I returned from the United States and started my current factory in Shajing, Shenzhen, mainly engaged in the processing and manufacturing of electronic circuits. The factory, which has devoted 6 years of hard work, declared bankruptcy today! I did not run away. I know that apart from the objective factors of the general environment, I also have responsibilities.
The cost of the factory has risen year by year, and the profit has fallen into a negative number! The annual rent for the factory building in 2011 was 15, and it has now risen to nearly 50!In the past, most of the electronics factories were girls, but now there are fewer and fewer boys. It's hard to recruit boys, and they can't make them if they have orders. Alas, two years ago, my friends advised me to go to real estate speculation and not to invest money in the factory. I didn't listen at the time and only bought a house in Nanshan.
Up to now, I have to admit defeat. After all, I have to pay all the wages owed to suppliers and workers, which is a full responsibility of more than 300 million. Selling the equipment is in vain! If you sell the house in Shenzhen, you can not only pay back the money, but also have more than 150 million left.
Twenty years ago, being a boss was an honor of arduous work and great effort. Now, being a manufacturing boss has become a very uneconomical life choice.
The current factory owner wears an exploiting hat. Not only did he fail to make money, he even lost money when he was exhausted!
If I can choose again now, I will definitely choose to be a freelancer! You can help others to do product promotion, or play foreign exchange stocks, or just be a self-media person, all of which are good choices!
Occupied factory owner
Around me, most of them are as different as my age.A few days ago, a friend just finished his business for 5 years, without salary, day and night, and losses of hundreds of thousands every year. This is the so-called boss!
A senior invested tens of millions in building materials in 2013, and now he is half-dead. There is no way forward and no way back. Just stay there!
A friend has been working in a factory for ten years. Last year, he put the house on a loan. Now it is estimated that the loan is almost spent, and there is no way forward and no way back. Many of my peers around me are gradually in an awkward and helpless situation. On the one hand, there is insufficient learning ability. The speed of improvement in these years is not as fast as the speed of business model iteration; on the other hand, the market is no longer in the previous state of expansion, but Started to stabilize, and some areas began to shrink!
Regardless of the people you know around you or the large companies that you can learn about in public information, the debt ratio is increasing sharply! This is a worrying and anxious thing!
The dry season of the grassland is here, only the strongest antelope can survive, and only the cheetah with a smart head and agile body can survive! This applies to the current economic field~
Open a factory cost account
Due to the high operating costs, the survival of the current enterprise itself is very stressful!I have been in business by myself for more than ten years. I remember that at the very beginning, tens of thousands of dollars can be used to start a business.EmployeeThe capital level and tax burden are relatively low, and the entire market is in a state of expansion. In this case, the survival probability of small businesses is very high. Even if only one million businesses are made every year, they can live well!
Today this situation is very different!
If you start a company, rent a storefront or a small office space, and add three or five people, the company’s basic operating expenses will cost three to four hundred thousand yuan per year. If you need to advance funds or reduce inventory, you don’t know how much the basic cost is. Up!
A ready-made example is to be a Tmall store. A Tmall store requires two customer service staff, one artist, and one operator. The office space is dozens of square meters, and the amount of money to be paid is more than XNUMX. This is the most basic and simple structure.So if you open a Tmall, you won’t be able to do it if you don’t plan to raise hundreds of thousands, and your chances of making a profit are very low! Survive ten will not save one!
If you have 80 funds and only one shareholder, what about the cost?
Calculated on the basis of 5% of annual capital income, 80 can receive 4 in income, which is more than 5000 per month. If this shareholder does a general job, if the salary level is 10 yuan/month, then the potential annual income is XNUMX yuan.
To make a trade-off between the two now is to do our best to operate a Tmall store, work day and night, be ready to resign at any time, recruit new people, train management, and invest 80 fights. An unknown, or a steady annual cash income of 10?
Of course, choose the latter. A person can save 80 cash, and can run a company, the ability can not be at the level of 5000 yuan a month, but at least the monthly salary reaches the level of about 1. So if you run a project yourself, the potential loss is 20 per year. This is the truth!
If it is a small factory, the situation has changed again!
The investment level of a small factory is 1000 million yuan, which is no longer a LOW factory.Hiring a dozen workers is also a basic level, and renting a factory building also requires about XNUMX square meters.Hire ten workers, then managepersonnel, Documentary, accounting, cashier must be matched, salespersonnelThere are also two or three.According to this configuration, the monthly fixed expenditure is at least 15 to 20.
