Some well-known Australian economists have warned that the Reserve Bank of Australia may be forced to lower the official interest rate to zero in order to protect the Australian economy and job market.

"Sydney Morning Herald" reported that the latest Scope survey shows that most analysts believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to cut interest rates. Others believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia must adopt a series of radical policies to deal with financial risks that may occur, including zero interest rates and the "quantitative easing policy" used by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

(Image source: "Sydney Morning Herald")

二季度的通胀数据公布后,市场调低了澳联储在8月6日宣布继续降息的可能性。但即便如此,市场依然相信澳联储会在年底将利率降至0.75%。到2020年年中将会进一步下调至仅0.5%。

Economist Margaret McKenzie believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia may be forced to reduce the official interest rate to zero and consider aggressive measures to promote economic growth. "This shows the limitations of monetary policy to stimulate the economy. In fact, the Reserve Bank of Australia is already adopting quantitative easing. ."

Only 10% of economists surveyed believe that by the middle of next year, the inflation rate will return to the 2%-3% target range set by the Reserve Bank of Australia, but some believe that the inflation rate may be lower than the current 1.6 %.

(Image source: "Sydney Morning Herald")

Su-Lin On of RBC Capital Markets believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut the official interest rate to 0.5% sometime next year. At some point in the next 12 months, if domestic data continues to disappoint, the Reserve Bank of Australia will openly discuss alternative measures to boost the Australian economy.

St George economist Besa Deda believes that the low point of interest rates will be 0.75%, but he added that real interest rates may reach 0.5%.

She said that if interest rates reach 0.5%, the Reserve Bank of Australia will begin to consider other ways to promote rapid economic growth.

She said: "We believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia will take other alternative measures to stimulate the economy only when interest rate cuts cannot achieve the effect of promoting economic growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia will not easily adopt quantitative easing policies. The Reserve Bank of Australia may also continue to report to the Federal Government. Put pressure on the federal government to take more measures to boost the economy."

But economist Stephen Koukoulas said people should start to prepare for rising interest rates. "Starting from mid-2020, the market is likely to assess the risk of currency tightening."