compiled from "Domain"
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