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National leaders rarely comment directly on the stock market, especially the stock markets of other countries. But Putin recently broke this convention.
On July 7, local time in Ufa, Russia, Putin, who was attending the 10th meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization", discussed the Chinese stock market at a press conference.
According to reports, Putin said that the stock market in mainland China has recently fallen, "but according to the latest data, there has been a slight rebound." "this is normal". "I think that China used to be and will continue to be the locomotive of the world economy." In his speech, Putin also expressed appreciation for the Chinese leadership's calm response to stock market fluctuations.
Why does Putin support the Chinese stock market? Of course, this is an expression of goodwill, standing on the platform for "good buddies". Hello, buddy, everyone is hello.
This year is the year of interest rate hikes for the US dollar. The Fed just stated that it will definitely raise interest rates during the year.
The global financial turmoil that began in 2008 was initiated by the United States and was the first to end in the United States. I have mentioned many times in this column that the United States completed a new industrial revolution after 2008. This industrial revolution includes the new energy revolution represented by shale oil and shale gas, and the mobile Internet is the representative. The revolution in information technology, the manufacturing revolution represented by 3D printing.
The United States, which was the first to achieve recovery, also took the lead in shrinking the central bank's balance sheet and returning the money released that year into the "Pandora's box." Hot money began to return to the United States following factors such as investment opportunities and interest rates. As a result, widespread deflation occurred in other parts of the world.
Russian President breaks convention and supports Chinese stock market
On the one hand, the United States has terminated quantitative easing and the U.S. dollar is about to raise interest rates, so commodity prices are naturally weak; on the other hand, the energy revolution that originated in the United States has brought down oil and gas prices; The period of low growth also caused the actual demand for bulk commodities to fall.
The combination of these two factors is a heavy blow to resource-rich countries such as Russia, Australia, and Brazil.
Putin's feelings are even deeper. Russia has suffered economic sanctions because of the Ukraine problem with the West. The foreign exchange and stock markets have plummeted at the beginning of the year. The stable development of China's economy is very important to Russia. China is not only an important market for Russian oil, natural gas, timber, etc., it is also becoming Russia's most important investor.
At this "Ufa Summit", Putin also issued invitations to Chinese companies to develop Siberia and the Far East. To this end, Russia is preparing to establish development zones and free ports that provide tax incentives.
In fact, in recent days, not only Putin has been supporting the Chinese stock market, but many large Western investment institutions have expressed their views, hoping to see the stability of the Chinese stock market and the improvement of the Chinese economy. Such as UBS, HSBC, Goldman Sachs.
In today's international society, win-win cooperation is the mainstream. As the world's second largest economy, China has always played the role of the engine of growth. Whether it is the United States, Japan, or Europe, they all need China to a considerable extent. If there is a major problem with the Chinese economy, they will immediately feel like their lips and teeth are cold.
If the Chinese stock market detonates systemic risks, it will inevitably lead to a decline in Chinese demand, a decline in foreign investment, and the participation of the RMB in a competitive devaluation, which will deal a heavy blow to the global economy. Therefore, no major country would be willing to see problems in China in such a special year.
Why is the United States eager to disentangle its relationship with the collapse of the Chinese stock market?
The Ministry of Public Security of China dispatched two generals to investigate malicious short-selling of China's stock market. It was precisely at this time that some people in the United States hurriedly declared that "I did not do this." The question is, when did China say that it was the United States that maliciously shorted the Chinese stock market? Haven't said it before, who has said such a thing?
The Fed just stated that it will definitely raise interest rates during the year
It seems that there is no silver in this place. You are not short, do you need a statement? It’s okay for you, do you need to be clear? Moreover, not only private declarations, but also official declarations.
The international financial giant Rogers suddenly changed his words recently and said, "Standing with the Chinese national team", emphasizing that he did not sell any mainland stocks, and "and started buying Chinese stocks from the 8th." He also predicted that China's stock market will "reach a certain bottom, and then it will gradually rise."
International investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, which were originally bearish on the mainland stock market, also sang more of the Chinese stock market. Robert Donner, the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Asian Affairs of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, also said, “Foreign investors play a very small role in the Chinese stock market. From this perspective, the people who sell Chinese stocks are in China.”
Chinese officials have never said that foreign capital is shorting the Chinese stock market. Of course, the folks still have this view.
It is believed that the big dive in China's stock market was the result of trouble caused by "overseas financial anti-China forces." Some experts believe that this powerful short-selling force has sufficient funds, rich experience, and adequate preparation. It is very familiar with the quantitative analysis of financing leverage of public and private placements, and uses the superimposed effect of investor liquidation at different stages to advance and expand the results. . Especially from the short-selling method of using a series of financial derivative instruments such as CSI 500 stock index futures and ETF, the short-selling force is by no means an ordinary straggler, but a professional force of fighting pharaohs.
Does this professional force for shorting the Chinese stock market come from overseas or domestic? There are two ways of saying that the domestic one is from abroad, and the foreign one is from domestic. It should be said that the possibility of coming from China is extremely small.
Everyone knows that domestic stragglers do not have such a high level of professionalism, and there is only the national team with such a high level in China, and it is impossible for the national team to do so. There is another possibility, that is, individuals with extremely large amounts of capital. This is not only impossible. Even if it exists, it does not need the Ministry of Public Security to investigate. It has long been discovered.
The short selling force is most likely to come from abroad. U.S. media reported on the 10th that Chanos, the head of the New York hedge fund Knicks United Fund, and other short sellers of China, are becoming the focus of the market, not only because of their potential profits, but also because of them. It has become the target of the Chinese government.
Both international capital predators and senior US officials said that "I did not do it." Some senior domestic professionals also echoed this view. "Foreign capital has no energy and no opportunity to short China."
