Australia-Why is the birth rate in the heyday of the Chinese dream lower than the three-year famine? | Australia Chinatown

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1961年中国人口是6亿6千万, 今天是接近14亿; 1961年仍未从大饥荒中解脱出来,今天在习主席。。。

In 1961, China's population was 6 million, today it is close to 6 billion;
In 1961, it was still not free from the great famine. Today, under the leadership of President Xi, it is already in sight to surpass the United States.
So why in such a "prosperous age", the birth population still hit a new low since 1949? #China#中国popova#中国梦

- 自由 亚洲 电台 (@RFA_Chinese)
February 10

According to statistics from the Ministry of Public Security of China, the birth population has been described as a collapse. The total number of newborns in 2020 is 1003.5 million, a new low since 1949 and even lower than the three-year famine period.After the Chinese government implemented the “comprehensive two-child” policy in 2015, in addition to a short-term spike in 2016, the birth rate in China has declined for four consecutive years. In 2020, the number of newborns has dropped by nearly 15% compared with the previous year.

According to data from the Household Administration Research Center of the Ministry of Public Security, the number of newborns born and registered in 2020 is 1003.5 million. In 2019, there were 1179 million people of the same caliber, and 1465 million people were eventually born. Therefore, in 2020, 1004 million people of the same caliber were born. The final birth can be estimated to be 1248 million.Comparing the population of 14 billion with the number of 1250 million babies born, it means that the birth rate has fallen below 1%, and 100 people have one baby, which is even lower than the three-year famine period.

Ms. Xu, who has worked and lived in Shanghai for many years, now chooses to return to Taipei to settle.Ms. Xu told this station that the pressure of going to school in China is high and the cost of childcare is high.Take her hiring a nanny as an example, RMB 7-8 thousand a month, which does not include bonuses.The market in Taipei is about 5 yuan.A month’s tuition for children in a private kindergarten in Shanghai costs 1 yuan, and a year when they go to a private elementary school costs 20 yuan. The cost of talent classes is also a big expense.


Education costs in the mainland are higher than in Taiwan

Ms. Xu pointed out that when you study in a public school in China, you have to give gifts to teachers. If you want to find a better public school, you have to introduce it to someone who has access to it. This is another expense.The cost of attending a private school in Shanghai is equivalent to attending a foreign school.With such high tuition fees, can the average middle-class family afford to raise two children?

Ms. Xu: "I have many friends who have two children. They don’t follow how the outsiders raise them. They don’t insist on going to good public schools. They must wear famous brands. If they don’t learn many talents, they will have two children. The fetuses are all simpler people I know. But I know more people don’t have a second child. They feel very stressed. He thinks that my salary is all spent on one child, and there is no money for a second child."


After the implementation of the “comprehensive two-child” policy in 2015, the total fertility rate briefly spiked to 2016 in 1.7, a significant increase from 2015, but it began to decline again in 2017, and dropped significantly to around 2018 in 1.5, and remained basically the same in 2019.

China has fallen into the trap of low fertility rate

Liang Jianzhang, a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, wrote an article "Predictions for 2021: There is no lowest fertility rate, only lower." He pointed out that the specific situation that has just occurred after the full liberalization of the two-child policy does not have long-term reproducibility.As the two-child accumulation effect tends to disappear, the total fertility rate will quickly drop to 1.2 or even lower levels, and it is clear that China has fallen into the low fertility trap.

Liang Jianzhang believes that the housing price-to-income ratio in big cities is high, the cost of childcare is high, and the proportion of Chinese women working is higher than most other countries in the world. Many professional women face the dilemma of whether to get promoted or have children.

Xu Quan, a doctoral candidate of the City University of Hong Kong, interpreted during an interview with this station that the root of today's China is still the superposition of environmental and economic problems.Environmental problems are due to the industrialization of education and medical care in China, so the cost of education and medical treatment has increased.For example, China has experienced environmental problems such as fake vaccines and low-quality milk powder, which also drove Chinese parents to be reluctant to spend huge costs to raise many children.

Xu Quan: “Because the cost of childbirth in China is very high, parents must go out to work to earn double pay. If you have another child, China’s policy encourages one more child, the economic burden is too heavy, and there is no one to take care of it, although some people will be willing to give birth. The second child, but did not receive the expected results."

The tuition rises after the privatization of education in mainland China

Xu Quan further explained that China has industrialized education and medical care.The prestigious middle schools and elementary schools in many first-tier cities in China were originally public schools. After the Chinese government reformed them, they became educational groups, which were privatized by public resources, that is, so-called "state-owned private" schools.

Xu Quan: "After privatization, profit is the priority. People who want to go to these schools will have to pay a high price. Because the Chinese tradition can't suffer the children, and the poor can't have education. Driven by this philosophy, everyone should go. Going to a good school, even in the place where the school is registered, has to pay a high cost. Now the school principal holds the quota for admission. This extra cost you may have to give gifts, which will cost a lot of money ."

Xiao Chengtai warned that China's demographic dividend is declining
2030 catch up with America's aging population

Xue Chengtai, a professor in the Department of Sociology at National Taiwan University, has been studying population issues for a long time.Xue Chengtai told this station that as early as when China opened up the "two-child" policy, he wrote an article at that time, expecting that the effect of stimulating fertility would only be "short-lived."

According to Xue Chengtai’s analysis, China has promoted “one-child” for XNUMX years, especially in cities due to the influence of living habits and concepts, and the fertility rate has changed greatly. In addition, China’s reform and opening up has developed. Young people from ethnic minorities have also reduced their fertility rates with modernization.Xue Chengtai said that as long as any country in the world moves towards modernization, the fertility rate of African countries will decline.

Xue Chengtai: "Usually the fertility rate has to be changed. There is a threshold that is very important. The total fertility rate is less than 1.3, and a woman has an average of 1.3 people. Many welfare measures are of no use. The rural areas of China are still higher than 1.3. Taiwan last year. Not yet. His political system can use the power of the country, and there is still a chance to come back with forced or semi-forced methods."

Xue Chengtai pointed out that China still enjoys a demographic dividend, that is, the working population aged 15 to 60, accounting for more than 66.7% of the total population, is called the "demographic dividend."Mainland China still has 71%, because declining birthrates and falling fertility rates will end early.

Xue Chengtai: "In China, the important thing is not the number of population, but the demographic structure, and the early ageing. Even at this point in time, the proportion of elderly people in the United States is still higher than that of mainland China. According to the current development of mainland China, its aging population will be in 2030. The proportion will catch up with the United States."

China’s population has entered a state of avalanche decline. At present, out of the world’s 70 billion people, on average, one out of every ten people is Chinese, but after 5 to 30 years, it will be reduced to one Chinese for every XNUMX talents. China XNUMX years later , An average of XNUMX old people corresponds to a young person under XNUMX years old.This is a super-aging society that has never been seen in the history of mankind. It will test the social security safety net of medical care, drugs, elderly care, and artificial intelligence.

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