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Experts exclaimed: China's population collapse has arrived
The population data of many local governments in China show that China's birth rate is falling drastically.Experts take the premature aging of Northeast China as an example, worrying that "Today in Northeast China is tomorrow for the whole country", and China will face economic and aging crisis in the future.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China postponed the release of birth data for 1 at a press conference held on January 18.However, the birth statistics released by some local governments in China show that the national birth population is declining, and in some places it has dropped by 2020% compared with the same period in 2019.
Liang Jianzhang, the founder of Ctrip.com and a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, wrote a few days ago that the country’s population collapse has already arrived. If the fertility rate cannot be substantially increased, this decline will not bottom out.
Yi Fuxian: Many policies in China are based on erroneous population data (mapped by Radio Free Asia)
Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, author of the book "Empty Big Country: Family Planning in China Going Astray", is an expert in the field of population research in China.He recently took the Northeast region, which has a lower fertility rate than the whole country, as an example on social media Twitter, pointing out that "Today in the Northeast is tomorrow for the whole country."
Some private organizations have estimated that China's total birth population in 2019 may be only 1100 million, a drop of more than 2018 million compared to 400, and a new low since 1949. (Associated Press information map)
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the birth rate in the three northeastern provinces in 2019 was only 0.61%, even lower than the 0.68% birth rate in Japan in the same year, and Japan's aging rate ranked first in the world.
Yi Fuxian sorted out the reasons for the decline in the fertility rate in Northeast China, including the high level of urbanization, mostly immigrants with shallow roots in traditional fertility culture, a high proportion of the population within the system, more compliance with government family planning, and national policies. The marriage rate is low but the divorce rate is high, and the marriage and childbirth age is late.
Although the National Bureau of Statistics postponed the release of birth population data for 2020 this year, some regions have released birth population data for the whole year of 2020 or the first few months.Feinian Chen, Department of Sociology, University of Maryland, USA, studies population development.
Chen) told this station that from the observation of past population structure, there is a huge gap between the population of 25-29 years old and the population between 30-34 years old. The former is the golden age for Chinese women to give birth, which is quite a bit longer than the next The segment is reduced by about 1%.
"This drop is about 1%, about 1400 million people. The number of women who are able to give birth or are at their golden age has greatly reduced." Chen Feinian said.
She pointed out that if the fertility rate continues to decline in the future, the pressure of population aging will follow, which will not only affect the economy, but also cause social problems such as the care of the elderly population.Even if the government intends to save the fertility rate, it still does not help.
"As far as China is concerned, it happens much faster than other countries in the world, because China's fertility rate is falling rapidly, and the mortality rate is also falling." She said.
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