Australia-It's a complete explosion!The box office exceeded 54 billion, Jia Ling and Wang Baoqiang were on fire. Are these companies going to counterattack? | Australia Chinatown

Release your eyes, put on headphones, and listen~!
在今年春节档影院上座率不能超过50%的情况下,《唐人街探案3》等7部电影同步上线

Under the condition that the attendance rate of theaters during the Spring Festival this year cannot exceed 50%, the box office of 3 movies including "Detective Chinatown 7" has been launched simultaneously, giving theater companies that have been suppressed for a year ushered in a little respite.

On the first day of the New Year, there are "Detective Chinatown 3", "Hello, Li Huanying", "Assassination of Novelists", "Samurai Order", "Crowd Crowd", "New God List: Nezha Reborn", "Bear Haunted" "Wild Continent" 7 new films were released at the same time, attracting more than 3400 million people from across the country to enter the cinema that day, generating more than 17 billion yuan in box office throughout the day, both breaking the record of total single-day visits and single-day box office in Chinese film history.

根据统计数据,这是第三次春节档电影总票房大年初一突破10亿元大关,此前2018年和2019年总票房分别为12.7亿元和14.58亿元。

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Image source: Maoyan Professional Edition

2月15日16时30分,猫眼数据显示,春节档影片总票房已超54.7亿元。其中,《唐人街探案3》总票房超29亿元,《你好,李焕英》总票房近15亿元。

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01

热门电影背后都有哪些上市公司?

The popularity of the box office during the Spring Festival has also made people turn their attention to the investors behind the movie.

According to the data, the hot movie "Detective Chinatown 3" during the Spring Festival was produced by Wanda Film and Television Media Co., Ltd., Beijing Yitong Legend Film and Television Culture Co., Ltd., China Film, Dadi Times Culture Communication Co., Ltd., Horgos Jinyi Film Co., Ltd., etc. 23 Produced jointly by companies.

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The main producers of the dark horse "Hello, Li Huanying" currently second in the box office include listed companies Beijing Culture, Ali Pictures and Xinli Media.

The producers behind the third-largest box office "Assassination of Novelists" include Huace Film and Television.Another popular movie "Bear Infest: Wild Continent", which is suitable for all ages, is produced by Huaqiang Fangte and Hengdian Film and Television. "New God List: Nezha Rebirth", in addition to Ali Pictures, Bilibili is the producer.

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It is not difficult to see that Ali Pictures appeared frequently in this Spring Festival file. "Hello, Li Huanying", "Assassination of Novelists" and "New God List: Nezha Rebirth" are all produced by Ali Pictures.

02

影视板块行情春节前就已启动

春季档向来是国内电影市场全年发力的关键,2018-2019年春节档占全年总票房占比均超9%,去年由于疫情影响,多部重磅电影纷纷撤档或转投短视频。

直到2020年下半年影院才得以重启,《八佰》、《我和我的家乡》等电影均收获不错的票房成绩。

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就地过年背景下,线下娱乐活动受限,观影则成为了春节期间休闲娱乐活动的主要选择。受此前预售火爆的提振,影视板块行情在春节前就已经启动。

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春节前的最后一个交易周,wind影视指数上涨8.4%,横店影视涨12.8%、华谊兄弟涨11.8%、中国电影涨11.4%、万达影视涨10.7%,反映出市场对于春节档电影市场的期待。

03

影视板块流年不利

其实在疫情发生之前,影视板块就接连因为商誉“洗澡”、并购爆雷、明星税务和薪酬风波而遭遇了近四年的调整,疫情的爆发更是导致影视行业直接陷入“寒冬”。

不过随着疫苗接种,被砸入谷底的影视板块已经显示出逐步复苏回暖的迹象。从此前披露的业绩预告来看,行业内主要公司仅光线传媒和华策影视在2020年实现了盈利,行业基本面在2020年已经触底是极大概率的事件。

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Source: wind

《唐探3》的主要发行方万达电影的业绩预告显示,公司预计2020年归属上市公司股东的净利润为亏损61.5亿元-69.5亿元,远超2019年的亏损(47.29亿元)。

