Australia – Australia-China trade dispute continues. Can Australia find other markets to replace China – Australia Chinatown

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At present, there is still no solution to the trade friction between Australia and China, and many affected exporters are actively looking for alternative markets.But this is easier said than done.

A composite of the Chinese and Australian flags on cracked ground.

As the Sino-Australian trade tension continues, some people have called on Australia to focus on markets outside of China.

ABC News: GFX/Jarrod Fankhauser

In the ongoing trade dispute between Canberra and Beijing, China has shown a non-committal attitude. Chinese officials blame Australia for today’s tensions.

中国外交部发言人赵立坚在周二(11月17日)晚间的记者会上说,澳大利亚国内一些人“地视中国发展为威胁”,是导致中澳关系急剧下滑的根本原因。

Zhao Lijian was also asked about his response to the comments made by Australian Trade Minister Simon Birmingham (Simon Birmingham) earlier this month. Senator Birmingham previously stated that “China is the decision-making power” when discussing trade issues with China.

For months, federal government ministers have been unable to talk to Chinese ministers on the phone, and Senator Birmingham has been calling on Chinese officials to talk directly with the Australian government.

"The current serious difficulties facing China-Australia relations are something China does not want to see, and the responsibility for this situation lies entirely with China," said Zhao Lijian.

在看不到解决方案的情况下,许多受中国影响的出口商正在寻找替代市场,以出售自己的商品和服务。

下面我们来看看这些市场是什么样的,以及是否认为这些替代市场能够成为长期的解决方案。

What are the alternative markets in Australia?

Two harvesters in a field.
Some Australian products are easy to find in other markets, but not all.
(Landline: Kerry Staight)

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Two harvesters in a field.

Some Australian products are easy to find in other markets, but not all.

Landline: Kerry Staight

According to statistics from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, China is undoubtedly Australia's largest export market and two-way trading partner.

In the 2018-19 fiscal year, China was the destination of 32.6% of Australia’s exports of goods and services, with exports amounting to US$1347 billion-Japan was Australia’s second largest export market in that fiscal year, accounting for 13.1% of total exports. 591 billion US dollars.

During the same period, Australia's other top export markets were South Korea, the United States, India, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and Malaysia. These countries accounted for 2.5% to 5.9% of Australia's exports.

These countries and countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam may be potential alternative markets for Australian products that can no longer enter China.

However, simply finding other places to sell goods and services is easier said than done.

Monash学副教授史鹤凌说,虽然一些商品可以在其他市场销售,但像国际教育这样的产业将更难向中国以外的国家转移。

“从长远来看,澳大利亚可以找到出口教育服务的替代[留学生],特别是向印度、印度尼西亚或马来西亚等新兴体出口,” 史博士说。

“但坦率地说,从短期来看,用一些替代来取代大规模的中国学生是相当困难的。”

并且尽管一些消费品有可能转移到其他市场,但却严重依赖中国市场。

“澳大利亚可以向台湾和日本等不同地区、不同体出口葡萄,[但]考虑到铁矿石的话,那麻烦就更大了,” 史博士说。

以上国家能成为可依赖的出口市场吗?

A bucket of grapes is thrown into a sorting tray.
为澳大利亚葡萄寻找新市场可能说起来容易做起来难。
(Supplied: John Kruger)

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A bucket of grapes is thrown into a sorting tray.

为澳大利亚葡萄寻找新市场可能说起来容易做起来难。

Supplied: John Kruger

这是一个大问题,而且对于每个产业same.

悉尼科技澳中关系研究所所长詹姆斯·劳伦森(James Laurenceson)表示,对替代市场的希望“可能有点放错了地方”。

"China [Gross Domestic Product] is expected to grow by 1.9%, the United States will go backwards by 4.3%, the Eurozone will go backwards by 8.3%, India-the biggest hope to replace China-will go backwards by 10.3%, and even ASEAN will go backwards by 3.4%. " He said.

“澳大利亚企业无法选择全球购买力的,更不用说堪培拉了,今年就是一个典型的例子。”

Dr. Lawrence said that although the political tension between Australia and China intensified in 2020, exports to China still accounted for a higher proportion of total exports than ever before.

"In the first nine months of this year, 9% of our merchandise exports went to China, up from 40.5% last year." He added that the cost of entering new markets is also worrying.

“这不仅关乎于在越南找到喜欢澳大利亚葡萄的消费者,你还必须树立品牌,建立分销网络等等。”

Dr. Shi said that if exporters choose to sell in alternative markets, they also need to consider the factor of declining profits.

"If Australia exports goods to some alternative markets, because of lack of demand, prices must fall," he said.

"You should expect profits to fall."

Industries that profit from the high profit margins that Chinese consumers are willing to pay will find this particularly difficult, which further strengthens the call for companies to achieve market diversification.

Red lobsters swim in a tank of clear water
龙虾出口也受到了中国的贸易.
(ABC South East SA: Isadora Bogle)

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Red lobsters swim in a tank of clear water

龙虾出口也受到了中国的贸易.

ABC South East SA: Isadora Bogle

"If you are a grain grower and you sell grain on the global market, whether you sell to China or anywhere else, the prospects may be good-because there are many buyers, and you have a fairly standardized product ," Dr. Lawrence said.

"But if you are a lobster fisherman, it becomes more difficult, because China is a country that is extremely willing to pay a much higher price for your output than any other country [product]."

Will other markets be better than China in the long run?

Chinese President Xi Jinping raises a glass of wine while standing in front of a Chinese flag
Under Xi Jinping's leadership, China has become increasingly arbitrary.
(Reuters)

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Chinese President Xi Jinping raises a glass of wine while standing in front of a Chinese flag

Under Xi Jinping's leadership, China has become increasingly arbitrary.

Reuters

In the political dispute with Canberra, China deliberately targeted Australian exporters, which led some people to question whether the risks associated with trading with China have become too high.

Dr. Lawrence said that although the possibility of China's use of coercive measures against Australian companies is "absolutely a real risk", he does not believe that alternative markets will be a safer choice.

"When you enter the alternative market, you have to deal with other types of risks, such as Vietnam-guess what, it is also a dictatorial, one-party communist country," he said.

"India is a highly nationalist market with very poor protection of intellectual property rights.

"China brings risks - yes, these risks have increased - but how does this compare to other countries?"

Dr. Lawrence believes that companies need to hedge their risks by looking for more comprehensive risk mitigation strategies, rather than "simply reducing sales to China."

他引用了昆士兰校监彼得·瓦格斯(Peter Varghese)提出的一项建议,即将国际学生费用的利润率投资到一个基金中,如果外国学生突然无法来澳大利亚,则可以动用该基金。

史博士说,有人担心与中国的贸易障碍可能短期内会让澳大利亚后疫情时期的衰退加剧,而多样化在未来可能是对澳大利亚有利的。

"Finance has a basic rule: Don't put all your eggs in one basket," he said.

“澳大利亚其实应该让商业伙伴多元化……从长远来看,这种多元化可能会让澳大利亚更能抵御任何形式的国际政治或的不可预测性。”

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