Australia-Experts exclaimed: China's population collapse has arrived! | Australia Chinatown

Release your eyes, put on headphones, and listen~!
Experts exclaimed: China's population collapse has arrived. The population data of many Chinese local governments show that China's birth rate is falling sharply.Experts take. . .
            <img border="0" src="https://cdn.china.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/04012801/20210203142801-601ab2f15e33f.jpg" style="margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto"/><br />

Experts exclaimed: China's population collapse has arrived

The population data of many local governments in China show that China's birth rate is falling drastically.Experts take the premature aging of Northeast China as an example, worrying that "Today in Northeast China is tomorrow for the whole country", and China will face economic and aging crisis in the future.

The National Bureau of Statistics of China postponed the release of birth data for 1 at a press conference held on January 18.However, the birth statistics released by some local governments in China show that the national birth population is declining, and in some places it has dropped by 2020% compared with the same period in 2019.

Liang Jianzhang, the founder of Ctrip.com and a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, wrote a few days ago that the country’s population collapse has already arrived. If the fertility rate cannot be substantially increased, this decline will not bottom out.

梁建章发表在财新网的文章说,根据各地公布的数据及地方媒体资料显示,2020年度温州地区出生人口约为73230人,比2019年同期减少19.01%;合肥市2020年出生人口比2019年下降了约23%;台州市2020年出生人口比2019年下降了32.6%。梁建章在文章中建议,应先由转变生育政策、降低住房成本、减少税率等方面实施,才能根本性的提升生育率。

Yi Fuxian: Many policies in China are based on erroneous population data (mapped by Radio Free Asia)

Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, author of the book "Empty Big Country: Family Planning in China Going Astray", is an expert in the field of population research in China.He recently took the Northeast region, which has a lower fertility rate than the whole country, as an example on social media Twitter, pointing out that "Today in the Northeast is tomorrow for the whole country."

易富贤强调,东北经济占全国比例从1980年的13.1%,2010年9.1%、2020年5.0%,其中原因之一即是老龄化。等到其它的省份达到东北目前的年龄结构,经济增长率还达不到东北目前的水平,恐影响全国经济发展。

“(中央)预测2035年经济要翻一倍,2021-2035年经济要有4.7%的年增长率。但从人口角度出发,我觉得这个可能性很小。2025年之前中国经济可能可以保持4%、5%增长率没问题,但2025年之后经济增长率就会不断下降。”易富贤告诉本台。

Some private organizations have estimated that China's total birth population in 2019 may be only 1100 million, a drop of more than 2018 million compared to 400, and a new low since 1949. (Associated Press information map)

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the birth rate in the three northeastern provinces in 2019 was only 0.61%, even lower than the 0.68% birth rate in Japan in the same year, and Japan's aging rate ranked first in the world.

Yi Fuxian sorted out the reasons for the decline in the fertility rate in Northeast China, including the high level of urbanization, mostly immigrants with shallow roots in traditional fertility culture, a high proportion of the population within the system, more compliance with government family planning, and national policies. The marriage rate is low but the divorce rate is high, and the marriage and childbirth age is late.

Although the National Bureau of Statistics postponed the release of birth population data for 2020 this year, some regions have released birth population data for the whole year of 2020 or the first few months.Feinian Chen, Department of Sociology, University of Maryland, USA, studies population development.
Chen) told this station that from the observation of past population structure, there is a huge gap between the population of 25-29 years old and the population between 30-34 years old. The former is the golden age for Chinese women to give birth, which is quite a bit longer than the next The segment is reduced by about 1%.

"This drop is about 1%, about 1400 million people. The number of women who are able to give birth or are at their golden age has greatly reduced." Chen Feinian said.

She pointed out that if the fertility rate continues to decline in the future, the pressure of population aging will follow, which will not only affect the economy, but also cause social problems such as the care of the elderly population.Even if the government intends to save the fertility rate, it still does not help.

"As far as China is concerned, it happens much faster than other countries in the world, because China's fertility rate is falling rapidly, and the mortality rate is also falling." She said.

        “唐人街”Fb每日分享澳大利亚精选新闻,让你随时随地知道澳洲最新 @玩乐、@、@生活资讯:https://www.fb.com/news.china.com.au/

[Welcome to the news to discuss cooperation! 】WeChat subscription account: news-china-com-au

Related posts

People have appreciated
Literary world

Australia-the first Chinese lawyer in the United States!Columbia Law School named China Studies Center after him | Chinatown, Australia

2021-2-4 22: 30: 22

Literary world

Australia-Reuters: Suspected Chinese hackers invaded the US government affecting thousands of government employees | Australia Chinatown

2021-2-4 22: 55: 25

0 replies AArticle author Madministrator
    No discussion yet, let me talk about your views
Personal center
shopping cart
coupon
Sign in today
New private message Private message list
Search