The U.S. election is less than three months away. According to the latest CBS survey results from August 8 to 4, the former U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden (Joe Biden) in Wisconsin and The approval ratings of these two key swing states in Pennsylvania are both 7 percentage points higher than that of US President Donald Trump.

A poll conducted on Capitol Hill from August 8 to 2 shows that among the U.S. voters, Trump's approval rate is 5%, which is lower than Biden's 40% approval rate. You know, this is the smallest gap between the two people’s surveys in recent months. Many polls conducted by many institutions have shown that Biden leads by nearly 43 percentage points (for example, the Economist and YouGov in August The poll from the 10nd to the 8th is the result of Biden's 2% vs. Trump's 4%).

Trump re-elected

In fact, since May, Biden’s approval rating over Trump has always been a state of "mainstream polls," and even the polls of Trump’s Fox News. For example, on July 5 According to a poll published by News.com, Trump’s approval ratings in the three swing states of Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania lost to Biden.

Although polls cannot be used as the final standard to measure the election, they do reflect that Trump's election is worrying.

The new crown pneumonia (COVID-19) epidemic has become the biggest black swan in the US election. If it weren’t for this epidemic, Trump’s re-election would be greater than it is now: At that time, the U.S. stock market was high; the unemployment rate was low. The unemployment rate in December 2019 was only 12%, the lowest level in 3.5 years; January 50 China and the United States reached the first phase of a trade agreement this month. Trump's expectation of China's "buy, buy, buy" will cater to the demands of voters in agricultural states...all these are Trump's achievements that can be used to show off.

The outbreak of the epidemic has put the unemployment rate in the United States at a high level. The unemployment rate in July was 7% (lower than the peak of 10.2% in April. Such a figure is not a big problem for countries such as Canada. For Americans who have no savings or social security, it is a serious problem, a political problem of the US government), which is still 4% higher than the peak of the economic recession triggered by the 14.7 financial crisis in October 2008. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States Department of Labor on August 2009, as of July 10, the number of consecutive applications for unemployment benefits was 10 million, which is still at a high level ten times the level of the same period last year (8). Affected by the epidemic, by the end of June, China's agricultural purchases from the United States had not yet reached this year's target level. The bargaining chip Trump can use to win over voters is diminishing.

Unlike many East Asian and European countries that are emerging from the epidemic, the United States is still struggling with the epidemic. The number of confirmed cases has exceeded 500 million and the death toll has exceeded 16. Since the beginning of the epidemic, Trump has been "self-affirming", preaching that "the number of people diagnosed in the United States is more because of the number of people tested." In an interview with Australian reporters, he emphasized that the fatality rate in the United States (the number of deaths divided by the number of infections) is low. Even if he is unwilling to admit that the epidemic in the United States has gone to this day, he is also responsible.

The various controversies caused by the epidemic, the economy, and Trump personally are damaging the American people's confidence in Trump. His support rate has been lower than Biden's manifestation of public dissatisfaction with him, and it has made the outside world look down on his re-election.

Tepid Biden

Compared with Trump, who has always dominated the headlines of public opinion, Biden is more "quiet". This basically non-existent approach is precisely a strategy.

Trump is igniting everywhere. For Biden, "As long as Trump does, Biden doesn't do it or as long as Trump doesn't do it, Biden does it." It can be seen that when Trump does not support social distancing, Biden stays behind closed doors. When Trump refused to wear a mask in public before, Biden showed him by wearing a mask. When Trump threatened to use military force to deal with "the life of a black man is also a fate," Biden knelt on one knee and talked with the black man.

At the same time, Biden was "sit and watch" Trump making mistakes. As mentioned above, US economic and social issues and Trump's highly controversial remarks are affecting his re-election. The more you talk, the more mistakes Trump is digging for himself, and Biden just waits for him to jump off.

Biden does not have to show strong desire for expression, which helps his election. Of course, this also has Biden's personal considerations. He is a controversial person as much as Trump. For example, on multiple occasions, he has mistakenly stated that 1.2 million people in the United States have died of new crown pneumonia, and that 1.5 million people in the United States have died of gun violence (the current U.S. The actual total population is 3.3 million). After winning "Super Tuesday", he also confused his wife and sister. Incoherent expression in public is Biden's disadvantage, and he needs to speak as little as possible.

Difficult choice

For voters, it is not easy for them to choose between Trump and Biden. Trump's exaggerated and extreme remarks will only further tear American society apart, and the slurs and evasive responsibilities shown during the epidemic prevention process have even lowered the level of American leaders. This makes the outside world begin to doubt the possibility of Trump's reelection.

Trump is "unreliable," but what about Biden? It is not necessarily that he is welcomed by the people. Biden has been in politics for many years and is an "old face" in the political arena. Voters have become tired of the Democratic Party's campaign platform headed by him.

The reality is that the people have to choose between these two people. How similar this scene is to the 2016 election. Back then, many voters voted for Trump because they did not like former U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, but they did not really support Trump. This year's election is likely to turn people's attention to Biden because they hate Trump, and they may not necessarily support Biden either.