对于业绩变动万达方面给出的解释是:2020年受疫情影响公司下属600多家国内影院停摆近半年,澳洲院线业务亦受到影响。公司主投主控电影未能如期上映,部分影视剧拍摄制作进度也有所延后。同时还对多项并购计提了商誉及资产减值准备40亿元-45亿元。

本次大额计提后,万达电影的商誉问题基本成为过去式,很大程度上夯实了公司的资产质量,也对公司基本面构成了一大利好。

《唐探3》背后的另一家相出品方中国电影,2020年度预计将出现上市以来的首次亏损,净利润预计亏损4.65亿元-6.75亿元。

业绩亏损的主要原因在于,过去作为公司利润主要支撑的进口大片发行受到了疫情的重创,2021年其业绩能否修复至常态,需要关注未来具有票房号召力的好莱坞大片的引进节奏。

作为2020年为数不多取得盈利的影视公司,光线传媒也同样有喜有忧。一方面依靠其核心内容衍生品业务实现毛利率的上升,但另一方面原本备受期待的《姜子牙》却遭遇了口碑低于预期,公司在大IP制作方面还能否延续此前《哪吒》的成功也被打上一个问号。

光线传媒在春节档有一部《人潮汹涌》,从上映两日的口碑来看还不错,但其排片受到了《唐探3》、《你好,李焕英》等影片的挤压,排片率仅3.6%,在大片的“绞杀”之下,想要凭口碑逆袭,其难度不小。

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Image source: Maoyan Professional Edition

截至2月15日,《人潮汹涌》上映两日总票房为9145万。

另一家备受关注的影视股华谊兄弟,尽管去年因《八佰》股价受到短暂提振,但资金困局还是成为了华谊眼下最大的困境。不久前华谊兄弟还宣引入国资、互联网巨头等战投定增“补血”。在2018-2019年连续两年亏损之后,华谊能否自救引资本市场关注。

目前由华谊兄弟出品的《侍神令》无论是票房还是口碑暂未激起太大的水花,对于华谊股价的提振有限。

04

影视公司能否咸鱼翻身?

整体来看,影视公司在经历了去年的“至暗时刻”后,大部分上市公司股价处于绝对低位,在疫情缓解后有望迎来基本面和情绪面的双重改善,而眼下的春节档或许正是开启一波反弹的催化剂,过去几年影视板块均在春节后迎来一轮行情。

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Data source: wind

就投资标的来看,头部效应在影视板块也同样存在。一方面,疫情加速了院线行业的出清,市场集中度也因此得到进一步提升,另一方面近两年国产电影中内容和口碑都相对优质的影片也集中在头部电影出品公司中。

资金面也同样如此,目前布局影视股的资金还是集中在万达电影、光线传媒、中国电影等几大个股之上。

春节档又会进一步放大头部效应。正如上文提到的,在《唐探3》一家独大的挤压下,第二梯队和第三梯队影片的排片难以得到保障,以致强者越强,弱者越弱,票房越好的排片占比会提升,反之则降低。

去年《八佰》正是因为独享了暑期档末期,而成功收获了31亿的票房。因此春节档票房收益最大的必然也将是第一梯队影片。

不过尽管今年春节档前几日的战绩喜人,但后续也有以下几点需要密切关注:

首先,从观影观众的反馈来看,今年春节档电影票价存在变贵的情况,因此票房数据突破历史新高一定程度上也是受到了单价上涨的刺激。未来几日春节档的消费刚性还能否抵消票价上涨带来的一定负面影响值得关注;

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其次,历来假期档的电影上座率都会出现“前高后低”的局面。《唐探3》的上座率已从初一的69.7%下滑至初四的29.7%。

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另外,头部影片的口碑也将是关注重点,过去也曾出现过高开低走的情况。

目前几部春节档影片中,《你好,李焕英》的豆瓣评分最高,为8.3分,而热度最高的《唐探3》的评分有些不及预期,仅为5.8分。

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口碑对于春节后期电影的排片以及票房均会产生一定影响,会不会有黑马出现,拭目以待。

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