Recently, Jack Ma, who is a little bit blessed, said a lot of "unconventional" words and stabbed a "horse's nest" in the financial circle.
He criticized traditional banks as "pawnshop thinking"; mocked the Basel Agreement as a "club for the elderly" and stifled innovation; pointed out that China's financial problems are not systemic risks, but lack of financial ecosystems.
Ma Yun said these remarks at the second Bund Finance Summit on October 10. It was supported by a lot of manpower and was also widely spread. The outside world believed that Ma Yun, who dared to shoot, was back.
However, public opinion quickly changed. Later, official regulatory agencies and official media successively came forward to criticize Ma Yun. Some named him by name and some were more implicit.
Zou Jiayi, Deputy Minister of Finance: To prevent financial technology from becoming a means of illegal arbitrage
Zou Jiayi said that it is necessary to establish and follow corresponding market rules to prevent financial technology from inducing excessive financial consumption, prevent financial technology from becoming a means of evading regulation and illegal arbitrage, and prevent financial technology from fostering a "winner takes all" monopoly.
Zou Jiayi pointed out that financial technology has not changed the nature of finance that relies on credit and leverage. While improving service efficiency and enhancing financial accessibility, it also increases the challenge to financial security.
"Faced with the impact of the epidemic, the implementation period of the Basel Agreement III was moderately relaxed, and the tolerance of financial supervision in various countries has been appropriately increased, which has played an important role in maintaining financial stability and promoting economic recovery." Zou Jiayi said that deregulation must be prudent and careful. .With breakthroughs in vaccine research and development, the global economy may accelerate the recovery next year, and the financial sector is prone to self-circulation, leverage, and accumulation of bubbles. It is necessary to adjust financial regulatory policies in a timely manner.
Zhou Xiaochuan, President of the Chinese Finance Society: Some young people rely on excessive borrowing to overspend and spend extravagantly
Zhou Xiaochuan said that in the long run, China's savings rate will change further, that is, under the development strategy of "dual cycle", especially the internal cycle, the internal cycle will be smoother.
Zhou Xiaochuan reminded that he also closely observed the significant reduction in the savings rate of the younger generation in China. This has a positive aspect and helps expand domestic demand; there is also a worrying aspect that some young people are over-consuming by borrowing too much. , Luxurious consumption, whether it will be a good thing in the future is not entirely known.But overall the savings rate will be adjusted further.The future financing pattern of the “Belt and Road” will be related to this.
Shang Fulin, Director of the Economic Committee of the XNUMXth National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference: Fintech must not violate the basic laws of financial operation
Shang Fulin suggested that in order to make better use of financial technology, it is necessary to adhere to the positioning of financial technology in serving the real economy and expand its application in the field of inclusive finance.
At the same time, it is necessary to highlight financial attributes and prevent financial risks.Shang Fulin believes that financial technology is essentially a technology-driven financial innovation activity.Regardless of whether it is called financial technology or technology finance, financial attributes must never be forgotten, and the basic laws of financial operations must not be violated, otherwise the market will inevitably be punished.
"Such lessons are everywhere." Shang Fulin said that some of the previous activities such as online lending and virtual currency transactions were financial chaos under the cloak of "financial technology" and must be resolutely rectified.
In addition, Shang Fulin believes that accelerating the pace of financial technology supervision is also essential.
"Digital information dissemination is fast, widely related, and has great influence. The traditional risk prevention model that relies on on-site inspection or off-site supervision report manual analysis and judgment is becoming more and more difficult to deal with." How to supervise financial technology?Shang Fulin said, one is to improve the regulatory framework.Closely monitor changes in business models based on technological innovation, and establish standardized regulatory rules and standards.
Unlike the above-mentioned official statements, the official media directly criticized Ma Yun's relevant remarks.
Guangming.com: Jack Ma’s problem is not as simple as Zhang Guan Li Dai
Guangming Daily, a subsidiary of Guangming Daily, sponsored by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, published a commentator's article on October 10 entitled "Ma Yun speaks or is not alarmist, but he is arrogant."
