CBA forecast: Australian house prices soar by 16% in two years

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澳洲最大银行联邦银行预测,澳洲独立屋价格今明两年上涨16%。(图片来源:Adobe Stock)分享联邦银行(CBA)预测,未来2年澳洲独立房价格将暴涨16%,...

House price forecast
澳洲最大银行联邦银行预测,澳洲独立屋价格今明两年上涨16%。(图片来源:Adobe Stock)

                                    联邦银行(CBA)预测,未来2年澳洲独立房价格将暴涨16%,主要由于两个因素推动。

 据澳洲金融评论报导,联邦银行的资深经济学家Gareth Aird 2月15日在一份经济报告中预测,澳洲全国独立房价格在2021年将上涨9%,2022年在此基础上继续上涨7%。
推动房价上涨的两大因素在于:破纪录的低利率以及就业劳动市场的V型复苏。澳洲的就业复苏优于预期,12月澳洲失业率为6.6%,1月份的失业率进一步降至6.4%,就业市场复苏速度之快令经济学家感到惊讶。 此外,澳联储还承诺将官方现金利率钉在0.1%的史上最低点至少至2025年。 这两大因素给澳洲房市注入强心针。
Aird指出,新签房屋贷金额大幅增加,很快就从房价和房产交易量中看出来了。多数首府城市的房价快速上涨,房地产交易量与去年同期相比大幅增加。尽管悉尼和墨尔本2021年分别有望分别上涨7.5%和7%,但其它首府城市的房价涨幅更显着。预计到今年年底,达尔文将涨12%,珀斯涨10%,布里斯班涨9.5%,霍巴特、阿德莱德和堪培拉皆涨9%。
虽然未来两年独立屋的房价涨幅将高达16%,但公寓的价格涨幅较为低调,预计未来两年上涨9%左右。 

 最近几个月,许多经济学家上调了对澳洲房价的预期。澳新银行放弃了房价跌10%的“过于悲观”的预测,暗示今年房价强劲增长。
澳洲国民银行首席经济学家Alan Oster近期对Domain表示,他预计除悉尼和墨尔本涨幅在7%至7.5%之间外,大多数首府的房地产价格将上涨10%。
Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, predicts that national house prices will rise by 2021% by 5, but said that apartment prices in the Melbourne CBD may fall by 5%.
Dr. Oliver predicts that this upward trend will continue into next year, and some capital cities, including Perth and Brisbane, will grow as high as 10%.
Maree Kilroy, an economist at the Oxford Institute for Economic Research at the Bank for International Settlements, said that although housing price forecasts appear to be strong, it is important that housing affordability has increased because price increases are offset by low interest rates.
Kilroy女士说,去年对房地产市场的厄运和悲观预测是在全球不确定性的背景下做出的,但是随着澳大利亚开始在疫情中复苏并前行,“我们有了更清晰的认识,“她说,“购买房产的家庭通常不是那些受就业影响的家庭,例如临时工。”

“他们的财务表现似乎不错。您可以通过储蓄率的提高看到这一点。”她说。

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Great welfare!What kind of preferential policies does the Victorian government provide for home buyers?

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