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The recent sudden changes in the A-share market and the continuous huge adjustments have given new and old investors a sap. This is the first time the A-share market has experienced a sustained decline under high leverage. Facing the new situation, what kind of operational thinking should be adopted in the second half of the year? The reporter combed through the performance of the U.S. and Japan stock markets after the plunge under high leverage, and the coping strategies of investment masters who performed immortal legends in the ever-changing stock market, hoping to provide investors with some reference.

Buffett: The stock price will eventually reflect the company's intrinsic value

"Stock God" Buffett 99% of his wealth comes from the value of the shares of Berkshire, the listed company he controls. Therefore, once the stock market plummets, Buffett's Berkshire shares are likely to not be spared. So, how did Buffett react when the US stock market crashed in 1987?

According to foreign media reports, at the time of the crash, Buffett may be the only person in the United States who does not always pay attention to the crashing stock market. There is no computer at all in Buffett's office, and no stock market quotation machine. He doesn't watch the stock market at all. For a whole day, he stayed quietly in the office as usual, making phone calls, reading newspapers, and reading annual reports of listed companies. Two days later, a reporter asked Buffett: What does this stock market crash mean? Buffett’s answer is only one sentence: Maybe it means that the stock market has risen too high in the past.

Buffett did not panic around asking for news, nor did he sell stocks in a panic. Faced with a sharp drop, facing a sharp drop in his wealth, facing a sharp drop in his heavy holdings, he was very calm. The reason is simple: I firmly believe that these listed companies have long-term sustainable competitive advantages, have good development prospects, and have high investment value. I firmly believe that stock market disasters, like natural disasters, are only temporary and will eventually pass and return to normal. The stock price of the holding company will eventually reflect its intrinsic value.

Peter Lynch: The plunge is a good opportunity to make big money

When the U.S. stock market crashed in 1987, many people went from millionaires to extreme poverty, mentally collapsed and even committed suicide. At that time, Peter Lynch, a superstar in the US securities industry, managed a $100 billion Magellan fund. In one day, the fund's net asset value lost 18%, and the loss was as high as $20 billion. Lynch, like all open-end fund managers, has only one choice: sell stocks. In order to cope with the unusually large redemption, Lynch had to sell all the shares.

After more than a year, Peter Lynch recalled still feeling scared, “At that moment, I really couldn’t be sure whether it was the end of the world, or we were about to fall into a severe economic depression, or something. It hasn't gotten so bad, just Wall Street is about to end?"

After that, Peter Lynch continued to experience many stock market crashes, but still achieved very successful performance. It made three suggestions: First, don't sell all the stocks at a low price because of panic. If you sell stocks desperately during a stock market crash, your selling price will often be very low. The October 1987 market was frightening, but there was no need to sell the stock on this day or the next. In November that year, the stock market began to rise steadily. By June 10, the market had rebounded by more than 11 points, that is to say, the increase exceeded 1988%. Second, we must have firm courage to hold good company stocks. Third, we must dare to buy good company stocks at low prices. A plummet is the best opportunity to make big money: huge wealth is often made only in this kind of stock market crash.

索罗斯:千万不能孤注一掷 

Soros, the founder of the Quantum Fund, said that wanting to live is instinct and being able to live is ability. "There is no more terrible thing in my life than death. As long as I don't die, there is a way." In the 1987 stock market crash, Soros' Quantum Fund lost 6.5 million to 8 million U.S. dollars in the stock market crash, a decline even more than Market. Instead of sitting back and waiting for death, he pleaded to lose all his investment portfolio at a low price, and then used the remaining funds plus financing to establish a dollar position. By the end of the year, the growth rate of the Quantum Fund had returned to 14%, completing a major reversal.

Soros said, “It’s not shameful to make mistakes. It’s shameful that mistakes are already obvious and haven’t been corrected. There is no blame for taking risks. But at the same time remember that you must not be all-or-nothing.”

菲利普·费雪:不要过快买入陌生的股票  

The timing of investment is very difficult. When investors are uncertain about the timing, they choose to hedge. It is roughly estimated that 65%~68% of the funds of American investment guru Philip Fisher will be invested in the 4 stocks he really fancy, the remaining about 20%~25% will be cash or cash equivalents, and the rest will be Put it on the promising 5 tickets. Fisher will spend a lot of time researching and is not eager to buy. "In a continuously falling market environment, don't buy unfamiliar stocks too quickly."

杰西·利弗莫尔:出现浮亏,说明正在犯错  

Jesse Livermore, a legend in the history of American stocks, once pointed out that investors who have made floating losses after buying or selling indicate that they are making mistakes. Under normal circumstances, if the floating losses do not improve within three days, they will immediately throw them away. . Never amortize losses, we must keep this principle firmly in mind. After the price enters a clear trend, it will continue to move automatically along a specific route that runs through the entire trend. When you see a red flag, don't argue with it, avoid it! A few days later, if everything looks good, come back again. In this way, it will save a lot of trouble and save a lot of money.

吉姆·罗杰斯:买其所值,卖其疯狂 

Wall Street investment guru Jim Rogers once pointed out that one should be patient and wait for a good time, make money and take a profit, and then wait for the next opportunity. Only in this way can we defeat others. Market trends often show long-term sluggishness. In order to avoid making funds fall into a stagnant market, investors should wait for the emergence of catalytic factors that can change market trends. Buy its value, sell it crazy.