If you look at the current situation of "running" yesterday in China's financial industry, and today "exploding", Mr. Ma's statement that there are problems in China's financial industry supervision is a true reality.However, what kind of problem exists is not covered by the word "problem".Obviously, if it is true as Teacher Ma said, "This is forbidden and that is forbidden," then there will be no Alipay and Ant Financial.If, in fact, there is "this is not allowed and that is not allowed", the scale of Chinese mobile payment users can "curve overtaking" to the top of the world, and there are also "explosions" one after another, then it can only show that financial supervision is not a place. I didn't care about it, but I didn't care about it.
However, if it is said that financial supervision should not be regulated and should not be regulated, then financial innovations such as Alipay and Ant Financial should be classified as "regulated" under the "senior club" or " What about the "Should I control or not" item?
"Such a logical contradiction is not due to the pre-existence of Zhang Guan and Li Dai. Of course, the problem may not be as simple as Zhang Guan and Li Dai. Because the above-mentioned speech by Teacher Ma is not a post-class post, but is about to be listed in the Ant Group IPO).” The article stated that in the recent period, the valuation of Ant Group has continued to rise, and its latest value has exceeded 3 trillion, which will become the largest IPO since the stock market.However, the so-called market valuer is also the money of stockholders.
How to supervise the money of so many investors is a problem. Without supervision, it is absolutely impossible.
The article stated that it is one thing whether the Basel Agreement is a "senior's club", and whether it should be managed by the "senior's club" is another question.It was after the 2008 financial crisis that Basel (III) included the supervision of Ant Financial's financial services.Without this kind of supervision, the size of the IPO will definitely be proportional to the sound of "explosive thunder."
Securities Times: Cannot simply antagonize supervision
The Securities Times, headed by the People’s Daily, published an article on October 10 entitled "It is unfair to antagonize financial regulation", stating that “simply antagonize regulation and even complain that the hard constraints of regulation have fundamentally blocked financial business. The development and innovation of China are difficult to make sense in logic and reality, and they are obviously unfair."
According to the article, not only banks are like pawnshops, Jack Ma’s favorite "ant" is not genetically different from pawnshops.The former mainly focuses on tangible mortgage assets, while the latter accepts more intangible credit mortgages.In terms of "mortgage constraints" and repayment of owed money, whether it is a bank like a pawnshop or an "ant" who takes the future as its mission, they are really comrades in the same trench.
As far as the starting point of external supervision is concerned, the purpose of supervision is obviously to maintain the safety of the subject of supervision. Only on the basis of safety, whether it is a bank, a pawnshop, or an "ant", can they survive, develop, and better. Locally provide their own services for the real economy, society and lenders, and realize their own interests and development in the process.The original intention of external supervision is obviously not to restrain or restrict a person or a system.
"In the foreseeable period, external supervision and constraints will not be substantially relaxed, and with the advancement of technological means, supervision will be more efficient. Only within the framework of effective supervision, financial business development and Innovation is possible and there is enough room for expansion." The article said.
The above five statements are not groundless, nor are they casual chats of ordinary people after dinner, and they all come from the official, and the deep meaning behind them is what everyone thinks.
Attachment: I sincerely hope that the ant group will do a good job in the ant empire.
This article is reproduced from the public account: Fundamental Drive (ID: jibenmianqd)
1. The ant empire is a miracle of the convergence of Internet spirit and small and micro businesses.
The valuation of Ant Group in the past three months has been increasing. According to media speculation, the latest listed market value may exceed3万亿，这个市值超过工（1.8万亿）农（1.1万亿）中（9500亿）建（1.6万亿）With the growth of the Republic, the four major industries have contributed greatly to helping the world's second economy. The Ant Army relied on small and micro enterprises to surpass it in just over 10 years.
President Ma proudly said that Ant has become the largest IPO price in human history, and behind this is also a miracle of hundreds of millions of leeks. (Ps. Ant sells funds and develops funds by itself, and speculates in its newly issued stocks without avoiding interest. It is best not to supervise such a good thing.)
The masses are the main force to create miracles, whoever is for the masses, who relies on the masses.But when ants serve small and micro businesses, they are still sucking blood from small micro businesses. There is only one word in between.
2. It is said that Ant Group is a loan shark platform packaged by financial technology. Although it is exaggerated, it is not too far from the truth.