If it is a processing-type factory, the gross profit is relatively high, but the flow cannot be achieved. It is very difficult to settle more than 20 processing orders per month.
If you do product sales yourself, then product development, sales channel construction, internal management, exhibition hall display must keep up, fixed investment will be doubled, and monthly expenditure will be 25 to 30.
If you sell 20 more per month, you will make a profit of 4 (not counting the increase in costs), and your annual profit will be less than 50. According to the above model, it is to sell to a scale of around 2000 million.
If the overall investment is 200 million, I estimate that this level of investment can reach 2000 million. They are not ordinary people. The payback period is 4 years.This oneIt's a return on the surface.
Where to put 200 million, you can get 10 fixed every year.RiskIncome, so it will only pay back in 5 years!
And a person who can invest 200 million yuan, build a factory from scratch, produce a good cost, and can sell 2000 million yuan in the first year, this person's level is at least 30 million yuan per year, even if the market cannot fully estimate For its value, an annual salary of XNUMX yuan is still to be given.
Based on this calculation, the annual income of working + financial management is as follows:
the first year
Do not open a factory 200 million + financial management 10 + salary 30, a total of 240 million
Sales of 2000 million in the year when the factory was opened, and 40 funds on hand
the second year
Do not open a factory 240 million + financial management 12 + salary 30, a total of 282 million
Sales of 2000 million in the year when the factory was opened, 80 of funds on hand (liquid funds, interest ignored)
The third year
Do not open a factory 282 million + financial management 14 + salary 30, a total of 326 million
Sales of 2000 million in the year when the factory was opened, 120 million in funds on hand, 5 in interest, 125 million in total
Therefore, the cost of opening the factory in three years has not been paid back, and the funds on hand are only one million yuan, and the principal of not opening the factory is more than 300 million.
A factory that can achieve this level can be said to be a very good factory, and the level of the boss can be said to be against the sky. If an accident happens at this time, such as a work injury, such as other administrative incidents, such as bad debts, it will be the result of crying without tears!
Multiple crises stifle the future of manufacturing
Looking at the current situation, I feel that the flood is coming, and bankruptcies and unemployment will become intensive and normal in the future.
Our generation is fortunate to have witnessed the tremendous changes in China. It is fortunate that universities can read it. This era has indeed given a lot of opportunities. It's just that the individual's ability is limited, and the details are not to be checked! Nevertheless, there is no dissatisfaction, after all, the overall life is better!
However, in the past 13 years, I feel that the sense of crisis has become stronger and stronger. As the most basic economic unit, it is full of unspeakable sensitivity to economic changes.
China's wealth with houses as its core faces huge challenges!I don't want to talk about the issue of price increase or collapse. It's just that this model is unsustainable. After all, it will return to the manufacturing industry, but before returning, most people still have to suffer!
If you don’t suffer, everyone is playing Buddhism, and you can live without work. This is also unsustainable! If there is no room for the failure of the previous company, there is no room for the development of the next company~
What I am more worried about is that the overall debt is increasing rapidly, and these information are available online.What is the relationship between the increase in overall debt and the original owner?Of course there is a relationship, and it's not just a yarn relationship!Most people seriously underestimate the impact of the economic depression on their personal lives. Even if you can eat, drink, shelter and use, you are inexplicably stabbed twice in the streets.BoomThe period also increases the probability~
The overall increase in debt means that there is a serious divergence between the increase in wealth and the need, which is an unsustainable model. It is impossible to borrow money without restrictions, even if the US is a superpower! What will happen if debts cannot be repaid on a large scale one day? The current beggar will starve to death, the current diaosi will become a beggar, and the current middle class will become diaosi.
The shrinking of wealth is not a major event, the major event is that everyone has problems eating. Think about it, what is the current situation of urban residents losing their jobs alone? What happens if two people are unemployed? I can't pay for pensions, pay for wages, companies close down, jobs cannot be found, and vicious social incidents have erupted in general. I shudder when I think about it!
