Guest commentary: Myanmar and Vietnam are "plus points" for the legitimacy of the CCP

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Two events that occurred almost simultaneously in Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam and Myanmar, will not only affect their respective development processes, but also have great spillover effects.The biggest beneficiary of this spillover effect may be their common northern neighbor China.China's benefit is not only in the geographical sense, but also in the institutional and ideological sense.Few people pay attention to this latter point. . . .

Vietnam | Sicherheitsvorkehrungen 13. Nationalkongress in Hanoi

(Deutsche Welle Chinese Network)At the end of its one-week 1th National Congress on January 31, the 13-year-old Nguyen Phu Trong was re-elected as General Secretary without any suspense.This is the third time Nguyen has been elected and has broken the Viet Cong convention.Since the founder of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh, the successive leaders have been two terms. Nguyen Phu Trong’s three-term re-election has destroyed the Communist Party system as much as Xi Jinping’s 76th National Congress abolished the presidency of the country and pave the way for a possible lifelong leader.

In recent years, due to Xi Jinping’s political centralization and high-handedness, many people in Chinese society have turned their eyes to Vietnam, which is also governed by the Communist Party and practises socialism, and praised the so-called reforms of the Viet Cong towards democratization.In their view, since they are all Communist regimes, the Viet Cong can take the initiative to shrink power (in some people’s rumours, it promises to give up power), why can’t it?The implication is that it is not impossible, but unwilling, because a person like Xi Jinping has appeared.Xi's handle is broken and his totalitarianism is strengthened.If there is another person, even if it is not Hu Zhao, but Jiang Hu (Jin Tao), Chinese politics will not be as lifeless as it is now.

But these people who turned their eyes to Vietnam, whether they intentionally or not, are looking for the wrong reference.The internal political structure of the Viet Cong and its control over society are indeed more relaxed, but this is largely not determined by which Vietnamese leader wants to be so, but by the "path dependence" formed by Vietnam's historical heritage and national conditions.Since the establishment of the Communist Party of Vietnam, there has been no strong leader. Although Ho Chi Minh is the "father of the nation" in Vietnam and enjoys high prestige in Vietnam and within the party, he does not have the power of Mao Zedong to speak out.He is at best a Sun Yat-sen leader.

North Vietnam and South Vietnam are two constraining forces in Vietnam's political system.The former is deeply influenced by China, while the latter has been under French colonial rule for a long time and has a higher degree of westernization and identifies with the West.The leadership of the Communist Party of Viet Nam is mostly based on these two regional groups. In the “Quadrage” system of the Communist Party of Vietnam, cadres from the north generally serve as the general secretary and cadres from the south serve as the prime minister, but the latter has more power than the Chinese prime minister. Big. The "four carriages" constitute a collective leadership system and a pattern of weak checks and balances.

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