Australia-Experts exclaimed: China's population collapse has arrived! | Australia Chinatown

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专家惊呼:中国人口塌陷已经到来许多中国地方政府的人口数据显示,中国的人口出生率正在大幅度下降。专家以。。。
            <img border="0" src="https://cdn.china.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/04012801/20210203142801-601ab2f15e33f.jpg" style="margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto"/><br />

Experts exclaimed: China's population collapse has arrived

许多中国地方政府的人口数据显示,中国的人口出生率正在大幅度下降。专家以东北超前老龄化为例,担心“东北的今日就是全国的明日”,未来中国将面临经济与老龄化危机。

中国国家统计局于1月18日举行的新闻发布会上,推迟公布2020年的出生人口数据。但中国一些地方政府公布的出生统计数据表明,全国出生人口正在下滑,有地方和2019年同期相比更是骤降32%。

中国携程网创始人、北京大学光华管理学院教授梁建章,日前撰文指出全国人口塌陷已经到来,如果无法大幅提升生育率,这种下滑将不会见底。

梁建章发表在财新网的文章说,根据各地公布的数据及地方媒体资料显示,2020年度温州地区出生人口约为73230人,比2019年同期减少19.01%;合肥市2020年出生人口比2019年下降了约23%;台州市2020年出生人口比2019年下降了32.6%。梁建章在文章中建议,应先由转变生育政策、降低住房成本、减少税率等方面实施,才能根本性的提升生育率。

Yi Fuxian: Many policies in China are based on erroneous population data (mapped by Radio Free Asia)

美国威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校研究员易富贤着有《大国空巢:走入歧途的中国计划生育》一书,为中国人口研究领域专家。他最近在社交媒体推特上也以生育率低于全国的东北地区为例,指出“东北的今日就是全国的明日”。

易富贤强调,东北经济占全国比例从1980年的13.1%,降至2010年9.1%、2020年5.0%,其中原因之一即是老龄化。等到其它的省份达到东北目前的年龄结构,经济增长率还达不到东北目前的水平,恐影响全国经济发展。

“(中央)预测2035年经济要翻一倍,2021-2035年经济要有4.7%的年增长率。但从人口角度出发,我觉得这个可能性很小。2025年之前中国经济可能可以保持4%、5%增长率没问题,但2025年之后经济增长率就会不断下降。”易富贤告诉本台。

有民间机构推算,2019年全年的出生人口或仅有1100万,相比2018年下降400多万,再创1949年以来新低。(美联社资料图)

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the birth rate in the three northeastern provinces in 2019 was only 0.61%, even lower than the 0.68% birth rate in Japan in the same year, and Japan's aging rate ranked first in the world.

Yi Fuxian sorted out the reasons for the decline in the fertility rate in Northeast China, including the high level of urbanization, mostly immigrants with shallow roots in traditional fertility culture, a high proportion of the population within the system, more compliance with government family planning, and national policies. The marriage rate is low but the divorce rate is high, and the marriage and childbirth age is late.

虽然国家统计局今年推迟公布2020年出生人口数据,但一些地区已公布2020年全年或前几个月的出生人口数据。研究人口发展的美国马里兰大学社会学系陈绯念(Feinian
Chen)告诉本台,从过往人口结构观察可知,25-29岁的年龄段人口与30-34岁之间的人口有极大落差,前者为中国女性生育的黄金年龄,足足比下一个年龄区段少了1%左右。

"This drop is about 1%, about 1400 million people. The number of women who are able to give birth or are at their golden age has greatly reduced." Chen Feinian said.

She pointed out that if the fertility rate continues to decline in the future, the pressure of population aging will follow, which will not only affect the economy, but also cause social problems such as the care of the elderly population.Even if the government intends to save the fertility rate, it still does not help.

"As far as China is concerned, it happens much faster than other countries in the world, because China's fertility rate is falling rapidly, and the mortality rate is also falling." She said.

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