"Chinatown"-Official media of Chinese Australians

Some analysis found that Melbourne's house prices will plummet by 9%, while Sydney's house prices will continue to rise and remain high.

A report called "Economic Record" found that Sydney house prices "will rise until the end of 2015, and then remain high, and are not expected to fall sharply." Melbourne house prices will begin to fall almost immediately, in the future A decline of as much as 9.2% in a year, and Sydney house prices will rise by 6%. Over the same period, Brisbane house prices will fall by 8.1% and Perth by 5.2%. In Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra house prices will continue to rise slowly.

Abbas Valadkhani of Swinburne University, Ronald Ratti of Western Sydney University and Greg Costello of Curtin University analyzed monthly housing price data since 1995.

根据每个城市截至2014年12月的数据,他们对2015年5月的房价进行了预测,他们发现使用4种不同统计测试得出的结果十分准确。然后他们把预测的目标日期延长至2016年5月。

"This cannot predict every rise and fall of house prices during the period, but can only predict the general house price trend. If we can predict every step of the house price trend, we would already be millionaires and we don't need to work hard in academia. The actual house price may be a little higher or lower than the trend we predicted."

In the year to April, the average house price in Melbourne rose by 4% to a record high of A$7.6, and then fell slightly by 750,130% to A$1.6. The average house price in Sydney climbed 737,870% over the same period to reach a record high of A$15.5, and then fell slightly by 951,960% to A$0.2.

"If after two or three months, house prices rise and soar, in a sense, our house price model will be invalid. But if house prices change according to our model, we can add additional new ones every month. Information to make our housing price model more accurate."

At this stage, the house price model is limited to house prices. After further adjustments, the scope of application can be expanded to the prices of apartments and specific areas.

When asked why Sydney house prices will rise and then stay high, while Melbourne house prices will fall, Dr Valadkhani said that the model did not give a reason. But this forecast is consistent with the long-standing shortage of land and apartments in Sydney and the oversupply of apartments in Melbourne.

The editor said that we should just look at the price forecast. After all, an expert today and a real estate developer will have very different opinions. How will the Australian media report it?

News compiled from "Sydney Morning Herald"

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