Australia-Viewpoint: Gengzi talks about changes at the end of the year-Australia Chinatown

Release your eyes, put on headphones, and listen~!
The Chinese believe that the Gengzi Years change frequently. 2020 seems destined to mark another turning point in history, and this is an undetermined era.

Many people believe that 2020 will be remembered by history as a year of turning significance.

There seems to be some truth in the changing years of Gengzi!

ABC News: John Graham

The Chinese believe that the Gengzi Years change frequently.

1840年,大清与英国发生了“第一次鸦片”。结果,清朝失败,双方签订《南京条约》。这是中国与西方国家的第一次大规模,也是首次因战败与他们签订条约。中国被迫打开国门,五口通商,又被强行拉进大家庭,开始了近代史的阶段。

In 1900, the Eight-Power Allied Forces entered Beijing and divided China's capital into different occupation zones.The subsequent signing of the "Xin Chou Treaty" requires a compensation of XNUMX million taels of silver, which is equivalent to a "fine" of one or two for each Chinese. The "Treaty" also allowed countries to station troops in Beijing, which accelerated the demise of the Qing Dynasty.

How many people died in the Great Famine of 1960?The statements vary.China’s official statistics are 2200 million. Former Xinhua News Agency reporter Yang Jisheng believes it is 3000 million, and Dutch historian Feng Ke believes it is 4500 million.

Without the Great Leap Forward, there would be no great famine.Without the Great Famine, there would be no "Cultural Revolution".

Specifically, the Great Famine was the result of the "People's Commune" and the "Great Leap Forward", and it was also the cause of the "Cultural Revolution".These three events are the main lines of contemporary Chinese history.

There seems to be some truth in the changing years of Gengzi!

The beginning of change 

2019年12月31日庆祝跨年的人群万万没有想到2020年带来了的历史转折性的一刻。在2020年即将结束之际,人们不禁在想2021年又会是怎样一个年头?
As we bid farewell to the old and welcome the new, what "surprise" and "joy" will 2021 bring to people?
(Unsplash: Andrea Davis)

Someday in the future, when you are reminiscing about the past, you may find that many changes begin in 2020.

一场突如其来的疫情,改变了。人们开始在家办公、开会、上课、购物,从社会动物变成了网络动物。

The epidemic has not only stagnated the economy, but also closed society.People are isolated from each other, between cities, between states and countries.

This brings people many psychological problems, such as loneliness, depression, and irritability.Because of the long-term lockdown, the number of people seeking help from the "psychological hotline" in Victoria has increased by 33%, and Australia has increased by 14%.

疫情让这个更分离。歧视的增加便是疫情带来的社会后果之一。西方人歧视亚洲人,中国人歧视武汉人,一群人歧视另一群人。也加剧了社会的不平等,少数人的收入增加,多数人失去工作,更多的人收入减少。

The impact of the epidemic is slowly showing.After the epidemic, for quite some time, people will continue to work from home and reduce travel.A recent study in Australia found that only 46% of people plan to travel next year, compared to 77% in the same period last year.

人们对公共交通、城里的办公室、市区高层公寓的需求会减少。他们会搬离大都市,到郊区或乡下居住,家里要有办公的地方,也会更多地待在网络这个虚拟的in.

The epidemic affects many aspects of our lives.At the beginning of the year, when you see a person wearing a mask in a mall, you will find it strange.Now, when you see a person in a mall without a mask, you will feel strange.At the beginning of the year, it will be natural for you to shake hands with someone.Now, when you shake hands with someone, the other person will be surprised, and then stretch out your hand to show you gently.

The way you get along with your family and friends, your work habits, your attitude towards life, your future plans, and many arrangements may be affected.

After the epidemic, the urban area is no longer crowded and traffic peaks no longer appear.You might call the family doctor instead of running to see him.When a friend is visiting, you may order food to be delivered to your home instead of going to a restaurant together.When paying, you may swipe your card instead of paying cash.

Changes will gradually emerge, and university education is one of them.Because of the epidemic, students have to stay at home for remote correspondence courses after paying tuition.In the future, some courses, some majors, and even entire universities will be moved online.

Curtin University in Western Australia is planning to stop all face-to-face teaching from next year and switch to three 15-minute online lectures.In the future, if you stay at home, you can go to university, you can work and study at the same time, or you can continue to study and change jobs.

全球化1.0版的结束

The global outbreak of the new crown epidemic has become a dark horse in 2020.At present, more than 7800 million people have been infected and more than 172 million people died.
This global epidemic has caused more than 7800 million infections and 172 million deaths.
(AP: CDC)

This epidemic will end the globalization since the 20s, or the 70 version of globalization, and replace it with a regional political structure.

Only after the outbreak of the epidemic did Western countries discover that they were overly dependent on China in many aspects, from masks, gloves, medical equipment, to electrical appliances, toys, and daily groceries.As a result, they began to encourage local manufacturing and began to reduce their dependence on China.Some Western companies have begun to withdraw from China, and the Sino-US trade war has added another reason.

