Australia-U.S. General Election: Who controls the White House and how will it affect the relationship between Australia, the United States and China? – Australia Chinatown

Release your eyes, put on headphones, and listen~!
November 11 is the U.S. election day.The Republican candidate and current President Trump will have a final sprint and contest with the Democratic candidate Biden.How will the conclusion of the U.S. election affect the future direction of the relationship between Australia, the United States and China?Three Chinese professors from three universities in Australia explained their views.

Cut out of Joe Biden and Donald Trump facing each other with shape of donkey and elephant head in background.

ABC News: Jarrod Fankhauser

11月3日是美国大选日。共和党候选人、现任总统特朗普将与民主党候选人拜登目前势均力敌,这意味着将展开最后的冲刺与较量。

Three Chinese-Australian scholars analyzed the potential impact of the US election on Australia-China relations from economic, political and diplomatic relations.
三位澳大利亚华裔从经济、政治以及外交关系层面分析美国大选对澳中关系的潜在影响。
(ABC Chinese)

Affected by the new crown epidemic, the proportion of American voters who chose to vote in advance and by mail has increased sharply this year, which may delay the announcement of the election results, and even the legitimacy of the election results will be questioned and challenged.

At present, the results of opinion polls by many media and political parties show that Biden is ahead of Trump. However, given that there have been major deviations in the 2016 election, the polls seem to be unable to be used as a reliable basis for predicting the results of this year's election.

而这场世界聚焦的美国大选结果又将给澳美、澳中和美中关系带来怎样的影响?本周ABC中文的《直播澳洲》节目邀请了三位澳大利亚华裔专家,从多个角度对此进行剖析。

Trump vs Biden: Who controls the ups and downs?

Less than a week after the final sprint, the Republican presidential candidate Trump still struggled-braving the rain to participate in the election campaign.
Less than a week after the final sprint, the Republican presidential candidate Trump still struggled-braving the rain to participate in the election campaign.
(AP: Evan Vucci)

As the global new crown deaths and confirmed cases continue to rise, global stock markets have once again fluctuated.

美国12个州昨天(10月28日)创下了新冠住院病例的最高纪录。在欧洲,德国和法国相继宣布强化一系列疫情管控措施,这些都对全球股市造成了极大的冲击。

Eric Kuby, chief investment officer of North Star Investment Management Corp. in Chicago, said: "It's clear that this virus has gotten out of control. And it's still rushing to the top, which is bad."

"The idea that [the new crown epidemic] will disappear is just a false assumption."

Deakin(Deakin University)国际关系专业副教授潘成鑫博士认为,这会成为特朗普连任上的一只“拦路虎”。

"点将成为很多[美国]选民在投票时的决定性因素。”

截至10月29日早上8:30,美国新冠确诊人数超过883万,死亡病例达22.7万。

The 2020 U.S. election will determine who will be in charge of the White House for the next four years. Will this affect the delicate relationship between Australia-U.S.-China?
The 2020 US general election will determine who will be in charge of the White House for the next four years. Will this affect the relationship between Australia, the United States and China?
(Reuters: Daniel Acker)

不过,蒙纳士商学院经济学教授史鹤凌博士认为,从目前竞选活动的人气上看,特朗普的人气似乎还在上升。

"I think the chances of Trump being re-elected are still very high. The most important thing is to look at public opinion. There are very few people who echo Biden wherever he goes, and Trump is completely different."

据此前曾正确预测2016年美国大选结果的“义乌指数”(通过中国义乌的候选人竞选商品的数量来预测选举结果的非官方数据)来看,今年看来又是特朗普的势头压过了拜登。

In addition, there is another variable in the US election this year, that is, the two candidates and their supporters may not recognize the election results, which may bring about a constitutional crisis in the United States.

The media is worried about whether a confrontation that tears apart American society will turn the United States of America into a more "Divided States of America."

