Australia-Zhang Yidong: hoʻohana ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ke kālā e kūʻai ai i ka manawa, a ʻaʻole paʻa ke kulekele Fed a hiki i ka hapaha mua o ka makahiki e hiki mai ana | Australia Chinatown

E hoʻokuʻu i kou mau maka, kau i nā pepeiao pepeiao, a hoʻolohe ~!
"Ua ʻokoʻa loa ka papa hana kulekele kālā o The Fed mai mua ma hope o 2019. Ua loli holoʻokoʻa. I kēia manawa

"Ua ʻokoʻa loa ka papahana kulekele kālā o ka Fed ma mua a ma hope o 2019. Ua loli holoʻokoʻa. I kēia manawa he nui nā mea hoʻopukapuka, keu hoʻi nā mea hoʻopukapuka ma Kina ʻāina nui, e noʻonoʻo mau nei e kokoke ana e hiolo ka mākeke kālā US, kokoke e make ka US. a ua hoʻonui ʻia ka mākeke kūʻai o US. Me kahi pae kiʻekiʻe a me kahi hoʻokele waiwai maikaʻi, ke hoʻomāhuahua wale nei ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. ʻOiai pehea ʻoe e noʻonoʻo ai, manaʻo wau e hoʻonui ka Fed i ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻopaʻa. Akā i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo , hoʻohana kēia noʻonoʻo i kahi "palapala ʻāina kahiko". Manaʻo wau ke nānā nui nei ka Fed i ka hoʻonui kālā ma mua. E nānā i ka hoʻonui kālā ma mua o nā mea ʻē aʻe. "

"I ka hapa lua o ka makahiki, e kūpaʻa ka hoʻokele waiwai o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. ʻAʻole ia he manaʻo e lele ia i lalo mai ka papa he ʻumikūmāwalu i ka manawa hoʻokahi, akā e mālama ia i nā ʻano haʻalulu, a me ka ikehu kinetic o ka palena pau. e nāwaliwali ka ulu ʻana. I kēia manawa, ʻaʻohe pono e hoʻokō i nā kulekele stimulus. ʻO ka mea mua, ʻo ka nui o ka ulu ʻana o ka hoʻokele waiwai o US e lohi, a e nāwaliwali ka ikaika o ka mahina.

"I ka hapa lua o ka makahiki, e maʻalahi ka helu o ka hana ʻole (US) ... ʻO kēia pōʻaiapuni o ka emi ʻana o ka helu o ka hana ʻole ma US ma mua o ka wikiwiki a pali ... (Federal Reserve) ke nānā nei lākou i ka hana. . Loaʻa i ka United States ka piha. Ma mua o ka hana, a ma mua o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻana o nā hakakā kaiapili, he paʻakikī iā ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ke waiho aku iā ia i hoʻokahi manawa.

“美国下半年的通胀不会一下子下去,通胀的在二季度,但是下半年通胀可能还在高位徘徊,需要美联储控制住美国的实际利率。”

“在当前大国博弈的背景下,我们认为美国是用钱买时间,这是重新编了一个美国梦,意味着无论是美元、美元汇率还是美国长债利率最终服从于所谓新的美国梦,用钱来买时间,买美国经济复苏的时间,买美国内需扩张的时间,近期无论跟韩国还是一些区域,美国都希望这些区域的先进制造业能够到美国,买制造业回流美国的时间,买美国科技创新升级的时间。”

"Ma mua o ka loli o ke kulekele, hiki ke manaʻo ʻia e alakaʻi ʻo Fed i nā mea i manaʻo ʻia o ka mākeke. A ma mua o ke kulekele Fed, aia paha he mau kulekele ʻē aʻe, e pili pū me nā ʻauhau." "Ua like ke kulekele o The Fed me ka nui o nā kiwikā o ka waiwai wai honua., ʻO kēia kiwikā holoʻokoʻa ma ka liʻiliʻi i kēia makahiki a i ʻole ka hapaha mua o kēia makahiki e hiki mai ana, paʻakikī naʻe mākou e ʻike i ka paʻakikī. "

"ʻAʻole pipiʻi kēia mau ʻoihana i ka iwi ʻaoʻao o ka papa kuhikuhi kahua paʻa o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, a ʻaʻole hoʻi pipiʻi i ka honua, a ʻaʻole pipiʻi ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia i nā A-ʻae. ʻO ka mea ʻē aʻe, nā mea nāwaliwali loa ka pipiʻi. "

