In the 2021 Spring Festival, the gamble of 70 billion and 80 billion, the dice cup has finally been unveiled.As of press time, the total box office of the Spring Festival stalls has exceeded 60 billion, and the cumulative number of people has exceeded 1.22 million.The formation of the first, second and third echelon has also become clear.But the two biggest dice of the first echelon are still spinning in the air and have exchanged positions:On the third day of the Lunar New Year, "Hello, Li Huanying" has the highest reputation in this year's Spring Festival this year with a cat's eye of 9.5 points, 9.3 points for Taoping tickets, and 8.3 points for Douban. The potential is fermented. The box office rose 15% from the second day of the month. 10 million, and officially began to stage a gorgeous counterattack show on the fourth day of the new year.
2 month 15 day,"Hello, Li Huanying"(Hereinafter referred to as "Li Huanying")"Detective Chinatown 3", the bottom of word-of-mouth during the box office overshoot period(Hereinafter referred to as "Tang Detective 3"), he won the box office of the day, and the percentage of platoons increased to 35.6%. Although still lower than "Tang Detective 3", the attendance rate of 51.7% is ahead of "Tang Detective 3". 15 points means that the platoon rate and the overall box office volume may rise further.
Judging from the pre-sale box office, for the next period of time, "Hello, Li Huanying" almost maintained the trend of single-day ticket titles every day.It is even expected to win the throne of the Spring Festival box office champion.A few days ago, Maoyan Professional Edition has lowered the forecasted gross box office of "Tang Detective 3" from 60 billion+ to 45.82 billion, and raised the forecasted gross box office of "Hello, Li Huanying" from about 25 billion to 52.18 billion.
In an era when movie fans and the general public are not consistent, and word-of-mouth and box office often go upside down, is word-of-mouth still important?When the four-day admission of "Tang Detective 30", which won 3 billion yuan in four days, dropped from 6.8 points at the beginning of Douban's opening to 5.8 points today, becoming the lowest score of the series. "Hello, Li Huanying" from the beginning of Douban's opening. The score of 8.1 rose to 8.3, and the cumulative box office reached 15 billion.The pre-sale box office difference between the two before the release was 3 times. After the release, the box office trend of the former went from being a good ride to a little weak, and the latter went from accumulating money to counterattack.Word of mouth still means how much "stamina" a film can have for the long-tail effect.Will "Hello, Li Huanying" have the potential to hit 50 billion?
Comedy queen Jia Ling, counterattack China's most promising female director at the box office?
Whether a movie can hit the box office or not is almost like metaphysics, involving factors such as luck, public opinion environment, schedule factors, and even the personal influence of actors, etc. The same path is also difficult to replicate, but reviewing each hit is basically the same. It is the common blessing of the right time and place.
For "Hello, Li Huanying",Jia Ling, who surrendered her directorial debut and also starred in her role, is obviously one of the bonus points for "human harmony".This chubby girl has served as a resident guest in variety shows such as "The Variety Show", "Happy Comedian", "Ace Vs Ace" and other variety shows for many years, and has appeared on the stage of many Spring Festival Gala, spared no effort to laugh at herself, and the audience recognized it. Her humor, cuteness, and sincerity, and her personal popularity have accumulated early influence and passersby basics for the film.Before the screening, from Jia Ling's "Ace vs. Ace" to share the story with his mother, to the crew's guest "Happy Camp", the variety show was also the most important announcement of the film, which added to the film's popularity.
The subsequent explosive power depends on the film itself.Judging from the head films of the spring files over the years, the comedy genre of "Family Huan" is still the mainstream of the Spring Festival file.Different from "Tang Detective 3"comedy"+ Reasoning", "Li Huanying" takes the warmth type of "comedy + family affection". The former "group beating nurses" and other passages aroused doubts from female audiences. After Tang Tan's universe expanded, he tried to add too many elements to reasoning. Weakening and vulgarization of jokes are not for everyone.The minefield that the latter may step on is Chen He, who has a poor online reputation. The corresponding approach is to reduce Chen He's role, weaken Chen He as much as possible in publicity, and emphasize the first cooperation between Shen Teng and Jia Ling.