《纽约时报》此前报道,大选前,美国枪支的销售十分火爆,以至一度脱销,另一份由加州戴维斯分校所做的研究发现,在加州,买枪者大多是首次拥枪者。

史鹤凌教授说,全球化及自动化给美国和欧洲带来了“去制造业化”,这严重削弱了大批中产阶级的利益。这种情况虽然在澳大利亚表现得不明显,但是却成了美国和欧洲部分经济体的硬伤。这种贫富分化加剧带来了族群冲突与社会的不稳定。

Will US-China relations continue to deteriorate?

U.S.-China relations have gone from bad to worse during Trump's four-year presidency.
U.S.-China relations have gone from bad to worse during Trump's four years as president.
(REUTERS: JASON LEE)

Professor Shi Heling believes that Trump's re-election will benefit China in the long run.

"Trump gave China a key but very difficult subject. This will promote the development of China's economy in the direction of marketization. This will be extremely beneficial to China's economic development in the future."

"On the contrary, if Biden is elected, there will be an ambiguous relationship between China and the United States. This is very detrimental to China's overall economic reform."

Sydney Technology(University of Technology Sydney,UTS)社会、政治学项目副教授冯崇义博士也有同感,他认为如果特朗普当选,他会继续对中国表现出强硬的一面。

"Under [Washington's] pressure, [the Chinese government] will reduce its suppression of the people. It will make [Beijing] somewhat restrained."

However, Associate Professor Pan Chengxin believes that due to the consideration of the "Thucydides trap", the United States does not want to see strong competitors appear, whether in Asia or Europe.

"in点上讲,不管是特朗普,还是拜登当选,中美之间的紧张关系还会持续下去。当然,具体的策略上,形式、方式方面有所不同。”

"Trump is uncertain and has some inexplicable tricks. From the perspective of the Chinese government, although Biden will continue to put pressure on China when he is elected, he is at least in terms of his rhetoric and the core interests of China. For example, relatively speaking, there will be no surprises on the Taiwan issue, and the predictability is relatively large."

US-Australia "iron buddies" relationship will continue

Under the "Australia-New Zealand-US Security Treaty" (AUNZUS), the United States, Australia and New Zealand are military allies, and both are members of the "Five Eyes Alliance", an intelligence-sharing alliance.

It is precisely because of this special relationship between the two countries that Associate Professor Feng Chongyi described Australia and the United States as "iron buddies".

“无论哪个[美国]总统上来,美澳关系不会有太大变化。这两个是铁哥们儿。”

He said that although the parties are rotating in power, this special relationship has never changed.

There is no cure for the deteriorating Australia-China relationship?

After 2017, Australia-China relations have also begun to decline.
Since 2017, Australia-China relations have gradually deteriorated.

Associate Professor Feng Chongyi said that the Australian government and people support the price of defending democratic and free values.

"Any policy, especially good deeds, has a price, and there is no free lunch. If you insist on your principles and don’t deal with the devil, you will lose some. Look at the Australian polls, the people are willing to bear it. ."

"Australian political circles have been talking about us doing business recently, but we cannot give up our principles. We cannot give up our basic values. Nor will we ignore the institutional, ideological and value conflicts between Australia and China."

Video Player failed to load.

A satellite map of Australia covered by China and Australian flags.

A home的华人林立问澳中关系是否会回到从前?

Play

Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.

A home的华人林立问澳中关系是否会回到从前? (
ABC Chinese
)

When answering questions from the audience's video, Professor Feng Chongyi said that it is impossible to return to the old way of Australia before 2017 that relied on the United States for defense and intelligence, and relied on China economically.

“三、四十年以来,[西方]与中国的接触参与,几乎是无地与中国合作,[西方]他们曾经有一个期待,希望在得到了这么多好处和空间之后,政治和社会方面会变得更开放,更自由,也越来越像一个民主。但是结果却和他们的善良愿望相反。”

“政权反而利用它的经济上的起飞、增长,国力的增强,来强化它的统治和数码集权主义,加强对社会的控制。也在国际舞台上推行‘战狼’外交。对周边,甚至欧美的民主都是很大的威胁。”

"Have a direct desire to infiltrate and subvert the concept of freedom and democracy. Let China have the right to speak to change the liberal international order."

