Australia-"Li Huanying" surpassed "Tang Detective 3" in daily box office, Jia Ling became the highest-grossing female director in Chinese film history (Photos) | Australia Chinatown

Release your eyes, put on headphones, and listen~!
On February 2, "Hello, Li Huanying" had a gross box office of over 16 billion. Jia Ling broke Liu Ruoying's "Later Us" 18.

2月16日,《你好,李焕英》总票房超过18亿,贾玲打破刘若英《后来的我们》13.6亿的记录,成为了中国影史票房最高的女导演。

2021年春节档这场奔向70亿、80亿的豪赌,骰盅终于揭开。截至发稿前,春节档累计票房破60亿,累计人数破1.22亿。第一二三梯队阵形也已经分明,但第一梯队最大的两颗骰子仍在空中旋转,并已交换了身位:大年初三,《你好,李焕英》凭借着猫眼9.5分,淘票票9.3分,豆瓣8.3分的今年春节档最高口碑,势能发酵,票房环比初二上涨15%,上映三天票房破10亿,并在大年初四正式开始上演华丽逆袭秀。

2月15日,《你好,李焕英》(以下简称“《李焕英》”)票房反超档期内口碑垫底的《唐人街探案3》(以下简称“《唐探3》”),问鼎当日票房冠军,排片占比进一步提升至35.6%,虽仍然低于《唐探3》,但51.7%的上座率,领先了《唐探3》15个点,意味着排片率和票房总体量有进一步上涨的可能。

从预售票房来看,接下来一段时间《你好,李焕英》每天几乎均保持着单日票冠的走势,甚至有望问鼎春节档票房冠军的宝座。日前,猫眼专业版已经将《唐探3》的预测总票房从60亿+下调至45.82亿,将《你好,李焕英》的预测总票房从25亿左右上调至52.18亿。

在影迷群体和大众群体并不一致,口碑与票房时常倒挂的时代,口碑还重要吗?当入场四天狂揽30亿的《唐探3》,从豆瓣开分之初的6.8分下降至今日的5.8分,成为系列电影最低分,《你好,李焕英》从豆瓣开分之初的8.1分上涨至8.3分,累计票房达15亿。两者上映前预售票房相差3倍,上映后前者票房走势从一骑绝尘到略显乏力,后者从厚积薄发到反击逆袭,说明口碑仍然意味着一部影片爆发长尾效应的“后劲”能有多大。《你好,李焕英》会有冲击50亿的潜力么?

Comedy queen Jia Ling, counterattack China's most promising female director at the box office?

Whether a movie can hit the box office or not is almost like metaphysics, involving factors such as luck, public opinion environment, schedule factors, and even the personal influence of actors, etc. The same path is also difficult to replicate, but reviewing each hit is basically the same. It is the common blessing of the right time and place.

之于《你好,李焕英》,交出导演处女作,并身兼主演的贾玲,其国民好感度显然是“人和”加分项之一。这个胖胖的姑娘多年来在《百变大咖秀》《欢乐喜剧人》《王牌对王牌》等综艺中担任常驻嘉宾,并出现在多届春晚舞台上,不遗余力地自嘲自黑,观众认可她的幽默、可爱、真诚,其个人知名度为影片积累了前期影响力、路人基本盘。映前从贾玲《王牌对王牌》分享与母亲的故事,到剧组做客《快乐大本营》,综艺也是本片最重要的宣发阵地,加持了影片热度。

而后续爆发力取决于影片本身。从历年春季档头部影片来看,“合家欢”的喜剧类型依然是一统春节档的主流。区别于《唐探3》的“喜剧+推理”,《李焕英》走的是“喜剧+亲情”的温情类型。前者“群殴护士”等段落引发了女性观众质疑,唐探宇宙扩大后,试图在里面加入太多元素而导致的推理弱化、笑料低俗化也并非所有人都买帐。后者可能踩中的雷区则是网上风评不佳的陈赫,其对应的做法是减少陈赫戏份、在宣发上尽量弱化陈赫,而强调沈腾和贾玲的首次合作。

As Jia Ling's reminiscence of her deceased mother, it is adapted from a 20-minute sketch, from 2016's "Happy Comedian". The original work has actually constructed a basic and complete story with a succession, laughter and tears. Prototype.The basic idea of ​​the movie is "100 minutes of comedy + 28 minutes of tears." This content formula that has been verified by theaters many times has further enriched the details of the story and also retained Zhang Xiaofei and Chen He in the original sketch. It also condenses Jia Ling's comedy circle contacts and improves box office appeal, such as friend Shen Teng and guest teacher Feng Gong.

它还原了80年代国营工厂生活的集体记忆,例如公园划船、排球场、《庐山恋》等时代符号均唤起观众共情,以符合春节档家庭团聚气氛的母女关系作为核心主题,意想不到的结尾更提升了好评率,实现催泪效果,不少观众在看后给出了“哭湿口罩”“适合带妈妈来看”一类的评价。相比已经流水线工业化的唐探系列,以及其他穿越类影片,观众在看时会投射贾玲和母亲之间的真实经历,真情实感,便是它最大的力量。

贾玲本人总是作为“女神”反面的“女汉子”形象而出现,但这种形象塑造是扁平化的,刻板的。从相声、小品、综艺到电影,表演维度的增加,表演形式的转变带来了塑造人物更立体,挖掘人性中更丰富深刻一面的可能性。当然它也不是缺点全无,例如依然有刻意、套路等小品痕迹存在。

As far as the theme type of "crossing to the past to change destiny" is concerned, from "Riding the Wind and Waves", "Charlotte's Troubles", "Overtime Cohabitation" to "Li Huanying", this is also a type of ingenuity that is prone to dark horses.From the stage play-adapted comedy of Happy Twist to the comedy adapted from the sketch, perhaps more movies adapted from the sketch will emerge in the future.