According to the disclosed data, Ant Group has 10 billion+ individual users, 8000 million+ business users,Digital paymentThe transaction size is 118 trillion (Alipay),Micro loan technology platformAmong the loan balances, consumer credit is 1.7 trillion, operator’s credit is 4000 billion (Huabeiborai, etc.),Financial Technology PlatformAsset management scale of 4.1 trillion (funds Yu'ebao, etc.),Insurance Technology Platform518 billion (selling insurance), in addition toInnovative business, Such as blockchain, database, etc. In the first half of 2020, the ratios of the above parts from the income side are 36:39:15:8, of whichMicro loan technology platformIt accounts for as high as 39% and is its largest source of revenue.Huatai estimates that over 7% of Ant Group's profits come from micro loans.
Take Huabei as an example. The minimum interest rate is 2000 yuan, the average interest rate is around 2000 yuan, and the per capita loan balance is about 15 yuan.Popular understanding is that if college students with no income want to consume in advance, they should ask President Ma to borrow XNUMX yuan, with an annualized interest of about XNUMX%.Principal Ma gave carrots in one hand (borrowed without collateral) and a gun in the other (not repaying the money included in Sesame Credit makes it difficult for you to move). Huabei's bad debt rate is extremely low, which is exquisite in business.
There is a contradiction in this. In a speech yesterday, President Ma claimed that traditional banks need mortgages when opening pawn shops. Ali relies on credit big data without collateral. Then ant accurately retrieves loans, relying on big data to eliminate potential bad, or relying on Sesame Credit and surrounding Do threats to the surrounding shopping infrastructure?
Since there is credit big data as a business advantage, it also claims to overthrow the bank’s monopoly profiteering,To be determined to be inclusive of small and micro businesses, why not give college students an annualized interest rate of 5-6% or even lower under the premise of achieving a precise portrait and a low default rate?Why should we encourage college students to consume in advance while making huge profits from college students?
3,OnBund Financial ConferenceAt the meeting, President Ma declared aloud the revolution of the new finance to the old finances in a triumphant posture of the world.It seems to start with an attack on innovation, but it actually threatens to continue to give the green light to supervision.
The child cried because he didn't eat enough milk. Looking at the size of the ant today, it has already crushed the size of the four major lines. The ant is not a child. The ant is already a giant baby, and will become a giant gold swallowing beast if accidentally.
In the past seven or eight years, despite the ups and downs of the innovation scale of China’s financial system, the absolute high ground for global innovation has not been sufficiently tolerant of financial innovation or even the regulators’ cautious spurs. Virtual currency market.Cut through the definition of a hindsight, saying that the messed up p2p loan is not online finance. Only ant loans are the real online finance. The sewage of innovation failure is poured on the government, and the cost of innovation failure is left to the society. The biggest victory of innovation is to scold your mother while eating milk. This position is not authentic..
If the market value of 3 trillion yuan does not satisfy Principal Ma, will the ant group's ambitions be 30 trillion yuan to repeat the story of the dragon slaying boy becoming an evil dragon?
4. Almost all of Ant's revenue is related to finance, but it has always emphasized its technology label.
According to agency forecasts, in 2020, Ant Group's net profit may exceed 320 billion yuan. If the market value of 3 trillion yuan, the valuation will be as high as 100 times.The current valuation of the four major banks is only 5-6 times. Only by claiming that they are technology companies can they break free from the valuation constraints of financial stocks.
Ant's payment, loans, wealth management, and insurance are under the supervision of the Central Bank, Banking Regulatory Commission, Securities Regulatory Commission, and Insurance Regulatory Authority respectively. Only by claiming to be a technology company can Ant completely break free from the cage of regulatory agencies.Supervision is the natural enemy of scale, and supervision is the natural enemy of speed.
Banking, government and insurance require a license, and technology does not require a license.Internet companies, cross-border sabotage, bypassing licenses, no shackles, invincible scale effect, and inherently have the potential for exponential growth. If there is no regulated Wuzhishan, believe it or not, ants can really pierce the sky.
