Australia-Why did the Myanmar military seize power in a coup?China’s blueprint for interests may be damaged as a result | Australia Chinatown

Release your eyes, put on headphones, and listen~!
缅甸军方2月1日夺取政权,逮捕了昂山素季等多名执政党领导人,并宣布全国进入为期一年的紧急状态。缅甸局。。。

缅甸军方2月1日夺取政权,逮捕了昂山素季等多名执政党领导人,并宣布全国进入为期一年的紧急状态。缅甸局势如何发展到今天的状况?美国史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵认为,
这是缅甸多年来从未理顺的军政关系在不断的矛盾和摩擦中产生的一次爆发。专访实录:https://t.co/6OpMbZoDU1 pic.twitter.com/hTTC1VZU1S

— Voice of America Chinese Network (@VOAChinese)
February 2

缅甸军方当地时间2月1日上午发动政变,逮捕了包括缅甸国务资政昂山素季在内的多名执政党领导人,并且宣布全国进入为期一年的紧急状态。缅甸的局势如何发展到今天的状况?中国对缅甸的局势会作何反应?美国之音采访了美国史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵谈谈她的看法。以下是为求简洁经过编辑的专访实录:

reporter:How did the situation in Myanmar get to where it is today?

Sun Yun:实际上我们在观察缅甸过去10年,就是从2011年开始,进入我们所说的民主化进程以来,我觉得大家对缅甸民主化有一个误解,就是缅甸所追求的民主化到底是一个什么样的民主化。在缅甸的政治语言或氛围里,缅甸目前或者说过去10年的民主是一种基于2008年宪法的民主。那2008年宪法规定的有什么不一样呢?很重要的一点是它把缅甸的民主作为一个有纪律的民主。这个纪律是指由军方管辖之下的民主化进程。所以在过去10年中大家认为缅甸的政治进程在不断向前进,虽然速度比较缓慢,有时候还会有反复,但总的来说大家会觉得缅甸是朝民主的方向前进。但这里有一个问题,就是它所前进的方向是一种什么样的民主。对于军方来说,它在各个声明中都不断强调他们要保护和维护的是2008年宪法。如果政府不遵守宪法的话,宪法就要被推倒重来。所以可以看到军方这次的行动很多是和2008年宪法联系在一起的。

那么起因是什么呢?是在于去年11月份的大选,民盟在选举中取得了压倒性胜利,赢得的选票率达到了83%的高度。军方要考虑的是,有了83%的选票,如果民盟再次组阁,组成第二个民盟政府的话,对于缅甸的政局意味着什么。实际在我看来,缅甸过去10年也好30年也好,缅甸政局的核心问题就是军政关系问题。就是军人和政府如何能在政治的讨价还价中,在政治斗争中,形成一个双方都能接受的方案。过去10年中,军方基于2008年宪法认为缅甸的政治已经达到了军方可以接受的状态。但是去年的选举揭示了民盟不断上升的支持率,对于军方就产生了威胁感。从去年11月底、12月军方就开始提出选举有舞弊现象。从选举结束到发动政变为止,大概在这不到三个月的时间里,军方提了一共20多次选举有舞弊现象。

民盟政府和联邦选举委员会给军方的回应是,“我们有国际观察员,我们也有大选的程序,我们没有发现有舞弊现象”。这对军方造成了“士可忍,孰不可忍”的感觉。因为军方觉得,“我提出这么大的舞弊问题,你都可以置之不理,一句话就把军方的担忧全都拒绝了”。如果NLD(民盟政府)带着这样的态度和气势进入到第二个五年执政期,军方知道民盟的主要目的是要修宪,就是为了修改军人在议会中25%的席位。军方觉得,“如果民盟政府可以不理会我们对选举有这么大的冤屈和抱怨,那么你再执政,如果你提出修宪而我提出反对,你还是会置之不理”。一旦修宪,就触及了军方的根本,军方的特权和在国家政治生活中的地位。所以军方是不能容忍NLD抱着这样一种军方看来是傲慢的态度进入下一个五年执政期的。实际上在过去三个月中,我们所看到的军方对缅甸国内政治的权力安排产生了不满,军方一直在说“我们对这个安排有极大的不满,我们需要民盟政府做一定的妥协或姿态”。但在过去三个月民盟政府没有做这样的姿态。所以军方就认为“既然你是这样的态度,那我们就一不做二不休好了”。所以我觉得昨天爆发的这个政变,实际上是缅甸多年来从未解决的军政关系在不断的矛盾和摩擦中产生的一次爆发,其结果就是造成缅甸政治生活的极大后退。

reporter:Do you think this is a coup d'etat or a process in which the military takes power in accordance with the Constitution?

