Brick: China's stock market rose at 5000 points, is it too late to enter the stock market?
"Chinatown"-Official media of Chinese Australians
You know, on what occasions we chatted recently, we will talk about the stock market in the end. Because I do economic news all year round, more people have recently asked me "Is it too late to enter the stock market?" At a meeting today, a beautiful colleague asked me, what stocks should I buy now? I said, if I have the ability to answer this question, will I still sit in the office with you for a meeting?
Although it is difficult to answer the question "Is it too late to enter the stock market", I am still willing to give some thought to this question, otherwise I am too sorry for my "professional work". Before that, tell a few stories.
"My girlfriend bought China CNR when it was 5 yuan. It was liquidated at 40 yuan the day before yesterday. She quit her job yesterday and just broke up with me." This is not my story, but an online joke. But it does not rule out that this is true. Someone must buy at 5 yuan and sell at 40 yuan. As for whether the girlfriend proposes to break up, it depends on how much stock she bought in total. If she had bought 1000 yuan, she now has 8000 yuan. If she bought 1 million yuan, she now has 8 million yuan. When your girlfriend's assets have soared by 8 times, and your assets are still in place, obviously, from assets to IQ to appearance, you have no longer matched her.
This story shows that the bull market is not only a tool for the drastic redistribution of wealth, but also a tool for redistributing "girlfriends".
An old lady invested millions of pension funds in the stock market last year, and then went to the brokerage business hall to listen to news every day. Recently, her account has been "tens of millions".
This story sounds outrageous, does the old lady use financial leverage and luckily use it right? But the person who told me this story insisted that it was true.
At present, this record of the old lady has caused "disharmony" in the family: the children of very high social status are very angry. They have read many years of books and worked hard. After a year, they are not as earning as the retired old lady. Lots of odds.
This story shows that the stock market does not believe in education, knowledge, and age. In addition, late bloomers can be achieved through the stock market.
Three months ago, I asked an executive of a company: "How about your company's stock."
He curled his lips and told me: "I don't understand, don't touch our company's stock..."
It can be seen how iron our relationship is. Of course I listen to him.
When we talked about this topic, their company's stock price was more than 13 yuan. Today, it is more than 20 yuan.
As a person who reports on economic news all the year round, some people always say that I have the opportunity to make money by trading stocks-you see, I have been in contact with the vice president of the company, and I still have difficulty making money by buying stocks.
Think about what this story tells you.
Several people engaged in investment ate together, one of them was a foreigner.
The Chinese have no confidence in the future of A shares and believe that the risks are already great. But outsiders are determined to see more. He has already made a lot of money in this round of Chinese bull market and believes that he can make more. Even if the stock market adjusts, it will still rise.
Why is it optimistic? This person who came from the peninsula country to the mainland country thinks that the mainland is too big, the market is too big, the total economy is too big, and there are too many stories to tell.
The combination of story 4 and story 3 shows that "distance produces beauty".
After the story is told, start to analyze:
2. In terms of public sentiment, the words "bubble", "economic downturn", "casino", and "price-earnings ratio is too high" can not scare Chinese investors. None of this will work for China's stock market. The Chinese stock market belongs to people who are bold and lucky-no one admits that they are bad luck before being proved to be bad luck. There will be more "private funds" invested in the stock market. As long as there is a steady stream of people who are bullish on the stock market, you will have a chance to follow along.
3. In terms of trends, there is no doubt that A shares are already in a bull market, and there is no official reason or intention to suppress the bull market. Except for the risks of “technical adjustment” that come at any time, the progress of the bull market still shows no signs of change. Therefore, now entering the stock market, although it is possible to become a successor in the adjustment at any time, but the bull market trend is still macroscopically, there are certainly opportunities for making money.
4. From a financial point of view, after the last round of bull market ended in 2008, China's money printing machines were running at full capacity and the money supply increased a lot. At the end of December 2008, China's broad money supply balance was 12 trillion, and by the end of December 47.52, this figure was already 2014 trillion. In short, there are a lot of money in the Chinese market, and they are lurking in many places. The bull market may wake them up, once they are teased, 12 points? 122.8? 6000 points? Who said it was impossible?
5. In terms of investment, except for first-tier cities, the property market is basically unlikely to continue to rise. The golden age of investment in the property market should have come to an end-this is a very different point from the bull market before 2008. That time, in the context of a considerable amount of money entering the property market, the Shanghai stock index still pushed to 6000 points. This time, the property market basically no longer has the motivation to attract capital. Nowadays, those who can afford a house already have a house, and those who cannot afford a house can hardly afford a house, and those who can afford a house and those who cannot afford a house can afford stocks.
6. From a strategic point of view, we must acknowledge the trend and believe in luck. The trend is that the bull market has indeed come, and luck is that even if it is a bull market, 70% of people will not earn money. If you enter the bull market and have not become a member of the 70%, it is luck. Therefore, don’t borrow money to trade stocks; only invest money you can afford to lose, that is, even if you lose 50% of the money invested in the stock market, it will not affect your life; if you want to sell your house and trade stocks, I’m not against it, provided that you have at least 2 suites.
7. In terms of mentality, stock trading is a gambling. Before entering the market, make sure that you can afford to lose. If you win, you have to thank the country, if you lose, you have to admit your incompetence. Again, the greatest misfortune in life is my incompetence.
Well, speaking of this, should you enter the stock market? I believe you already have your own answer.
Article reprinted from World Chinese Weekly
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