"ʻO ka mākeke kūʻai ʻo US ʻaʻole ia he mākeke bear. I kēia manawa, he mākeke bear ko ka mākeke kūʻai ʻo US. Pono ia i kahi ʻōnaehana ʻōnaehana honua ... Inā ʻaʻole he bear nui ka mākeke kūʻai ʻo US, ʻo ia kahi mākeke kūleʻa a i ʻole hoʻonohonoho pono. Aia nā manawa kūpono e lawe mai i nā mākeke ʻē aʻe a puni ka honua. "

"Mai noʻonoʻo ʻoi loa ka pīhoihoi o ka papa helu kumukūʻai US, a nānā ʻole i ka loea a me ka institusionalization o ka mākeke kūʻai o US. Kamaʻilio mau wau e pili ana i ke kūʻai kālā ʻana a me nā kālā hoʻopukapuka paʻa e like me ka hiki, a e ʻae i nā mea hoʻopukapuka ʻoihana e komo i nā waihona US. o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka manaʻo o ke kuhi manaʻo ma nā A-kaʻana., E noʻonoʻo i ka mākeke kūʻai ʻo US ma ke ʻano he mea kūʻai aku. "

"Ua komo ka honua i kahi manawa o ka ulu haʻahaʻa a me nā helu ukupanee haʻahaʻa. He wā hou ia o ka mediocrity. I kēia manawa, pono mākou e ʻike i nā ʻoihana ʻoi loa o ka honua ... Ua hoʻomaka ka wā o ka hoʻonohonoho honua."

5月25日,在第一财经举办的《云上会丨全球资本市场联动,美股配置价值几何?》的直播中,兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东分享了上述观点。

WeChat kiʻi_20210529105952.png, 0

ʻO ka mea aʻe ka manaʻo o ka puke hana hoʻopukapuka (WeChat ID: tuozizuoyeben) e kaʻana like me ʻoe:

He ʻokoʻa loa ka hoʻolālā kulekele kālā o ka Fed,

ʻAʻole hiki ke noʻonoʻo me ka noʻonoʻo kahiko

Q: No ka manawa mua mai ka puka ʻana mai, ua kūkākūkā nā luna Fed no ka hiki ke hoʻopaʻa i ke kulekele kālā. He aha ke ʻano o kēia no ka mākeke honua?    

Zhang Yidong: Inā ʻoe e hoʻohana i ka palapala ʻāina kahiko e hoʻāʻo e ʻike i ke ala i ka wā e hiki mai ana, manaʻo ʻoe e ʻaelike ka Fed a kūʻai i ka hōʻaiʻē i kēia manawa, a ʻo ka wā e hiki mai ana e ʻoi aku ka paʻa. Ua hewa ka hana. Ma kekahi ʻaoʻao, inā ʻoi aku ka pipiʻi o ka mākeke kūʻai ʻo US ma kahi hohonu e hōʻike ana ua ʻokoʻa loa ka papahana kulekele kālā o ka Fed ma mua o ka hala ma hope o 2019, a ua loli holoʻokoʻa.

I kēia manawa he nui nā mea hoʻopukapuka, ʻo ka mea hoʻi ma ka ʻāina nui Kina, e noʻonoʻo mau nei e kokoke ana e hiolo ka mākeke kūʻai o US, kokoke e make ka US, ua nui ke kumukūʻai ʻo US, a maikaʻi loa ka hoʻokele waiwai. Ma muli o ko lākou noʻonoʻo e pili ana i ia mea, manaʻo lākou e wikiwiki ka Fed. ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, hoʻohana kēia ʻano noʻonoʻo i kahi "palapala ʻāina kahiko". Kuhi ka manaʻo o ka Fed e nānā ana i ka hoʻonui kālā ma mua, a ʻo ka nānā ʻana i ka hoʻonui ka ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi. ma mua o kekahi.

Ke kūpaʻa mau nei ka hoʻokele waiwai o ʻAmelika i ka hapa lua o ka makahiki,

ʻAʻole pono kahi kulekele stimulus i kēia manawa

I ka hapa lua o ka makahiki, e kūpaʻa ka hoʻokele waiwai o US.ʻAʻole ia e ʻōlelo e lele ia i lalo mai ka papa he ʻumikūmāwalu i ka manawa hoʻokahi, akā e mālama ia i kahi o nā haʻalulu, a e hoʻonāwaliwali ka ikehu kinetic o ka ulu āpau āpau. I kēia manawa, ʻaʻohe pono e hoʻokō nā kulekele stimulus. ʻO kēia ka helu mua. E hoʻolohi, e hoʻonāwaliwali ka ikehu kinetic o ke kaulahao.