This is because the Chinese mainland stock market is a relatively closed market, and overseas funds account for about 2% of the entire market. "I think this proportion is negligible... Now the RMB is not fully internationalized, and foreign funds are not possible. Enter China on a large scale to buy stocks.” There are also senior domestic experts who say that domestic and overseas funds are profit-seeking, “but this is a conspiracy, not a conspiracy.” The reason why there is such an argument that foreign forces are short selling in the market. , Just because it can cater to some people's curiosity about "story, plot".
It seems that not only foreign countries are distinguishing themselves from the collapse of the Chinese stock market, but some foreign experts are also echoing such foreign voices. This is very intriguing. If the Chinese stock market plummeted this time, neither domestic nor foreigners did it. It was done by aliens, or there was no short selling at all, but the market’s self-regulation. However, if this is the case, if the securities regulatory agency did not notice the slightest change, why did the Ministry of Public Security also ran out? This doesn't make sense.
The securities regulatory agency has joined forces with the public system and made a public statement to investigate malicious short-selling of the Chinese stock market. Obviously, there is a phenomenon of short-selling the stock market. Even if domestic capital is short-selling, it is estimated that there is no need for the Ministry of Public Security to act in concert with the national public security system.
It is now clear whether the professional force for shorting the Chinese stock market comes from overseas or domestic
Judging from the opinions of all parties, no matter whether it is domestic capital or foreign capital, it is impossible to short the Chinese stock market. So is there a third possibility, that is, secretly colluding between foreign forces and domestic forces. Judging from the huge actions of the Ministry of Public Security, this is more likely. If there really is an industry shorting the Chinese stock market this time, it must have been carefully planned and accurately operated. The funds are also operated through secret channels. On the surface, no obvious evidence will be left, so it is extremely difficult to solve the case.
This requires the Ministry of Public Security to investigate the collective actions of the national public security system. On the surface, foreign capital cannot enter China in large quantities through normal channels, but for international capital predators, there is no lack of channels for large amounts of capital to enter a country. Collusion between the inside and the outside, the inside and the outside should be combined, decentralized, operating through secret channels that most people don't know, should be the basic method for shorting the Chinese stock market this time. I am worried that some domestic institutions and some senior domestic experts are secretly working for foreign capital. (Source: Phoenix Network)
How to watch the international community comment on the Chinese stock market
China’s stock market for a month can indeed be described as turbulent waves. The stock index has fallen by almost 30%. The government has begun to clear the market through various channels, and the people have launched a so-called "stock market protection war." The stock index began to rebound. People thought that was a bottoming. The central government made a high-profile proposal through the media to ensure the stability of the stock index.
w Calmly judging from the evaluation of the tsunami-like shocks of the Chinese stock market from all walks of life, there are obvious differences in evaluations at home and abroad. Part of the domestic media is full of exaggeration, and folk narratives are everywhere, and people in China have already heard about it.
At the same time, we have seen that the international community has also attached great importance to this change in China's stock market. The US government spokesperson made a special statement on the Chinese stock market. The World Bank held a special press conference on China's stock market. Leaders of many countries have expressed their opinions on the phenomenon of China's stock market. The following are some of the comments made by the international community.
Generally speaking, the international community believes that although there is no indication that the Chinese stock market will have a huge negative impact on the global economy and global finance as the US did in 2008, it is already foreseeable that if this development continues, it will definitely have a significant impact on China’s economic development. Impact, because of China’s current economic status in the international community, of course, it will indirectly affect the economic status of the international community.
The short-term sharp decline in the Chinese stock market this time is related to the rapid increase in the stock index in the early stage of the Chinese stock market, and this time may be to reduce the stock market bubble.
The short-term sharp decline in the Chinese stock market is related to the rapid increase in the stock index in the previous stage of the Chinese stock market.
The catastrophic changes in the Chinese stock market is not the first, and it will not be the last. This is what the Chinese government and people need to recognize.
The Chinese government has come forward to rescue the market, and it is necessary to prevent the stock market from undergoing a vicious collapse. Many unconventional measures reflect the helplessness of the Chinese regulators.
The abnormal actions of Chinese stock investors may reflect the immature characteristics of the Chinese stock market.
The hot speculation of the Chinese stock market is related to the lack of stable laws in China's economy, and it is also related to the low degree of marketization of listed companies in China, and it is a signal that the Chinese stock market needs healthy development.
Changes in the Chinese stock market will affect the changes in the international price of China's renminbi, the international community's confidence in China's development, and will directly affect the changes in the Chinese consumer market. For countries that trade closely with China, it is necessary to observe carefully and take preventive measures to prevent excessively affecting their own economic development.
China's stock market has received much attention in many countries far more than the Greek financial crisis. This is because China, as one of the world's largest economies, has an influence that cannot be ignored.
The international community’s attention to the changes in China’s stock market has increased significantly, which is related to China’s status in the international community and to the increasing degree of China’s economic internationalization. Since China’s reform and opening up, its international status has continued to improve because of the continuous development of China’s economy. In the past two decades, China has become an engine driving international economic development through its own economic development and the expansion of international cooperation. This also makes China’s problems no longer an isolated domestic one. The problem has become a problem for the international community.
All walks of life abroad, especially professional financial institutions and politicians in the international community, have paid so much attention to the Chinese stock market, which fully shows that our society has become a village of the international society, and our social changes have already affected the world. The impact is no longer the butterfly effect, but a direct impetus. Therefore, to take the road of internationalization and increase the future of international openness, we need to be more familiar with the international market environment and take into account the need for Chinese policies to be in line with international standards. China must have its own characteristics and cannot become an international community. The wonderful work of China, because only by integrating into the international community can China’s development be more vigorous and can better reflect its role in the international community.
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