"Chinatown"-Official media of Chinese Australians

On July 7, the A-share market broke out of the huge shock after the plunge. Looking back on the trend of A shares in the past three days, on July 28, it fell by 200%, the highest rose to 7 points, the 24th plunged 1.29%, the 4184.45th plunged again by more than 27%, the intraday shock exceeded 8.45%, and the lowest reached At 28 points, there was a distance of 3 points between the highest and lowest points of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index within three days. The stock market continued to plummet and investors were deeply entangled. According to a survey conducted by Phoenix Stock, over 6% of netizens have full A shares, but at the same time, nearly 3537.36% of netizens believe that A shares will continue to bottom out, and more than 600% of netizens see 3000 points.

Review of A-share trends on July 7

The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both fell over 4% at the opening, and then fluctuated downwards, but the decline was not as fierce as yesterday. There were several decent offensives during the session. At 11 am, the stock index rose close to 1%, but then it started again. Downward, around 14 in the afternoon, led by brokerage stocks, there was another wave of rebound, but the Shanghai stock index did not turn red. In terms of sectors, the banking sector is struggling to protect the market, the pork concept has performed well, and there are more stocks that are red. PetroChina once soared to protect the market, but fell sharply in the afternoon.

Over 3 points in 600 days, what are you afraid of?

XNUMX. The national team's trends:

The China Securities Regulatory Commission said: The withdrawal of the "national team" does not conform to the facts and will choose an opportunity to increase its holdings

On the evening of the 27th, in response to media speculation that the "national team" had withdrawn and would no longer rescue the market, China Securities Regulatory Commission spokesperson Zhang Xiaojun responded on the evening of the 27th that China Securities Finance Corporation did not withdraw and will increase its holdings at the opportunity to continue to play. The function of stabilizing the market.

Zhang Xiaojun said that the report on the withdrawal of the "national team" is completely inconsistent with the facts. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will continue to take stabilizing the market, stabilizing people's hearts, and preventing systemic risks as its work goals, and do its best to do a good job in related work.

In addition, in response to the recent situation in which some large individuals have concentrated on selling stocks, Zhang Xiaojun said that malicious short selling cannot be ruled out. The China Securities Regulatory Commission is organizing forces to verify relevant clues. Once verified, they will be severely punished.

Media: CITIC Futures ranked first in the short list with more than ten thousand hands

After the continuous rise last week, the market itself needed to be adjusted, but such a decline exceeded many industry insiders' expectations. “It’s really unexpected that the index futures limit fell. I thought that stable funds could reduce market volatility, but now the market is difficult to judge rationally. There are too many non-market factors involved.” Some analysts told the Securities Times reporter, “ From a technical point of view, when the index futures fell on Monday, it was accompanied by massive Masukura. The three major index futures also appeared Masukura at the close, indicating that the market selling pressure is still very heavy. On the current spread, the index futures also maintained a higher discount. The market sentiment is still relatively pessimistic.” The data show that the main IF closed at a discount of 170.93 points, the IC main discount was 452.78 points, and the IH discount reached 58.29 points.

It is worth noting that the willingness of major funds to hedge on the futures index has increased. The CICC position report shows that the top 20 long-term futures companies in the index IF increased their long positions by 2796 to 56426, and the top 20 short positions increased their short positions by 3259 to 71221 on Monday. Among them, CITIC Futures positions reduced their long positions by 2718 lots on the same day and increased their short positions by 657 lots, ranking first on the short list with 11600 lots.

XNUMX. Trends of Big Brothers:

Xu Xiang was exposed last Friday to lighten up substantially or as low as 1%, saying that the plunge will recur at any time

After the market closed last Friday, there was a saying in the private equity circle that Xu Xiang significantly reduced his position. According to reports circulating in the private equity circle, Xu Xiang ordered his products to lighten up their positions during the early trading last Friday, judging that the market is still under pressure, and there may be another plunge during the rebound at any time.

Yesterday, another big coffee in the private equity circle also confirmed this statement to reporters. He described Xu Xiang's move to lighten up this time as "fast and fierce, maybe as low as XNUMX%." He also pointed out that Xu Xiang has always been more flexible in position adjustment. "Lightening up should only be temporary, and they should arrange the traditional fall in time. Quotes."

The reporter of "Golden Securities" also learned from the insiders of Zexi that Xu Xiang asked its products to reduce positions in early June. However, the person did not respond positively to whether Xu Xiang made a substantial lightening of positions last Friday and yesterday.

This round of rebounding institutional seats appeared in more than 600 stocks net sold 42 billion

With the strong support of the national team and the gradual recovery of investor confidence, A shares have set off a round of oversold rebound since July 7. Which stocks have institutional investors participated in during the three consecutive weeks of rebound? According to public information on the Shenzhen and Shanghai Stock Exchange, institutional seats appeared on the 8 stocks list, with a total net sales of 619 billion.

XNUMX. Flow of funds:

A substantial net outflow of financing funds in the two cities yesterday

The balance of financing in the two cities dropped sharply yesterday. The Shanghai stock market financing balance was reported at 9193 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 215 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen stock market reported at 5075 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 60 billion yuan.