ʻO ka lua, mai ke kuanaʻike o ka helu o ka hana ʻole, maikaʻi loa ka ʻike waiwai ma ʻApelila.ʻO 4% ka nui o ka hana ʻole, ʻoi aku ke kiʻekiʻe ma mua o Malaki. ʻO kēia ka maʻalahi o ka hele ʻana mai kahi maʻalahi a hoʻonui, a paʻakikī e hoʻololi i ka mea nui a maʻalahi.I ka makahiki i hala iho nei, ua ʻike ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ʻekolu puni o nā hoʻokuʻu nui a me nā hoʻopakele. E lawe ka papa haʻahaʻa a me ka waena o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ke kālā hoʻolimalima a hoʻolilo mua ia. ʻOi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o nā mokuʻāina e like me 6.1%, ʻo ia ka mea kiʻekiʻe loa i ka mōʻaukala o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. ʻO ka awelika he 3-3%, ʻo ia kona pae maʻamau o ka helu mālama, no laila ʻaʻole hoihoi i ka hana a i ʻole loaʻa ka hana. I kēia hihia, kiʻekiʻe ka helu o ka hana ʻole.

Aia ka manaʻo nui o ka Fed ma ka hana

到了下半年,失业率的情况会缓解,因为他要找工作,储蓄率。但是美国下半年的经济不会那么糟,他可能打打零工就OK了,从而使得美国这一轮失业率下行相对比较平滑,而不是快速的陡峭。   

Ua ʻoi aku ka hopohopo o ka Fed e pili ana i ka helu o ka hana ʻole, no laila ke kū mai ka ʻike hoʻonui kālā ma ʻApelila, i ka lā 4 o Mei, ka manawa o US, ua ʻoi aku ka nui o ka piʻi ʻana o ka US ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia, a ua kūpikipiki ka mākeke. hoʻomaka ʻia kēlā lā. Ka haunaele liʻiliʻi.

Eia nō naʻe, he mau helu nui i loaʻa nā kuleana koho balota ma ka Federal Reserve koke, ka luna hope o ka Federal Reserve, me kahi luna koʻikoʻi ʻē aʻe, ua kuhikuhi ua ʻike lākou i ka ʻikepili a ua ʻōlelo ʻoi aku ka hopohopo o ka hana ma mua o ka hoʻololi wā pōkole. no laila ke nānā nei lākou i ka hana.Ma mua o ka loaʻa ʻana o ka hana piha a ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a hoʻokuʻu ʻia ke kaomi o nā hakakā kaiāulu, he mea paʻakikī ia na ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa e pani i ka uhi wai i ka manawa hoʻokahi.

ʻO ka piʻi ʻana o U.S.在二季度,

Kau ʻia ka piʻi ʻana ma nā kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe i ka hapa lua o ka makahiki

第三,美国下半年的通胀不会一下子下去,通胀的在二季度,但是下半年通胀可能还在高位徘徊,需要美联储控制住美国的实际利率。

Kūʻai ʻo United States i ka manawa me ke kālā a ulana hou i ka moemoeā ʻAmelika

实际利率对美国经济的复苏非常重要,进而对于名义利率也有一个引导作用。你可以看到很明显,3月中旬的时候大家都很担心,但是3月中旬我们旗帜鲜明的提出美国长债收益率不会构成系统性风险,在当前大国博弈的背景下,我们认为美国是用钱买时间,这是重新编了一个美国梦,意味着无论是美元、美元汇率还是美国长债利率最终服从于所谓新的美国梦,用钱来买时间,买美国经济复苏的时间,买美国内需扩张的时间,近期无论跟韩国还是一些区域,美国都希望这些区域的先进制造业能够到美国,买制造业回流美国的时间,买美国科技创新升级的时间。

ʻO ka ʻōlelo maʻamau, i ka mokuʻāina o kēia manawa, inā he hana, hoʻonui kālā, a i ʻole ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa e hoʻomaikaʻi i kāna hoʻokūkū a mālama i ka hoʻomau ʻana o ka ulu waiwai, mamao loa ia mai ke kahua o ka hōʻemi.