杰里米·格兰桑:投资者要耐心等待好牌  

Jeremy Gransson, the world's best investment strategist, suggests: First, believe in history. History will repeat itself, and it will be dangerous if you forget this one. All bubbles will burst, and all investment craziness will disappear. The task of investors is to survive market volatility.

The second is not to be a borrower, nor a lender. If investors borrow money to invest, it will interfere with investment capacity. Investment portfolios that do not use leverage will not be liquidated, while investments that use leverage will face this risk. Leverage will impair the patience of investors themselves. Although it temporarily increases investor returns, it will eventually be destroyed suddenly.

The third is not to put all assets on one boat. Allocation of investment in several different areas, and as many as possible, this can increase the resilience of the portfolio and enhance the ability to withstand shocks. Obviously, when investment targets are numerous and different, investors are more likely to survive the critical period when their main assets fall.

The fourth is to have patience and focus on the long-term. Investors must wait patiently for a good card. If the waiting time is long enough, the market price may become very cheap. This is the margin of safety for investors to invest.

The fifth is to stay away from the crowd and focus only on value. The best way to resist crowd agitation is to pay attention to the intrinsic value of individual stocks calculated by yourself, or to find a reliable source of value measurement (check their calculation results from time to time). Then worship these values ​​like a hero and try to ignore everything. Remember, those great opportunities for investors to avoid grief and make money are very obvious from the numbers: compared to the long-term average US stock market price-earnings ratio of 15 times, the price-earnings ratio at the peak of the market in 1929 was 21 times. The Internet in 2000 At the peak of the bubble, the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 was 35 times! In contrast, at the stock market low in 1982, the P/E ratio was 8 times. This is not complicated.

Sixth, we must be true to ourselves. As an individual investor, you must understand your strengths and weaknesses. If you can wait patiently and ignore the temptation of the group, you are likely to win. Investors must accurately know their tolerance threshold. If investors cannot resist the temptation, they will never manage their money well.

Bailout case·The US government injects capital into banks to help the market regain confidence

以美国的经验作参考,进入20世纪以来,美股历史中10天跌幅超过20%的情况总共出现过7次,分别发生在1914年、1929年、1931年、1932年、1940年、1987年和2008年。综合来看,1987年那一次股灾最值得反思。1987年股灾爆发前,美股也经历了巨大涨幅,道指从1987年初的1900点上涨到9月的2700多点,涨幅达42%。然而在1987年10月19日当天,道琼斯指数重挫了508.32点,暴跌22.6%。在这个可以自由加杠杆的成熟市场上,爆发了一次罕见的崩盘事件。

The next day, the U.S. government rescued the market: The Federal Reserve issued a statement saying that it immediately injected funds into the banking system. Subsequently, the federal funds rate was reduced by 0.75%. At the same time, the Federal Reserve purchased government bonds in the market to protect the stock market. The following day, the Dow Jones Index rebounded in retaliation. The S&P 500 surged 9.1%. The bottom of the market adjustment was proved. After the shock bottomed out for one and a half months, it resumed its upward trend. After several quarters of consolidation, August 1 has exceeded the previous high.

In addition, the U.S. government has also provided funds to many large companies to repurchase stocks and stabilize the dollar exchange rate together with major countries. It is hoped that through coordination of exchange rate policies, a large outflow of hot money will be avoided. This helped the market regain confidence, so that the stock market crash did not evolve into a vicious circle of short selling.

Before the stock market crash, the financing funds that continued to boost the index rose sharply after October 1987. Data shows that the plunge in the index has increased the margin requirements of commercial banks. After this wave of huge adjustments, market risk appetite has declined, investors have become more cautious in their layout, financing balances have gradually remained stable, and the stock market trend has been relatively stable.

Bailout case: Bank of Japan's purchase of stocks held by banks promotes a 40% rebound in the index half a year

Since 1970, the Japanese stock market has fallen by more than 10% in 20 trading days only once. That is, on September 2008, 9, Lehman Brothers Holdings declared bankruptcy, triggering a global financial tsunami. After that, the Nikkei 15 Index ended. After a slight increase in 225 trading days, it ushered in an 4-day losing streak.

2008年9月26日,日经225指数以下跌1.11%收盘。此后该指数从9月26日收盘的11893.16点一路俯冲。到10月10日,该指数在短短11个交易日内暴跌超3800点,跌幅达31%。10月16日,日经225指数更是单日暴跌1089.02点,跌幅达11.41%。此后,日本股市进行了5个月的触底调整。直到2009年2月,日本央行宣布再度入市购买部分商业银行持有的股票,以改善这些金融机构因股价下跌、资产缩水而惜贷的状况,日经指数才出现明显反转态势。接下来的半年时间,日经225指数反弹40%左右。

统计数据显示,2009年2月23日到2010年4月30日,日本央行共购入3878亿日元的股票。

In 2009, due to the effectiveness of the economic stimulus policies of major economies, the global economic recovery and the gradual stabilization of the international financial system, some investors predict that the stock market will continue to strengthen steadily in the future. The Japanese stock market also ended with a rise. The reporter learned that although the Japanese stock market's Nikkei 225 index closed up only 19% that year, which was far less than the growth of emerging markets such as China, it benefited from the good economic demand of China and the United States. Electronics and automobile technology export stocks became the main leading sectors. .

The article is reproduced from the Daily Economic News (ID: nbdnews)

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