"Chinatown"-Official media of Chinese Australians

Back to June 30, 6 days ago, the Shanghai Composite Index was still hovering above 8 points. The news on TV and newspapers was flooded with "economic transformation", "slow bulls", etc. All kinds of bullish stock market trends The content of the speech. However, in Tiger Sniff’s article on this day’s highlights, an article with "disharmonious views" appeared-"Economist Xu Xiaonian: "Internet +" has errors, and the stock market craziness does not know how to end":

At the 2015 class committee meeting of the China Europe Business School, the famous economist Xu Xiaonian delivered a speech, talking about the economic downturn, the stock market frenzy and Internet thinking and "Internet +". Xu Xiaonian made a ruthless criticism of the frenzy of the stock market at that time. He pointed out: "There is currently no theory that can explain the madness of this stock market, except for Keynes's animal spirit. I really don't know how this stock market frenzy will end."

Thirty days later, the largest suspension in the history of China's A-shares led to a slump in global markets, including European and American stock markets. Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened sharply lower. The Shanghai Index fell below 30 points in intraday trading and did not turn red throughout the day. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index maintained a decline of 3600% and 6% respectively. There are a total of about 5.7 stocks in the two cities, more than 2800 stocks have a lower limit, and nearly 1600 stocks are suspended.

Now let’s take a look at Xu Xiaonian’s original point of view. There may be different inspirations:

1) The economic downturn was the result of overdrafts in previous years.

2) In the past, we pursued the development of GDP with money printing and borrowing. Local debt risk, the current policy is actually to exchange long-term debt for short-term debt, delaying the time for debt repayment.

3) The central bank endorses this and may buy local debt. The central government should no longer trust the economy, otherwise it will postpone the economic transformation and must create new dividends through reforms.

4) In favor of the new normal formulation: no longer target GDP; no longer use macroeconomic policies to maintain GDP; create new dividends through reforms. The problem is: the slogan; but the old thinking is back: the finances are beginning to spend money again (falling on the central finance); and the currency is expanding again (cutting interest rates and RRR).

5) Finance drives private investment. But not: the reason is that there is nowhere to invest. All additional currency issuance went to the stock market. The reason is the excess economy. Not bad money, but bad investment opportunities that can make money.

6) Stock market-wool grows on pigs. The money went to the stock market instead of the entity.

7) Going to excess capacity-dare to invest-manage well-increase revenue

8) Exporting excess capacity externally-wishful thinking.


9) The stock market is transforming, the one belt road and so on. Absurd and bizarre! This is to walk the night while whistling to give yourself courage. I don't want to write an article anymore. There is currently no theory that can explain the current stock market craziness. Except for the animal spirit of Keynes.

10) I would like to ask: Does the money raised in the stock market enter the real economy? Looking around, nothing is more profitable than the stock market. Does stock market financing reduce corporate financing costs? Fundamental principles of corporate finance: The cost of equity funds is higher than the cost of debt funds because of higher operating risks. This is a joke. Everyone treats their own funds as zero-cost funds. The stock market makes no money. Because those who take the money have never thought of giving investors a high return. Man-made distortions cause enterprises to invest in disorder and cause excess capacity.

11) The end will be miserable. This stock market frenzy. I really don't know how to end it.

12) The two are currently the same: First, everyone knows about bubbles. The difference lies in when to break. Second, everyone believes that when broken, they run faster than others.

13) (The current situation in the stock market) I don't know who made the idea. Everyone can kill it. The upper and lower leaders harmed the people of Lebanon.

14) Our nation lacks independent thinking ability. Cause to follow suit.

15) Kant: Definition of Enlightenment: Enlightenment is the courage to use one's own reason.

Article reprinted from Tiger Sniffing Network

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