Don't scare me, I am timid! If the lesson is not learned, Australia will be the next Greece?
"Chinatown"-Official media of Chinese Australians
A politician is a politician with first-rate psychological quality. In the face of rising domestic unemployment in Australia, iron ore cannot be sold, and the economic downturn, housing prices have soared abnormally..., Australian Treasurer Joe Hawke actually said recently: "Although the recent economic turmoil in China and Greece has continued, Australia has not Not affected". I don't know what "influence" is in the eyes of Mr. Minister? Some people believe that if Australia does not learn its lessons and adjust its industrial structure and related policies, perhaps Australia will be the next Greece! can you? Let’s take a look at these two very different articles...
Australian Treasurer Joe Hawke said at a press conference in Canberra that despite the recent economic turmoil in China and Greece, Australia has not been affected.
Joe Hockey pointed out that the Australian economy is now maintaining good momentum. In spite of the recent economic turmoil in China and the sharp drop in iron ore prices, the budgets estimated by the finances related to the Chinese economy will remain unchanged.
Hawke said that the government is very supportive of the decline of the Australian dollar because it will benefit exporters, especially for the economies of South Australia and Victoria.
At the same time, Hawke acknowledged that the turmoil in the two countries has affected consumer confidence. Shadow Treasury Secretary Chris Bowen pointed out that consumer confidence has reached its lowest point in 12 months, and the Australian government is obviously doing nothing in the face of international economic turmoil.
Bowen believes that the government has not fulfilled its role as a reliable economic guide in the past few weeks. He said that although business confidence is gradually improving, many economic sectors have been significantly affected, including mining, wholesale and manufacturing, all of which are declining.
In addition, Hawke said the government faces the challenge of expanding employment opportunities. He believes that Australia should learn some experience from the Greek issue and reform taxes, pensions, and privatized assets. If the necessary reform measures are not taken, it will be the disadvantaged groups at the bottom that will eventually pay the heaviest price.
【Economic recession】Immigration to Australia reduced to a heart disease of the Reserve Bank
As Australia's mining investment boom subsides, the Reserve Bank has been relying on a steady flow of immigrants to boost the economy-a stimulus that most developed countries lack.
However, as wage growth has stagnated and the unemployment rate has risen higher than in the United States, Australia's attractiveness is decreasing. This year's population growth rate in Australia is likely to hit a nine-year low-this is a warning to the already weak economy.
"This is another challenge for policymakers who are struggling in a difficult situation." said James McIntyre, head of economic research at the Macquarie Group and a former Treasury official. "In terms of monetary policy, pressure is gradually accumulating."
The growing population and record low interest rates are the assurance that the Reserve Bank of Australia predicts that the economic growth rate will return to the long-term average of 3%. Without new workers to stimulate consumption and purchase a growing number of new houses, Australia’s economic recovery will be more difficult.
Goldman Sachs Australia Chief Economist Tim Hoohey said: "This shows that the Australian economy may not be able to meet the goals of policymakers in the short term, so there may be further easing policies."
Queuing to find a job
Australia and the United States, the two traditional immigrant countries, are diverging economically. Over the past nine months, Australia’s unemployment rate has surpassed that of the United States. The unemployment rate in Australia is now 9%, while in the US it is 6%. Du Hei asked: "Will you immigrate to a country where you can't find a job?"
The red flags of the reduction of new immigrants have emerged. In the first quarter of this year, the Australian economy grew by 2.3% year-on-year, of which 1.3% came from resource exports. This shows that the remaining economy has only grown by 1%, which shows the importance of consumption.
birth rate decreases
In addition to the decrease in net immigration, the natural population growth rate also hit its lowest point since 2006.
"Families are more willing to have children after a period of steady economic income growth." Du Hei said. As the growth rate of household income fell to its lowest point since the 1990s, "it is natural that the natural birth rate has also fallen."
Fewer than expected workers also put pressure on Australia’s finances, as personal income tax and consumption tax revenues have also been reduced. Australia’s fiscal deficit has exceeded 2% of its gross national product.
Real estate oversupply
The 2% official interest rate has stimulated housing prices in Australia's two largest cities. Sydney and Melbourne are experiencing a real estate construction boom. But Goldman Sachs now believes that due to slow population growth, real estate may face oversupply. Goldman Sachs adjusted its population forecast and believes that by 2017, Australia will have 7.5 more homes, instead of the previous forecast of a shortage of 14.
Article reprinted from Australia Jia, 1688 News Australia
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