Sun Yun:At present, most people regard it as a coup.Because even if the army has opinions on the elections, but by imprisoning the Democratic League political parties and government leaders, and also shutting down communications across the country, this is obviously a military coup, and what it seeks is no longer a political solution. .Moreover, the military made a series of statements on the night of February 2st, Myanmar time, saying that it was to protect the constitution and to declare a state of emergency for the country for one year. During this period, the vice president of the military served as the acting president. All power is transferred to the military.So I think that the definition of its next coup is reasonable.

reporter:What do you think of China's response so far?If the military is really in power, how will this affect China's interests in Myanmar?

Sun Yun:The attitude of the Chinese government did not surprise me at all.This is because when China encounters political turmoil in other countries, it usually does not choose sides.We rarely see China supporting one party or condemning the domestic unrest in other countries.Therefore, the statement of the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs is very representative.China said it hopes that all parties concerned can properly resolve their differences within the framework of the Constitution and the law, while ensuring social peace and stability.This is a relatively neutral and detached attitude.So I think we will neither see China jump out to condemn the military, nor will we see China jump out to support the NLD government.Because for China, what is happening in Myanmar now is purely Myanmar's internal affairs.Even if it does not affect regional peace and security, the UN Security Council does not need to discuss it.In China’s view, the UN Security Council has no legitimate reason to discuss this matter.

所以我觉得对于中国来说,无论谁在缅甸当权,缅甸领导人都会认识到中国是缅甸国家发展不可或缺的外部势力。所以我觉得中国不担心缅甸现在发生的动荡,会伤害到中国想要在缅甸追求的国家利益。但可能对中国外交带来一些影响的是,就是我们说的2010年之前中国和缅甸军政府相处的模式。

缅甸军政府在国内的行动无疑会给国际上带来压力。而中国作为与缅甸长期存在睦邻友好关系的国家是不会指责缅甸军政府的。相反,我们看到在2010年之前的情况是,中国为军政府在国际上提供了很多支持和保护。最着名的例子就是2007年,中国曾在联合国安理会行使否决权,阻止联合国安理会关于缅甸的提案。所以过去中国为缅甸军政府在国际政治和外交上付出了许多代价。所以如果接下来缅甸军政府重新执政,我认为会给中国的外交和政治带来不断增大的压力。如果缅甸回到军政府的时代,缅甸作为国际投资的目的地,它的政治风险无疑会有极大提升。如果中国想继续通过中缅经济走廊获取印度洋出海口,或者获取通向南亚和东南亚的互联互通的枢纽,中国的经济蓝图也会受到缅甸政治动荡的影响。

reporter:上个月中国外长王毅会见了缅甸国防军总司令敏昂来。我们看到的新闻报道中说他们谈到了选举。您认为他们有没有谈到缅甸现在出现的动荡?

Sun Yun:I don't think they will discuss this matter.Because from the perspective of China's diplomacy, there is no reason or position to discuss the possibility of a military coup with the military leader of another country.If this incident spreads, China will not be able to shirk its responsibility.But we did see that Min Ang came to talk to Wang Yi about last year's general election and also expressed a lot of dissatisfaction with the general election.But we have seen Wang Yi, the official Chinese response, which is very profound.He said that the Burmese army should play its due role in Burma's political life and make positive contributions.This sentence is worthy of scrutiny.What is the proper function?What is a positive contribution?The Chinese side may have an explanation from the Chinese side: the proper role is to maintain national security and maintain national defense. This is the role of the Myanmar army; making a positive contribution can be said to be a positive contribution to the country’s construction, development and peace process.But the Myanmar Army may not make such an understanding.The Myanmar Army can say, "My due role is to protect the 2008 Constitution, and I think that the 2008 Constitution is now threatened, and my due role is to play a role through a military coup."So I think that in this kind of meeting, the two sides will not be clear or dead.In terms of China's diplomatic tradition and wisdom, it will not put itself in a position to support military coups in other countries.I think that is unimaginable.

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