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Nine headlines news: The stock market adjustment is affecting the property market. As assets shrink, the property market is in abundance: some buyers who were very proud a few days ago were suddenly stretched out and had to postpone buying houses in the market; some homeowners had to withdraw money from their houses. , In order to prevent "exploitation"; other home buyers, due to financing leverage and serious losses, can only give up the purchase deposit; and some investors who are trying to make a profit in the stock market with the house money have to face big housing The tragedy of becoming a small house.

So what is the dangerous relationship between the property market and the stock market? Let's understand it through the following example.

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In the short term: the seesaw effect of the stock market and the property market

Statistics from Huachuang Securities show that from June 6 to July 29, the average daily transaction area of ​​commercial housing in 7 large and medium-sized cities was 3 square meters, up 30% from the previous month and 87.0% year-on-year. From the perspective of different regions, transactions in first-tier cities rose by 25.7% month-on-month, those in second-tier cities rose by 98.2% month-on-month, and those in third-tier cities rose by 46.4%.

As the stock market enters the correction phase, China's real estate transaction volume has soared, and the country's real estate transaction has risen sharply. The first, second and third-tier cities all hit new highs during the year. Huachuang Securities believes that, in addition to the positive stimulus provided by the previous interest rate cuts and RRR cuts, the sharp increase in real estate trading volume from the previous month was obviously affected by the signs of the stock market peaking. The withdrawal of large amounts of funds from the stock market may also have a certain stimulus effect on the property market. The effect of the “seesaw” of funds in the stock and property markets is memorable.

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In the long run: the phenomenon of "synchronous resonance" exists between the stock market and the property market

However, the relationship between the stock market and the property market is not just a "seesaw". Many cases at home and abroad have shown that from the perspective of market operation, the stock market and the property market are basically in the same direction. In 2015, there was a phenomenon of "synchronous resonance" between the stock market and the property market: Shenzhen's property market, which saw soaring housing prices in the first half of the year, began to slow down in July; some luxury homes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen that rely on high-net-worth individuals have also begun to become difficult to sell.

A related report from the China Securities Journal pointed out that monetary policy and liquidity are the same core factors driving changes in the stock market and the property market. From the perspective of market operation rhythm, stock prices change first, and housing prices change later. Facing the same monetary easing environment, the stock market is more sensitive and reacts faster than the property market. For example, in this wave of bull market, stock prices bottomed out in July 2014, while housing prices did not bottom out until April this year.

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"Small episode" brought to the property market by the leveraged bull market

But in this round of the stock market, short-term surges and plunges, and strong leverage characteristics, have also given some episodes in the relationship between the stock market and the property market. Since June 6th, the stock market has plummeted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell directly from a high of 15 points to below 5178 points, a drop of more than 3500%. The total market value of the two cities has evaporated by more than 30 trillion yuan. After the plunge, many institutional and individual investors have exploded their positions. The pressure of liquidation of the financing market has led to a lot of over-the-counter funds (the original house purchase funds) may be concentrated into the stock market to provide additional financing guarantees.

For example, at the beginning of July, some special listings gradually appeared on the market: "Owners' stock market is losing money and selling stocks." Real estate agents also revealed that almost every salesperson has recently encountered a situation where buyers have changed their minds. Buyers who are still looking at the house have suspended their house purchase plans. Most of the customers who have entered the transaction link choose to give up the deposit, and a small part has already paid Customers with down payment can only find ways to raise funds or switch from a one-time payment to a loan...

But in general, the mutual influence of the stock market and the property market still cannot escape the following stages: (1) the stock market is strong, which is negative for the property market; (2) the property market rebounds and the stock market continues to rise; (3) the stock market peaks, which is good for the property market. Industry insiders believe that after the stock market peaks, the transfer of funds to the property market will help increase housing prices, and the property market will continue to prosper for some time.

However, experts reminded that the property market is not a “refuge” for the stock market. Blindly speculating in real estate is as risky as blindly speculating in stocks. In the long run, the property market may follow the stock market and enter the adjustment stage again. Investors and real estate speculators still need to make early plans.

Article reprinted from nine headlines

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