The other is China’s internationalSituationFacing the worst period, the reason is that China's economic development has formed a de facto squeezing effect on developed countries.Every boss is afraid of usurping power, and the United States is also afraid of ChinafastBe the real boss; the United States wakes up, the traditional economic powers and powers also feel that China has grabbed their jobs, and everyone is unanimous to suppress China. After all, the development of China's economy depends on the international market, especially the US market!
Of course, the U.S. also has a reasonable bargaining chip to talk about things. To put it simply, why can your Bank of China go to the U.S. to start business, but Citi Motors can’t come to China to do business? Similarly, there are the energy field and the communications field. Why are these things that were promised to be open in the past have not yet opened?
China's economy is much more dependent on the international market than expected. We are far from being sophisticated. There are not many reasons why everyone knows why; and products produced in China are not irreplaceable. If Trump only played the sweater war against China, the situation in China would be even worse!
But what else can we buy besides buying US soybeans?Clothes and socks or screw auto parts?As long as the U.S. is not opentechnologyExports make it difficult to balance Sino-US trade relations.Or they can only ask large state-owned companies to buy products made in the United States at high prices, but they will not buy back high-tech products.technology.
No big countryCentsIt's so bad, and it's not as good as Little Pink said!
The supply side, environmental storms, fire storms, and anchorless printing of money, these policies have hit private enterprises beyond imagination, and they have also hit the regeneration of consumer power in the entire society.
This society is sick
I see that all walks of life are gradually transitioning from product competition to capital competition. There is no grass under the big trees, and the living space of small companies is getting smaller and smaller. This is the inevitable result of economic development. What should be earned should have been earned, and the chance of not earning is slim!
Many people happily think that if the "sweatshop" of small and micro enterprises is gone, the Chinese will have a good life. People with this idea naturally owe fees!Small and micro enterprises are the mainstay of Chinese peopleEmploymentPlatform, small and micro enterprises are not working, overallEmploymentIt won't be good!When unemployment reaches a certain critical point, the entire economy will enter contraction and depression.
This oneIt can show that this society is morbid. Since 2014, it has become harder to do it every year. In 16 years, we have been vigorously focusing on environmental protection. This has caused raw material prices to rise and factories to stop. Industry is really not done by humans. There is a lot of investment and little return, and there is no one. Take the plate.The most important thing is that people's hearts have changed. How many people still think that hard work can make you rich? They are all speculation, the big ones try to get the country’s money, the small ones try to suppress the cost, exploit workers, tax evasion
This year, the United States raised interest rates, but the economic data was strong. Compared to the old and chaotic Europe, and the lifeless Japan, the US economy is clearly the healthiest economy. By raising interest rates, the U.S. dollar and the United States have shown a daunting strength. If the U.S. dollar is a safe haven, if the United States is the only truly healthy super economy, then funds from all over the world will flood into the United States!
Long-term deflation of industrial products is inevitable, withtechnologyWith progress, the production efficiency of industrial products is getting higher and higher, and the supply tends to be concentrated, and oligarchs are born!For this reason, it is difficult for people or companies involved in the production and sales of standard industrial products to make profits on this chain.If you look closely at the fields of automobiles and home appliances, you will find that inflation has not caused them to increase prices, but instead continue to reduce prices, entering a stage where profits are thinner than blades!
Whether active or passive, most of the small and micro industries will eventually be squeezed out of all market shares by large-scale enterprises and oligarchs and die. Judging from this trend, the people who are thinking about doing something in industry (referring to manufacturing) now are the ones who will inevitably be eliminated in the future. There are only a few successful people. Now doing industry is mostly against the trend!
The manufacturing opportunities have gradually faded. Perhaps someone can earn the last copper plate, but it is definitely not you and me!
We are facing an increasingly complex and turbulent world;
No business model lasts forever;
No competitiveness is eternal;
No asset is stable;
As the owner or partner of a business, have you ever thought about:
The average lifespan of Chinese SMEs is only 2.5 years, and the average lifespan of group companies is only 7-8 years. Not only the life cycle of an enterprise is short, but there are few companies that can become stronger and bigger. Of course, there are many reasons why a company is not long and not big, but there is only one core source—the company’s equity has gone wrong!
The greatest sadness in life is to spend a lifetime of wisdom on tactics.When you look up, you find that your pursuit of excellence has declined in the industry and the strategy is big.directionAlso wrong.
There is an old Chinese saying that business is easy, but it is hard for a man to put it away.