从天时地利来看,从预售开始,七部影片即已拉开了身位,《唐探3》一家独大领跑预售票房和春节前三天,破2亿的预售票房宣告着《李焕英》的逆袭潜力,余下五部影片无论是受众覆盖面还是类型吸引力都很难与之相争。积压一年的《唐探3》抬高了观众期望值,过快地释放消耗势能,口碑失利直接导致了“一超多强”格局向“双强争霸”格局的变化。同名网剧、前两部影片形成的“唐探宇宙”,长期积累的粉丝基础和IP效应,使得作为一部合格工业产品,先发优势明显的《唐探3》仍然有冲击45亿-50亿的实力,此后谁能夺得票冠宝座将是接下来的最大看点。

The hidden worries of "the most expensive Spring Festival file": the rise of online Spring Festival files, the Matthew effect intensified

“平均百元+的票价是真实的吗?今年真的看不起电影了。”今年由于多地倡导就地过年,跨省旅游受限,不少央企规定禁止出京,多年来春节档观影习惯已经培养成熟,影院成了不多的娱乐选择之一,这也造就了“最强春节档”的诞生,从初一到现在场场爆满,首日17亿破历史纪录。然而平均上涨20%-25%的高昂票价正在阻挡着许多人进影院的热情。甚至当有人在社交平台晒出多张票根时,许多留言感叹的不是对方有时间观影,而是太有钱了。

“最贵春节档”的诞生是多方因素导致的:去年春节档消失,院线普遍亏损,今年疫情仍然没有完全过去,春节期间北京规定全市各影院观影上座率不超过50%。加之票补消失,IMAX、杜比影厅增加,首日平均票价达到史上最高的50.2元,同比2019年上涨近5元,一线城市黄金场次、IMAX厅甚至直逼150元。

而“最贵春节档”引发的一系列连锁反应包括,很多人由于电影预算有限,大概率只会选择一两部社交媒体呼声最高的电影即《唐探3》《李焕英》,往年“在影院过年连看N部”“春节档全家桶”的情况很难发生,观影决策、排片率进一步向头部影片倾斜,中腰部影片的生存空间被进一步压缩收窄。

以往二八效应也颇为显着,例如2019年3部影片产出近80%的票房,但今年马太效应在高票价的推动下更严重了,两部40亿+影片之后,直接无过渡断裂式下降到7亿体量的《刺杀小说家》《熊出没·狂野大陆》,昨日情人节和今日,两大头部产出了超过80%的票房。

If "Bear Infested Wild Continent" is the only low-child animation, it has already formed IP and fixed audience, the box office volume will not be affected too much, and its reputation is acceptable but not enough to break the circle of "Samurai God Order" In addition to the announcement of the three films "Rushing Crowd" and "New God List: Nezha Rebirth", apart from the limited audience of their own types, they cannot but be said to be victims of the Matthew Effect.The "Assassination of Novelists" with an investment of up to 4 million+ may also be difficult to recover costs at present.

令人担忧的是高票价之下,非票收入是否会因此而下降,后续几天在情人节过去、以及假期社交需求下降后,春节档前几日的上座率、爆发力在初五之后还能否继续维持,大盘是否能够稳健增长。一位知名制片人在朋友圈写道:“电影逆袭的前提是盘子内生动力和外源动力都足够大,这便是这么多年积累下来的春节档的好。可以容纳百川,但是如果由于高物价而导致一个春节档只有1-2部片子可以出来的话,外源动力丧失只剩下内生动力,整体的大盘量会缩,这个是宏观经济学初级的结论。”

另一方面的隐忧是“就地过年”政策下,加之高票价作用,作为春节档主要票仓的下沉市场是否会受到影响。将时间倒回到同样票价上涨的2019年,当年票房小幅上涨1.2%,但观影人次却下滑了8.7%。

与此同时,“网络春节档”正在崛起。2月5日,在国家广电总局网络视听节目管理司指导下,由中国电影家协会网络电影工作委员会主办,优酷、爱奇艺、腾讯视频协办的2021网络电影春节档正式开启,三大平台已经官宣了40余部网络电影新片以及限免院线大片。由此,一部分观众可能向网络电影、游戏、密室逃脱剧本杀、近郊旅游等其他娱乐选择流失。

流媒体是电影行业最终的敌人吗?或许,自己永远是自己的最大的敌人。需要思考的是,在娱乐越来越多元,注意力越来越碎片化的当下,是什么样的内容让观众愿意持续付出交通+观影平均3.5小时+的时间成本,更高的金钱成本,在黑暗中与陌生人共度远离手机的两个小时,并且认为它无可替代,以及值得。

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