Financial stocks are hardest hit by net outflow of financing funds. The net outflow of funds from Ping An of China was 11.6 billion yuan, and that of CITIC Securities was 9.23 million yuan.

At the same time, Bright Dairy was favored by financing funds, with a financing purchase of 5.31 million yuan and a net inflow of 3.21 million yuan.

XNUMX. Lack of confidence is the key reason for the sharp decline of Chinese capital or non-A shares

Regarding the reasons for such a sharp drop in the market, based on the communication between the author and some professionals, it is generally believed that the current market's relatively fragile attitude of holding shares may be the biggest incentive. Since investors just experienced a rare stock market crash a month ago, the painful lessons learned before have made investors learn to sell stocks quickly when the market is a little turbulent, because the result of choosing to continue holding stocks and not selling before is not an explosion Warehouse is a deep set, this time the market's learning effect has rapidly magnified the short-term market decline! Not to mention that most of the investors who have recently participated in market transactions are motivated by short-term speculation. Under the background of relatively lucrative short-term profits, running away will inevitably become their rational choice, and this is also the biggest advantage of retail investors-running Go fast.

Another important reason is that the market is currently too concerned about the dynamics of the national team. In fact, the sharp drop in the stock index last Monday was due to market rumors that the national team had begun to consider withdrawing. Although the Securities Regulatory Commission promptly refuted the rumors and made the stock index rebound quickly, the market's sensitivity to this has been fully demonstrated. And this Monday, China's oil failed to defend the market and fell sharply, which also greatly affected the confidence of the market, and to a large extent also exacerbated the decline of the stock index.

From the perspective of economic fundamentals, whether it is from the recent economic data for the first half of the year or the initial value of the Caixin PMI in July last week, it shows that the current economic stabilization is still insufficient, and greater efforts are needed to maintain stability. . From the point of view of the room for loose monetary policy, with the recent strengthening of the pig cycle, the rebound of CPI has made the central bank's interest rate cut space very limited, and the Fed may raise interest rates during the year to bring foreign outflow effects, so that the central bank must retain sufficient RRR cuts Space to hedge against the impact of capital outflows, the loose room for monetary policy in the second half of the year will be significantly lower than in the first half, which will undoubtedly have a certain impact on the stock market.

As for the news that the Hang Seng HOMS system circulated in the market may be closed by securities companies in the near future, due to the previous crash, the clearing of OTC funds has been relatively thorough. Even if some investors open new transactions recently, the total amount is important to the overall market. The impact of will also be very limited, and many market participants believe that this will not be the main reason for Monday's stock index crash.

Shareholders are in infinite entanglement: over 3000% of netizens are full, and over XNUMX% of netizens are short on XNUMX points

Some people describe A-share stockholders as an unbeatable "Xiaoqiang". Faced with the sudden plunge and huge earthquake, investors once again showed a strong side. In a survey on the future trend of Phoenix stocks, nearly 6% of netizens believe that the bull market has ended and A shares will continue to bottom out, but nearly XNUMX% of netizens believe that A shares will reach new highs after the adjustment.

Among netizens who are short on the market outlook, 26% of netizens believe that the Shanghai Index will be adjusted to 3600 points, but the Shanghai Index has fallen below the second point on the 28th. This part of netizens once again underestimated the power of the short position. It is worth noting that over 33% of netizens believe that the Shanghai Index will be adjusted to below 3000 points, the highest proportion, while the proportions of netizens who see 3400, 3200, and 3000 are 14%, 13%, and 12% respectively.

Although the vast majority of netizens are short on the market outlook, more than 41% of netizens still have full positions in A shares, 25% of netizens hold less than 41% of positions, and the remaining positions are relatively small. The editor can only guess that the XNUMX% of netizens with full positions may be stuck and difficult to get out, or they may be preparing for medium- and long-term investment.

Institutions see the market outlook

Guosen Securities: a shock or a healthy digestion of excessive leverage

Event: Yesterday, the market continued its adjustment on Friday, but the decline was large. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 8.48%, from 4070 to 3725; the ChiNext Composite Index fell 6.92%.

The market is conducting another recovery test after the crisis, but it is obviously overdone. What did we mention in the weekly report? "Is our market normal? No. So this week is the best time window for testing." Based on the speculation of the market's self-selling power, we are inclined to prepare for the second stage of the rebound at the 4000-point integer mark. Therefore, the weekly title "will enter the second stage of the rebound" is not wrong, but the adjustment of the end of the first stage of rebound is undoubtedly too big.

With an attitude of 7 feet down, the market tells us how fragile the basis of the rebound since July 8 is and will further lower investors' expectations for the medium and long-term trend. So, has our Guoxin's prediction of the second-stage rebound changed? Not yet, confidence is still there.

