Australia-Reuters survey: It will take time for the US recovery to be on track and employment growth | Australia Chinatown

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路透调查显示,拜登总统酝酿中的财政计划有助于推动经济活动,预计美国经济将在一年内达到新冠病毒疫情之前。。。

路透调查显示,拜登总统酝酿中的财政计划有助于推动经济活动,预计美国经济将在一年内达到新冠病毒疫情之前的水平,但失业率可能需要超过一年的时间才能降至2020年初的水平。

在大流行主导的2020年之后,在拟议的1.9万
亿美元的财政刺激计划的推动下,在2月8-11日的调查中,近120位经济学家对于今年复苏的信心猛增。

在56位受访的经济学家中,有51位,即超过90%者在回答另一个问题时表示,美国经济将在一年内达到疫情前水平,其中23位受访者预计六个月内会达到这个水平。

对经济复苏的乐观情绪提高了人们对未来增长和通胀的期望。TD银行集团的首席经济学家贝塔·卡兰奇(Beata
Caranci)说:疫苗的成功部署及其有效性将决定经济预测能否成为现实。”

Kalanchi said: "In the past few months, the predicted changes are conducive to a faster economic recovery. For the sake of the economy, we hope it will continue to exceed our expectations."

The survey showed that the US economy grew from a record 31.4% decline in the second quarter to 33.4% in the third quarter at an annual rate, and the fourth quarter grew by 4%.

Economic growth is expected to slow, with a growth of 2.8% this quarter, an improvement from the 23% expected in January.

预计经济将在未来三个季度加速增长,增速分别为6.0%、6.3%和4.6%,比上个月预测的4.3%、5.1%和4.0%。

2021年全年增长为4.7%,明年为3.5%,高于此前预期的4.0%和3.3%。

Nevertheless, 54 out of 53 economists believe that it will take at least a year for the unemployment rate in the United States to reach its pre-epidemic level.33 of them are expected to take more than two years.

ING economist Knightley said: “Due to the uncertainty of potential structural changes in the economy, it may take more time to restore employment. Working from home means that the population of major cities will decrease. As a result, you may not need so many bars, Restaurant, retail staff."

On the contrary, perhaps more workers will be needed outside these areas, and a better understanding of the situation will take time.

除了病毒的负面经济风险外,预计和贸易伙伴的关系也将发挥重要作用,尤其是中国。

拜登总统和习近平主席本周首次举行了电话会谈。拜登说,自由开放的印太地区是美国的当务之急。习近平警告说,对峙对两国都是“灾难”,

When asked about the direction of US-China trade relations this year, 46 economists said it would remain unchanged.Only six economists think it will improve.But no one expects the relationship to deteriorate.

西方银行(Bank of the West)首席经济学家斯科特·安德森(Scott
Anderson)说:“尽管换了新政府美国和中国近期内将仍然维持在全球贸易和技术方面的竞争地位。”

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