Australia-US political situation analysis: Trump may have reached an "exemption agreement" with the Republican Party | Australia Chinatown

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根据《纽约时报》和霍士新闻1月24日的报道,美国前总统特朗普(Donald Trump)已经”被劝服。。。
            根据《纽约时报》和霍士新闻1月24日的报道,美国前总统特朗普(Donald

Trump)已经”被劝服”,放弃组建第三政党。特朗普高级顾问米勒(Jason
Miller) made it clear on January 1 that Trump's focus is still to help Republicans regain control of both houses of Congress in 24.

同时,国会参议院共和党人反对弹劾特朗普的呼声也越来越大。譬如,共和党参议员卢比奥(Marco
Rubio)1月24日认为,针对特朗普的二次弹劾”太愚蠢”,只会进一步拉大两党分裂。1月23日,共和党参议员科宁(John
Cornyn)甚至警吿称,这种弹劾可能会导致共和党在重夺参议院主导权的情况下对民主党籍前总统发起弹劾。柯顿(Tim
Cotton)等极端右翼议员则坚持认为,弹劾前总统”违宪”。

可以看出,离任后的特朗普和共和党人之间存在某种默契,不排除双方已经达成协议。也就是特朗普放弃组建”爱国党”,换取共和党人阻碍弹劾并判定特朗普”无罪”。

共和党最怕特朗普”自立门户”,特朗普最怕”被判有罪”。双方一拍即合,达成默契。如果特朗普被判有罪,等于是对共和党过去四年的否定,民主党也会借机推动决议,彻底否定特朗普以及保守议程。如果特朗普成立”爱国党”,共和党将进一步分裂,流失大量保守选票。保守主义就彻底走向末路了。

特朗普的最佳"Back road"

早在败选后,特朗普方面放出组建”爱国党”的消息,目的是要施压党内配合他推翻选举结果。国会山暴动后,共和党建制派开始切割,民主党借机加速对特朗普的有罪推论,特朗普团队不得不转变策略。但特朗普想要以某种形式”归来”,不太可能以第三党派创党人身份归来。

First of all, the third party cannot be a climate in the United States. In 2020, the Liberal Party will get 1.2% of the vote in the general election, while the Green Party will only have 0.2%.Without the Liberal Party, Georgia's federal senator election might not be delayed until January this year by-election.Four years ago, Hillary Clinton had 1% more votes than Trump (more than 2.09 million popular votes), while the Liberal candidate had 280%.
(448 million popular votes).

Therefore, only when the third party has developed to a certain level can it have the opportunity to separate the votes of the two parties, nor can it seize federal power.If Trump establishes a third party, it will only divide conservative voters and give the Democratic Party an electoral advantage.

Secondly, the establishment, development and growth of a political party requires not only time to settle, but also through a specific core of value, in each state (rather than individual deep red states) and the country to master political resources, especially the grassroots of the various classes. Enduring support.

特朗普之前胜选靠的是民粹主义和反智主义,外加反全球化的大气候。但民粹主义危险,很难形成被大众接受的”价值体系”,只有将其包装为”爱国主义”才有可能获得更多认可,但这也是不可持续的。特朗普的”爱国党”实际上就是拿爱国主义包装民粹主义。

再者,保守主义哲学还是主流意识形态,其效率体现在经济、税收、医改、军事和宗教等各层面。通过税改、任命保守派大法官,特朗普在保守派当中还是有地位的,而且吸引了白人工薪阶层支持。所以,特朗普无需成立第三党,只有像茶党那样成为保守派的一个”翼”,才有可能最大化地发挥政治影响力。

最重要的是,特朗普7,000多万的支持者并非铁板一块。其中一部分是”共和党传统选民”,一小部分是对民主党厌恶和失望的”自由派倒戈选民”,一部分是对”现总统”的崇拜者,还有一部分是纯粹支持他的铁粉。这四部分当中,只有最后一部分是他真正的政治基础,但仅靠这部分铁粉,还难以让他支撑一个”第三政党”。

Only by staying within the framework of the two-party system can Trump have the opportunity to compete for voters who have been forgotten or marginalized by the two parties and continue to seize political power through right-wing populism.The most feasible way is to continue to radically change the Republican Party by launching its own supporters in the primary elections for seats in both houses of Congress.Of course, the premise is that he handles his various legal proceedings well.

White House"不插手"Impeachment case

With the newly-elected Democratic senator from Georgia, the Vice President Kamala He (Kamala
Harris was sworn in under the auspices of the Democratic Party and the Senate was formally controlled.Next, the Senate about Biden (Joe
Biden)新政府内阁提名人选的审核也会加速进行。与此同时,参议院也不得不应对特朗普”煽动叛乱”弹劾案的审理。

After communication between the leaders of the two parties, the two sides decided to officially start the Senate trial on February 2.Before that, Democrats need to provide more conclusive evidence to persuade their fellow Republicans in the Senate to persuade at least 8 Republicans to turn their sides before it is possible to convict Trump.

For Trump, according to information provided by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, Bowers of South Carolina (Butch
Bowers)将是特朗普的代理律师。辩护立场重在强调”参议院判决前总统有罪违背宪法”。

Against Trump’s second impeachment, White House Communications Director Bedingfield (Kate
Bedingfield)上周曾提到,弹劾案的时间机制取决于参议院。她同时强调,拜登之前已经和参议院两党领袖通话,希望国会能够”同时”将重心放在疫情救助方面。目前来看,白宫采取不插手的态度。

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