However, Associate Professor Pan Chengxin does not think so.He pointed out that Australia and China are highly complementary.

"This structure determines that China will continue to be Australia's trading partner. In the next few years, China will still be the largest trading partner."

“近些年来,澳大利亚政府一直在强调在出口方面减少对中国市场的依赖,从原材料到中国留学生市场,但是说起来容易做起来难,因为没有其他能够替代中国这个大的市场。”

Professor Pan believes that as the new crown epidemic has a huge impact on the Australian economy, the damaged economy is in urgent need of recovery.

Video Player failed to load.

Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers wearing protective face masks march past the entrance to the Forbidden City

Mr. He, a Chinese who lives in Sydney, asked if there would be catastrophic consequences if Beijing controlled world leadership in today's ideological confrontation.

Play

Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.

Mr. He, a Chinese who lives in Sydney, asked if there would be catastrophic consequences if Beijing controlled world leadership in today's ideological confrontation. (
ABC Chinese
)

An audience member in Sydney asked whether China will one day become a superpower means that a world that does not talk about human rights and freedom will emerge. Professor Shi Heling said that he still has confidence in China.

"This kind of worry exists. Because in recent years, China's ideology seems to play a more important role. Second, the confrontation between China's ideology and liberal democracy is very strong."

"However, I think that global awareness of [freedom and democracy] is a universal value and that [Chinese ideology] will challenge people's lives, I think China will make changes."

“特朗普给全球设立了一个非常清晰的信号,就是说我们作为自由民主的,要设置一个底线,不允许整个社会堕落到到这条底线之下。”

Video Player failed to load.

Students at the University of New South Wales

One in读博的中国留学生姜源表达了夹在两国关系紧张之下的压力。

Play

Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.

One in读博的中国留学生姜源表达了夹在两国关系紧张之下的压力。 (
ABC Chinese
)

One inTechnology就读博士的中国留学生姜源提出,在中澳两国之间的冲突不断升级的大背景之下,他亲身感触到了遭到质疑的压力。

Associate Professor Pan Chengxin pointed out that this kind of pressure and worries are not groundless.

"For students studying in mainland China, people are suspicious. This concern is not unfounded. I think this is a problem of the Australian society's treatment of Chinese. In many cases, this suspicion is unfair and unreasonable."

"This kind of suspicion will make foreign students, or the Chinese working and studying here, feel this kind of pressure. I think this kind of pressure will turn around and it will be detrimental to Australia's multicultural construction."

He said that this was also seized by the Chinese media and increased negative publicity towards Australia.

然而,冯崇义副教授说:“如果[中国]留学生群体充当‘小粉红’,做出了一些不被国际社会接受的行为,留学生群体要好好反思[为什么澳洲社会会质疑他们]”。

Senior reporters, anchors and analysts from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) will cover the 2020 U.S. General Election for you, so stay tuned.

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation ABC sent a first-class team to report on the 2020 US presidential election.
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) sent a first-class team to report on the 2020 US presidential election.
(ABC)

At the same time, welcome to log on to the ABC Chinese Facebook page to watch the full content of the 13th issue of "Live Australia".Every Wednesday at 5:00 pm Eastern Summer Time, "Live Australia" will meet you on time.

Welcome to tell us the topics you are interested in through the contact information below, or give us valuable comments or suggestions.

Original link

"Chinatown" Fb shares selected Australian news daily, so that you can know the latest Australian news at anytime and anywhere @玩, @Immigration, @生活信息: https://www.fb.com/news.china.com.au/

[Welcome to the news to discuss cooperation! 】WeChat subscription account: news-china-com-au

Related posts

People have appreciated
Editorial reviews

Australia-Analysis: Biden's coming to power will put pressure on Australia on climate change-Australia Chinatown

2020-12-27 3: 59: 41

Editorial reviews

Australia-Brainwashed to destroy democracy?How to protect Chinese freedom of speech from being labeled-Chinatown Australia

2020-12-27 4: 11: 20

0 replies AArticle author Madministrator
    No discussion yet, let me talk about your views
Personal center
shopping cart
coupon
Sign in today
New private message Private message list
Search