As Jia Ling's reminiscence of her deceased mother, it is adapted from a 20-minute sketch, from 2016's "Happy Comedian". The original work has actually constructed a basic and complete story with a succession, laughter and tears. Prototype.The basic idea of the movie is "100 minutes of comedy + 28 minutes of tears." This content formula that has been verified by theaters many times has further enriched the details of the story and also retained Zhang Xiaofei and Chen He in the original sketch. It also condenses Jia Ling's comedy circle contacts and improves box office appeal, such as friend Shen Teng and guest teacher Feng Gong.
It restores the collective memory of life in state-owned factories in the 80s, such as park boating, volleyball courts, "Lushan Love" and other era symbols all evoke empathy among the audience. The mother-daughter relationship in line with the family reunion atmosphere of the Spring Festival is the core theme, which is unexpected. At the end, the praise rate was increased and the tear gas effect was realized. After watching it, many viewers gave comments such as "wet masks for crying" and "suitable for taking mothers to see".Compared with the Tang Detective series that has been industrialized on the assembly line, and other cross-moving films, the audience will project the real experience between Jia Ling and her mother when watching.True feelings are its greatest strength.
Jia Ling herself always appears as the image of a "female man" on the opposite side of the "goddess", but this kind of image creation is flat and rigid.From cross talk, sketches, variety shows to movies, the performance dimension has increased,The change in the form of performance has brought about the possibility of shaping the characters more three-dimensionally and exploring the richer and more profound aspects of human nature.Of course, it is not all shortcomings, for example, there are still traces of deliberate, routine and other sketches.
As far as the theme type of "crossing to the past to change destiny" is concerned, from "Riding the Wind and Waves", "Charlotte's Troubles", "Overtime Cohabitation" to "Li Huanying", this is also a type of ingenuity that is prone to dark horses.From the stage play-adapted comedy of Happy Twist to the comedy adapted from the sketch, perhaps more movies adapted from the sketch will emerge in the future.
From the perspective of time and place, from the beginning of the pre-sale, seven films have already opened their positions. "Tang Detective 3" is the leading pre-sale box office and three days before the Spring Festival, the pre-sale box office of over 2 million announced that " The counterattack potential of "Li Huanying" is difficult to compete with the remaining five films in terms of audience coverage and genre appeal.The one-year backlog of "Tang Detective 3" raised the audience's expectations, released the consumption potential energy too quickly, and directly lost the reputation.This led to a change from the pattern of "one superpower, multiple powers" to a pattern of "double powers competing for hegemony".The "Tang Tan Universe" formed by the web drama of the same name and the first two films. The long-term accumulated fan base and IP effect make "Tang Tan 3" as a qualified industrial product with obvious first-mover advantage still have an impact of 45 billion-50 million With the strength of XNUMX million yuan, who can win the title of votes from now on will be the next biggest attraction.
The hidden worries of "the most expensive Spring Festival file": the rise of online Spring Festival files, the Matthew effect intensified
"Is the average ticket price of one hundred yuan + real? I really look down on movies this year." This year, due to the promotion of local Chinese New Year in many places and restrictions on cross-provincial travel, many central enterprises have stipulated that they are prohibited from going out of Beijing. Habits have been cultivated and mature, and cinema has become one of the few entertainment options. This has also created the birth of "the strongest Spring Festival stall". From the first day of the first day to the present, the field is full, and the first day of 17 billion broke the historical record.howeverThe high ticket prices, which have risen by an average of 20%-25%, are blocking the enthusiasm of many people to enter the theater.Even when someone posted multiple ticket stubs on social platforms, many messages lamented not that the other party had time to watch the movie, but that he was too rich.