As long as the supervision is green, the market value of 3 trillion will not be the end of the ants, and the size of GDP is their limit.For example, PK dropped all banks, funds, insurance, and even PK dropped the central bank, sweeping the traditional financial territory with the posture of Internet oligarchs sweeping everything.
5. Take loans as an example:
What is the Basel Accord that Principal Ma ranted over the weekend?
One of the core is the capital adequacy ratio. The popular understanding is to control leverage, which means that financial business must have sufficient capital as a guarantee. Insufficient principal, business scale and risk are capped accordingly.
At present, only a very small part of Ant’s most focused loan business is self-employed lending (Internet merchant banks, and Zhejiang has not approved the small loan license but Chongqing has given him, etc.). Due to capital restrictions, Ant has to make large loans. Only regular banks can enter the market to assist in loans. In the process, Ant Group and other financial institutions will share the spreads (such as fun shops under naked loans).
If President Ma’s wishes were followed, the Basel Accord would go aside. Without capital restrictions, Ants could kick all cooperative banks to lend themselves. The profit margins and lending scale would be explosive, through traffic and channels. Killing all banks is the boundary of ants.
Without capital restrictions, as soon as Ants borrows money, the debt ratio of the people across the country will double (all numbers anyway), and everyone is happy (anyway). Ant's profits and stock prices have skyrocketed. Ant employees reduced their holdings and became rich. As for the national debt ratio The negative effects of insufficient consumption or thunderstorms in the future are all the monstrous floods behind them.
Innovation must pay a price, the society must bear it, and the society must be tolerant. What to do with the principal Ma?
6. Take payment as an example:
Principal Ma also specifically mentioned digital currency during the weekend, suggesting that you don't set standards first, make contributions first, and meet future needs first.The central bank's DECP is on the line, and the opponent with potential impact is the current Alipay WeChat payment. In contrast, Alipay has the world's largest blockchain patent reserve.The illocutionary point is that the central bank's DECP should not be launched in a hurry. The focus of discussion may not be the dispute over the development concept of digital currency, but the dispute over interests and positions.
After all, Facebook on the other side is tossing the global currency (Libra). Why does Alipay have no such power?
Imagine further, what would happen if the central bank completely deregulated ants?Relying on its technical foundation, big data accumulation (the largest database of production, sales, and consumption) and the flow advantage of national applications, Ant can quickly become a central bank and print currency directly in Alipay (it does not matter whether it is a digital currency or not, the currency itself It is a symbol), even if there is no "printed" currency, Alipay can quickly "create" derivative currency by relying on its existing credit system.
M0, M1, M2..., as long as the authority is given, Alipay can get involved in every aspect.
Alipay can be the People's Bank of China.
7. The end of the oligarchy is that Internet giants dominate everything in the economy. Ants become leeches, sucking every citizen.
Take "Black Mirror" as an example. People who like science fiction movies are not unfamiliar with the future digital scene. Everyone has a code that determines your social role and all personal wealth.
If the development is endless, this wealth code may be written by Alipay in the future. "You must have (Sesame) credit to beg for food. Without (Sesame) credit, you don't even have food." Principal Ma said.Cyber oligarchs are governments, and codes are social rules.
The society is grateful for the innovation and convenience brought by ants, and the capital market has also given sufficient valuations. Many of the criticisms of traditional supervision and the banking system in President Ma’s speech are also blatant, but innovation is used to make the world out of control. Capital will, as investors and consumers, must be vigilant.
Capital pursues excess profits, and the essence of finance is exploitation. This is Marx's view.Technology is changing, and the human nature behind it has not changed, nor has the capital, which is the condensate of desire, changed. After capital grows, capital will have an independent will to seek continuous expansion, and when necessary, it will try to control everything (such as the media). Even try to expel everything (such as supervision).
A question is also worth thinking about, whether the winning resource accumulated by ants-big data for all is the personal privacy of users, and if not, should it become a state-owned asset or a public resource?
In the face of ants that have grown into giants, what we need to call for is not to give giants more room for innovation, but whether to strengthen supervision and anti-monopoly on giants to make room for more small and micro enterprises.
I sincerely hope that the Ant Group will do a good job in the ant empire and not lose control of its ambition and slip into the ant empire.