The plunge may be in 2021, most experts do not recommend buying a house in 2020
A recent survey of real estate experts by comparison website Finder showed that nearly two-thirds of the experts believe that it is not a good time to buy a house in Australia, but 35% of the experts surveyed hold the opposite view.
Reasons not to recommend buying a house
According to macro business and Yahoo Finance reports, Shane Oliver, chief economist of AMP Capital, is the main representative of opposition to current home purchases on the grounds that due to the continued weak economy, housing prices will fall in the second half of this year to 2021.
He said: "The future (economy) may weaken further. The recurrence of the Victorian epidemic and the continued development of the global epidemic show that the Chinese Communist virus is far from being controlled."
He said that if the epidemic continues to spread, the economy will further spiral down. The combination of the deteriorating employment situation, the sharp decline in immigration and the rise in rental housing, especially until the "bank-provided grace period for repayment of housing loans to respond to the epidemic is over, may force homeowners to sell properties and reduce demand. All of these Will push down prices."
The reasons listed by the comprehensive experts for entering the market now include:
First of all, the actual unemployment rate is very high, and household income will inevitably fall, especially with the suspension of JobKeeper, the government's "safeguard" program to respond to the epidemic, the employment situation may further deteriorate later this year.
Secondly, the increase in immigration has dropped to the lowest point and is difficult to reverse. This will reduce the annual demand for about 8 units. Coupled with the entry of a large number of Airbnbs short-term rental properties into the long-term rental market, this will lead to a surge in the number of available rental properties, especially in Sydney. And Melbourne's city centre.
Furthermore, although the bank has allowed homeowners to suspend mortgage repayments for four months, Australian banks are tightening lending standards and will soon put stock properties on the market.
Finally, the official interest rate is already at its lowest point. This means that there is almost no room for further reductions in mortgage interest rates.
In short, the Australian property market is facing severe headwinds and prices may fall further.
Reasons to consider buying a house
Terry Ryder, general manager of Hotspotting.com.au, believes that now is the best time for first-time buyers to enter the market.
He said that Australia should not be regarded as a single market, and the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne should not be regarded as typical samples of the national real estate market.
He said: “I think it’s a good time to buy properties in many parts of Australia, especially in remote regional centers and smaller capital cities. I will avoid certain areas of Sydney and certain areas of Melbourne, but in large In most areas, this is a good time to search (property purchase)-especially for first-time buyers,"
According to Metropole real estate strategist Michael Yardney, whether you should buy a house in 2020 varies from person to person.
He said: "Anytime" can be the worst or best moment to buy a property. This actually depends on the individual's goals, budget, schedule and risk profile. "
He analyzed that if you just became unemployed or lacked income security under the current economic situation, then buying a house with a loan is indeed risky. In fact, it may be difficult to obtain a house loan. However, if the economic situation is stable and there is a down payment, then with the current mortgage interest rate of 2% and there is still room for bargaining when buying a house, then 2020 may be the only good opportunity to buy a house in a lifetime.
Responsible editor: Jane Jian