The birth of "The Most Expensive Spring Festival File" is caused by many factors:Last year’s Spring Festival stalls disappeared, and theaters generally lost money. This year’s epidemic has not completely passed away. During the Spring Festival, Beijing stipulated that all theaters in the cityThe attendance rate of the movie does not exceed 50%.In addition to the disappearance of ticket replenishment, IMAX and Dolby Cinema have increased, The average ticket price on the first day reached 50.2 yuan, the highest in history, up nearly 2019 yuan year-on-year in 5, and the first-tier cities' golden games and IMAX halls even approached 150 yuan.
A series of chain reactions triggered by the "most expensive Spring Festival file" include that many people will only choose one or two of the most popular movies on social media due to limited movie budgets, namely "Tang Detective 3" and "Li Huanying". In previous years, "in theaters" It’s hard to see the N part of the "Spring Festival stall family bucket" during the New Year.The movie-watching decision-making and film arrangement rate further tilted towards the head movie, and the living space of the mid-waist movie was further compressed and narrowed.
In the past, the 2019th effect was quite significant. For example, in 3, 80 films produced nearly XNUMX% of the box office.But this year, the Matthew effect has become more serious, driven by high ticket prices.After the two 40 billion+ films, "Assassination of Novelists" and "Bear Infested Wild Continent", which directly dropped to 7 million volumes without transition and break, the two major heads produced more than 80 pieces on Valentine's Day and today. % Of the box office.
If "Bear Infested Wild Continent" is the only low-child animation, it has already formed IP and fixed audience, the box office volume will not be affected too much, and its reputation is acceptable but not enough to break the circle of "Samurai God Order" In addition to the announcement of the three films "Rushing Crowd" and "New God List: Nezha Rebirth", apart from the limited audience of their own types, they cannot but be said to be victims of the Matthew Effect.The "Assassination of Novelists" with an investment of up to 4 million+ may also be difficult to recover costs at present.
What is worrying is whether non-ticket revenue will decline due to high ticket prices. After Valentine’s Day has passed in the next few days and social demand during holidays has fallen, the attendance and explosiveness of the days before the Spring Festival will return after the fifth day of the Lunar New Year. Whether it can continue to be maintained and whether the market can grow steadily.A well-known producer wrote in the circle of friends: “The premise of the film’s counterattack is that the plate’s endogenous power and external power are both large enough. This is the Spring Festival file accumulated over the years. It can accommodate hundreds of rivers, but if If only 1-2 films can be released for a Spring Festival due to high prices, the loss of external power will only leave the endogenous power, and the overall market volume will shrink. This is the primary conclusion of macroeconomics."
On the other hand, the hidden worry is that under the policy of "Chinese New Year in situ", coupled with the effect of high ticket prices,Will the sinking market, which is the main ticket warehouse of the Spring Festival stall, be affected?Turning the time back to 2019, when the same fare rose, the box office rose slightly by 1.2% that year, but the number of movie viewers fell by 8.7%.
at the same time,"Internet Spring Festival files" are on the rise.On February 2, under the guidance of the Network Audiovisual Program Management Department of the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television, sponsored by the Online Film Working Committee of the China Film Association, and co-organized by Youku, iQiyi, and Tencent Video, the 5 online movie Spring Festival file was officially opened. The three major platforms have been officially launched. Announced more than 2021 new online movies and blockbuster movies that are exempt from theaters.thus,Part of the audience may be lost to other entertainment options such as online movies, games, escape room scripts, and suburban travel.
Is streaming the ultimate enemy of the film industry?Perhaps, oneself will always be one's own worst enemy.What needs to be considered is that when entertainment is becoming more and more diversified and attention is becoming more and more fragmented, what kind of content makes viewers willing to continue to pay for traffic + an average of 3.5 hours of viewing time + time cost, higher monetary cost, Spend two hours away from the phone with strangers in the dark, and think it is irreplaceable and worthwhile.
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