美国的总统选举,更让中美关系扑朔迷离。现在,尘埃落定之后,中国可能会发现,比起不靠谱的特朗普,拜登更难对付。美国不会改变特朗普的对华关系,却会改变对华策略,比如,与盟国一起抗衡中国。总之,中美关系不会再回go with.           

中国不只是和美国,而是在和这个脱钩。疫情则加快了这一进程。

战胜疫情需要合作,遗憾的是,却加剧了这个的分离。初期,各国争夺口罩、呼吸机,甚至洗手液,后来,互相封锁,互相指责,再后来,竞争研发疫苗,开展疫苗外交。

、澳大利亚等国在筹划一个没有美国主导的印太地区。

特朗普出任总统不久,美国的一些盟友就开始准备“后美国时代”的事情了。在印太地区,四国联盟在消失了几年后,以更新的姿态重又出现。跨伙伴全面进展协定(CPTPP)。“对华政策跨国议会联盟”(IPAC)。与澳大利亚签署的互惠进入协议。没有美国参与的“区域全面经济伙伴关系协定”(RCEP), 等等。

Whether it is voluntary or forced, China will begin a certain degree of "internal circulation."The consequences of this "internal loop" will definitely affect regional politics.

疫情则进一步改变了东西方的关系,在今后一个时期,这种改变将主导地缘政治,影响The pattern.

An undecided era

The COVID-XNUMX pandemic has not yet been defeated. Where does the future of the world go?
This is an era full of changes.
(Reuters: Jeenah Moon)

在2020年就要过去的时候,让人想起“一战”后的.

“一战”是一场没有价值观、“不知为什么”的,也是欧洲历史上破坏性最强的之一。经过四年的“大战”,同盟国失败,1919年1月,协约国召开巴黎和会。因为没有战败国和中立国的参加,这实际上是一场“胜者的盛宴”。会上,美国总统威尔逊鼓吹理想主义,法国总理克莱蒙苏想报复德国,英国首相劳合乔治要保住“日不落帝国”。三巨头冲突不断,外加很多“其乱如麻”的其他纠纷,包括中国的山东问题。

After seven months of quarreling, in the end, we came up with a "Peace of Versailles" that everyone was not satisfied with.In response, French Marshal Fuchs said: "This is not peace, this is a truce for twenty years."

巴黎和会闭幕的时候,人们面对的是一个更加撕裂的。他们在“一战”的阴影里,谨慎地、小心翼翼地盼望着和平时代的到来。

However, they are worried and full of misgivings, because they don't know how long this fragile peace will last.Many people know that something is going to happen, but they do not know what it is or when it will happen.

It's the same now.This is an undecided era.

In 2020, Australia-China relations continue to deteriorate.
2020年,澳中关系持续恶化。
(ABC News: GFX/Jarrod Fankhauser)

疫情改变了,改变到什么程度?还不清楚。面对疫情带来的经济衰退和社会停滞,到目前为止,人类还可以面对,但是,这种谨慎的能持续多久?

在中国,很多人相信,美国在衰落,中国在崛起。疫情更强化了他们的民族主义情感!在其他地方,人们问的更多的问题是:中国会怎样变化?将怎样与get along?

中国是要融入现有的国际秩序,改变现有的国际秩序,还是要建立一套自己的国际秩序,所有这些,又将怎样影响未来的?

Take China-Australia relations as an example. This year can be described as a decline, reaching its lowest point in XNUMX years.High-level exchanges stopped and trade sanctions continued.A patchwork picture can also stir up the nerves of the top and make our Prime Minister jump up.

To a large extent, the change in this relationship is due to the change in China.

The United States and Australia have a lot in common in history and culture, beliefs and values.Their ally relationship began in 1918 at the Battle of Hamel in France. The "World War II" deepened this ally relationship, so the 1951 "Australia-New Zealand-US Security Treaty."

从“一战”开始,两国并肩参加了大大小小几乎所有的。与美国,是澳大利亚的国家利益,不是换个政府就能解决的。

China doesn't think so, because China now is different from XNUMX years ago.China believes that I made you a lot of money, you should be obedient, you should abandon Uncle Sam, even if you don't join the gang, you should not make any comments.

China is第二大经济体,有14亿人口,是核大国,有不同的历史和文化,不同的政治体制,不同的规则。更重要的,它还有两千多年的生存技能和两百多年屈辱的历史,这让它既十分固执,又非常敏感。

这些年,中国一直在变。改变自己的同时,也在改变地区和。中国会怎样影响地缘政治,又会怎样影响格局,还是个未知数。

所以,在2020年的大门渐渐关闭,2021年的大门徐徐开启之际,我们要对未来保持谨慎的.

本文作者刘路新是澳大利亚独立学者,研究领域涵盖澳大利亚华人历史、海外华人、澳中关系及中国的社会变迁等。

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