First, since the rebound, including before and after the stock market crash, our allocation structure to counter the market has been dominant. The emphasized breeding, aviation, and film and television (proposed after the rebound) provide a larger safety cushion, and the recommendation of the breeding sector is not based on short-term considerations, including if the aviation stock is converted into a consumer stock, its growth will provide the stock price. Medium and long-term support.

Second, it is very important. The weekly report also said that if the government rescues the market at 3800, why not believe that the government will act again? Today's sharp drop indicates that the liquidity alert has not been completely lifted. In addition, the Shanghai Stock Exchange also fell below 3800 to end at 3725. Here is a supplement to everyone. Taking the government's positioning of the SSE 3800 to rescue the market, that is, last Wednesday and Thursday, the decline of the small and medium-sized enterprises is still within the acceptable range, but it is approaching the rescue point.

Our view on the short-term rebound in the market remains optimistic. But it is also approaching the key point, that is, is the government abandoning us at this time? In principle, no. Considering that government funds, an exogenous variable, will continue to provide sufficient liquidity in the right place, we are happy to see that the rebound is not over, and the second phase is brewing.

To understand the current market adjustment from the government's perspective, I think it is reasonable and even beneficial. First, the government's cost of bailing out the market is not low, so the market is under pressure to continue to adjust; second, the market's violent turbulence can lower the rebound expectation, and high-level chips can change hands to reduce the entire market's chip cost.

The high hold-up during the previous stock market crash is the core variable to measure the height of the rebound, and it is also an important variable that determines the future mid-to-long-term trend. The sharp market volatility during the rebound, including adjustment, may be a healthier way to digest the ups and downs of the market under excessive leverage in the previous period.

Specific investment varieties: 1) The first is to grasp the high-prosperity industries such as breeding and aviation; 2) The core varieties in the rebound of military industry and film and television; 3) Other varieties are not suitable to go against the wind, and we must pay attention to taking advantage of the trend .

Main risks: Deviations in the judgment of the government's intention to maintain stability, such as the emergence of a more peaceful rescue point.

Huatai Securities: Hungry wolves and evil wolves game the market facing short-term adjustment

Strategic point of view: the game between hungry wolf and evil wolf-the market is facing short-term adjustments. Overall view: the short-term fundamentals are falling beyond expectations and risk appetite declines. The economy can hardly stabilize in the second half of the year. Power generation growth in the first half of the year, July Caixin PMI, July Real estate sales are declaring economic instability and policies need to continue to be loose. Leveraged funds dominated the net inflow of funds. Last week, the net inflow of A-share funds was 7 billion yuan, but after deducting the financing growth of the two financial institutions, only 7 billion yuan.

In the market rebound, the financing of the two financial institutions has grown too fast, which means that supervision is bad in the short term. The general trend is judged-the market will have adjustment pressure in the short-term, the "quasi-stock" game pattern has not changed, and the medium-term view remains unchanged. The market will "surprise step by step". The theme value is highlighted under the structured market. Last week, the overall average increase of 138 themes reached 7%, and the excess returns were significant. We recommend focusing on the themes of state-owned enterprises (including but not limited to state-owned enterprise reform) and the Winter Olympics (short-term).

6. The mentality is king, and the mentality is peaceful to deal with the short-term market adjustment: A shares ushered in 7 consecutive positives last week, but a correction occurred last Friday, which caused worries. The market rebound is within our expectations. On July 13, we proposed "End of Soul, Re-growth", and after the announcement of monetary and financial data on July 7 and June, we proposed "Financial improvement to support continued rebound." Weekly report on July 14 We propose "Step by step startling OR step by step surprise? "Continue to see more.

The market continued to rebound and individual stocks split amidst doubts. This week we believe that after the market has experienced an index increase of more than 5% in the short term (many stocks have increased far more than the index increase), the China Securities Regulatory Commission continues to increase penalties for illegal activities, and the rapid growth of the two financial institutions may be short-term negative for the market. . This week we believe that the market will face adjustment in the short term and risk appetite will decline. Investment choices are more structured or even individual stocks.

We believe that after experiencing such turbulence, we can deal with such short-term adjustments more peacefully. There is no change in the medium-term view, and a mid-term rebound is expected. The market is gradually shifting from startling to surprise.

7. The game between hungry wolves and evil wolves: I remember that on July 7, there was an analogy when the market was full of grief and there was no shortage of off-market funds, but liquidity was completely lost on the market. The whole market is like a valley. Hungry wolves (off-market funds) watch the inner valley from the peak. In the basin of the valley was a flock of dying sheep. In the early stage, the "hungry wolves" entered the valley and turned into "bad wolves" (which already had bargain-hunting profits), and the excess income was very high. While market liquidity is gradually recovering, there are still "hungry wolves" that continue to transform into "bad wolves." When the market rebound gradually rises to a certain height, in such a "quasi-stock" game market, the game between "hungry wolves" and "bad wolves" will become increasingly fierce. In the short term, "hungry wolves" may enter the valley and may face the market. The risk of "bad wolf" profit-taking.

New Media Operations Editor Lu Jinghan

The article is reproduced from "Phoenix Finance Official WeChat (ID: finance_ifeng)"

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