Australia-The Economist: Taiwan, the most dangerous place on earth | Australia Chinatown

Release your eyes, put on headphones, and listen~!
"To judge whether you have first-rate wisdom is to see whether two conflicting concepts can be held in the mind at the same time, and they can still function normally," "Da. . .

「要评判是否具备第一流的智慧,就是看心智中能否同时秉持each other的概念,而仍然能够正常运作,」《大亨小传》作者费兹杰罗(F.
Scott Fitzgerald) once said so.

Over the past few decades, through the exercise of this high-quality vague attitude, the United States and China have maintained peace on the Taiwan issue.The Beijing government said that there is only one China, the People's Republic of China under their governance, and Taiwan is part of the rebellion.The United States recognizes the one-China principle, but it has also taken 70 years to ensure that it is actually two.

However, today, the strategic ambiguity is disintegrating.The United States is increasingly suspicious and fearful that it may no longer be able to prevent China from invading Taiwan by force.Indo-Pacific Commander Davidson (ADM. Phil


Taiwan is the heartland of the semiconductor industry. TSMC, the world's most valuable chip manufacturer, produces 84% ​​of the most cutting-edge chips.Once TSMC's production line is suspended, the global electronics industry can only be shut down, and the cost is immeasurable.While TSMC’s technology and expertise lead rivals for about ten years, it will take years for the United States and China to be able to match.



Generations of governments in the United States have inherited this conflicting diplomatic thinking without hesitation and called it the "status quo."In fact, it is the source of tension and doubt.

What has changed recently is that the United States has realized that China has continued to grow its military power across the Strait for 25 years.In the past five years, the Chinese Navy has expanded by 90

Some U.S. experts concluded that military superiority will eventually induce China to use force against Taiwan. It is not a final measure, but simply because they have the ability to do so.



一场战争带来的不确定性,不会只有台湾未来的治理。习近平现在有什麽承担这一切?And when can China wait for this good opportunity?

But this can only bring a little relief.No one in the United States can really know what Xi Jinping thinks today, let alone what he or his successor will think in the future.China's impatience is likely to increase day by day.Xi Jinping rightHis appetite may be higher, especially if he wants to unify Taiwan and set a gem for his political achievements.


America needs威慑不要中国发动侵略,同时让日本与南韩等盟友就绪,并向中国沟通其战役计画将无功而返。这将是一个取巧的平衡。一般来说,威慑会清楚传达可能遭致的报复。但美国需要更微妙的沟通。中国必须打消试图以武力改变台湾现状的意图,同时获得美国保证不会支持台湾正式宣布独立。

Maintaining blur is even harder.The hawks in Washington and Beijing can always say how untenable they are.Moreover, actions that seem to show support for Taiwan, such as the docking of American warships in Taiwan, may be dangerously interpreted by Beijing as the United States has changed its position.

It is best to put all disputes aside.As the late leader Deng Xiaoping said, those things that can only be solved by war can always be postponed to allow smarter posterity to solve them.As the most dangerous place on earth, only the politicians here face such trials.

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