Australia-The Economist: Taiwan, the most dangerous place on earth | Australia Chinatown

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"To judge whether you have first-rate wisdom is to see whether two conflicting concepts can be held in the mind at the same time, and they can still function normally," "Da. . .
            

「要评判是否具备第一流的智慧,就是看心智中能否同时秉持each other的概念,而仍然能够正常运作,」《大亨小传》作者费兹杰罗(F.
Scott Fitzgerald) once said so.

Over the past few decades, through the exercise of this high-quality vague attitude, the United States and China have maintained peace on the Taiwan issue.The Beijing government said that there is only one China, the People's Republic of China under their governance, and Taiwan is part of the rebellion.The United States recognizes the one-China principle, but it has also taken 70 years to ensure that it is actually two.

However, today, the strategic ambiguity is disintegrating.The United States is increasingly suspicious and fearful that it may no longer be able to prevent China from invading Taiwan by force.Indo-Pacific Commander Davidson (ADM. Phil
Davidson)三告诉国会,他担心中国最快2027年犯台。

战争会是灾难,不只是因为台湾会发生的杀戮,以及两大核子强权对立骤升。引发灾难的另一是经济。

Taiwan is the heartland of the semiconductor industry. TSMC, the world's most valuable chip manufacturer, produces 84% ​​of the most cutting-edge chips.Once TSMC's production line is suspended, the global electronics industry can only be shut down, and the cost is immeasurable.While TSMC’s technology and expertise lead rivals for about ten years, it will take years for the United States and China to be able to match.

另一个更严峻的是,台湾是美中的竞技场。尽管没有条约约束美国扞卫台湾,中国动武依然将测试美国军力与其外交与政治决心。一旦第七舰队没有现身,中国将在一夜间成为亚洲主宰。美国在全球的盟友体认,不能倚靠美国。以来的「美利坚和平」将溃散。

为了解如何避免台湾海峡,应从理解延续过去数十年维持平和的矛盾着手。北京政府坚称,有责任促成统一,即便最后的手段是军事入侵。台湾过去同意他们为中国的一部分,后则迈向民选政府强调其分野,同时没有真的宣布独立。而美国保护台湾抵御中国入侵,但又承认北京政府。

Generations of governments in the United States have inherited this conflicting diplomatic thinking without hesitation and called it the "status quo."In fact, it is the source of tension and doubt.

What has changed recently is that the United States has realized that China has continued to grow its military power across the Strait for 25 years.In the past five years, the Chinese Navy has expanded by 90
艘船舰与潜艇编制,数量是美国在西太平洋的4至5倍。中国每年建造超过100架尖端战机,部署太空,且拥有大批可以击中台湾、美国海军船舰,以及美国位在日本、南韩与关岛基地的精密导弹。在中国攻击台湾的模拟战争中,美国已经开始输了。

Some U.S. experts concluded that military superiority will eventually induce China to use force against Taiwan. It is not a final measure, but simply because they have the ability to do so.

Chugoku说法是,美国台湾危机沸腾,也许甚至一战以遏止中国崛起。中国已经践踏了香港的自治体制,也让以类似诉求感召台湾人和平统一的掉了价。南海上的贫瘠的珊瑚礁,渐渐变成了军事基地。

尽管中国明显变得更独裁、更民族主义,这样的分析还是太悲观,也许是因为对中国的敌意已经成为美国的预设心态。中国国家主席习近平尚未要人民为一场带来各方大规模伤亡和经济灾损的战争做准备。在中国共产党建党的100周年,强打的是繁荣、稳定,以及中国的区域地位和在全球舞台上愈渐重要的角色。而这一切,都可能被一场攻击置于险境。

一场战争带来的不确定性,不会只有台湾未来的治理。习近平现在有什麽承担这一切?And when can China wait for this good opportunity?

But this can only bring a little relief.No one in the United States can really know what Xi Jinping thinks today, let alone what he or his successor will think in the future.China's impatience is likely to increase day by day.Xi Jinping rightHis appetite may be higher, especially if he wants to unify Taiwan and set a gem for his political achievements.

就算他们认为战争对中国是一场豪赌,美国与台湾必须未雨绸缪。重新建立台湾海峡平衡需要耗费数年。台湾必须开始部署较少的资源在购置庞大、高昂的系统上,毕竟那面对导弹将十分脆弱,反之,应该加强足以破坏侵略的战略与技术。

America needs威慑不要中国发动侵略,同时让日本与南韩等盟友就绪,并向中国沟通其战役计画将无功而返。这将是一个取巧的平衡。一般来说,威慑会清楚传达可能遭致的报复。但美国需要更微妙的沟通。中国必须打消试图以武力改变台湾现状的意图,同时获得美国保证不会支持台湾正式宣布独立。

Maintaining blur is even harder.The hawks in Washington and Beijing can always say how untenable they are.Moreover, actions that seem to show support for Taiwan, such as the docking of American warships in Taiwan, may be dangerously interpreted by Beijing as the United States has changed its position.

It is best to put all disputes aside.As the late leader Deng Xiaoping said, those things that can only be solved by war can always be postponed to allow smarter posterity to solve them.As the most dangerous place on earth, only the politicians here face such trials.

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