ʻAʻohe pilikia ʻōnaehana i kēia makahiki,

ʻO ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i nā hopohopo mākeke i hāʻawi ʻia i ka honua i ka manawa kūpono e hoʻolilo i nā waiwai kiʻekiʻe

做一个总结,我的看法是大家要看清楚美国精英阶层的底牌,要看清楚鲍威尔的底牌,鲍威尔明年就要决定第二轮任期,情况下,他的关注点更多在经济增长的持续性,就业的层面。所以我们说叫做覆水难收,今年没有系统性风险。

Ke hopohopo ka mākeke e pili ana i ka paʻa ʻana o nā kulekele US, a ʻo ia ka mea e hoʻonāukiuki ai i nā hopohopo o ka honua, ʻo ka haunaele hopena ka haunaele wā pōkole. unahi. Noʻu kēia. Ke noʻonoʻo nei.

Inā huli ke kulekele kālā o ka Fed i ka contraction,

He aha ka hopena e lawe mai ai?

ʻO ka mea mua, e lawe mai ka contraction i ka hoʻoponopono ʻana o nā waiwai waiwai nui, ʻoiai ma ke ʻano drastic.

第二,如果收缩,也会带来分化,特别是对于新兴市场,那个时候要关注美元的反弹对于大宗商品形成一个趋势性的压制,进而那些以中上游原和矿产为主要支柱的新兴市场就形成了一个巨大的压力,甚至会导致新兴市场的债务风险、债务危机。

No nā kumukūʻai US, ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe i loko o ia mea, ʻo nā waihona ʻino hoʻi me kekahi kumuhana, he hoʻoponopono maopopo nō hoʻi, a e hana hou ka mōʻaukala iā ia iho.He aha kā mākou e kia nei i kēia manawa?Āhea ana e huli pono.

He paʻakikī e ʻike i ke kulekele o kā Fed hana i kēia makahiki a i ʻole ka hapaha mua o kēia makahiki e hiki mai ana

Ma mua o ka hoʻololi ʻana o ke kulekele, hiki ke manaʻo ʻia e alakaʻi ka Fed i nā manaʻo o ka mākeke.A ma mua o ke kulekele o ka Fed, aia paha kekahi mau kulekele ʻē aʻe, e pili pū me nā ʻauhau.

今天下半年,也会有加税会不会被国税批准,税收的变化,以及发债,财政刺激方案。总体来说,我们认为今年乃至于明年的年初,我们基本上认为大家还可以看清楚美联储的底牌。    

ʻO ka ʻōlelo ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo ka ʻōnaehana kālā o ka honua i kēia manawa he ʻōnaehana kālā kūwaho i hoʻomalu ʻia e ka US kālā, no laila ke kaulike nei ke kulekele o ka Fed me ka nui o nā kiwikā o ka globality liquidity. Paʻakikī ka ʻike ʻana i ke kiʻekiʻena kiwikā.

ʻAʻole i kuhi ʻia inā ʻoi aku ka nawaliwali o ka hoʻokele waiwai US ma mua o ka manaʻo o kēlā me kēia, hiki nō paha ke hoʻonui iki ʻia ka pahu o ka Fed. E lawe kēia i ka hopena hope a lawe i ka ʻO nā waiwai ʻoi aku ka waiwai koina o ka honua, e like me nā waihona US kekahi mau ʻoihana kiʻekiʻe, ʻEulopa, ʻĀpana Kina A, nā waihona ʻo Hong Hong Kong, me nā mākeke e kū nei.

He maikaʻi ke loaʻa kahi manaʻo pohihihi e pili ana i ka hoʻokolokolo a ka Fed. Maikaʻi ke hoʻoholo ʻana i ke ʻano maʻamau. He paʻakikī e pololei i ka mahina a me ka pule. Lawe pū kekahi mākou i kēlā me kēia ʻanuʻu. Ma ka liʻiliʻi hiki iā mākou ke hoʻokolokolo i ka ʻo ka hana nui ʻaʻole e hōʻemi ka Fed i kēia makahiki.

ʻO ka Slow Bull a ʻo Long Bull i ka mākeke kūʻai ʻo U.S. e hoʻokele ʻia e nā ʻoihana maikaʻi loa

Q: Hiki ke hoʻomau i ka mākeke kūʻai ʻo U.S.Pehea ka lōʻihi o ka hoʻomaikaʻi?

Zhang Yidong: E ​​nānā i kēia kumuhana mai ʻekolu mau ʻaoʻao: ʻO ka mea mua, e nānā i kēia mea mai kahi ʻano kūkulu o ka manaʻo.ʻO ke ʻano o ka mākeke kūʻai ponoʻī o ʻAmelika he ʻekolu mau papa kuhikuhi nui. Kamaʻilio pinepine mākou e pili ana iā Dow Jones, Nasdaq, a me S&P. Ma waena o kēia mau papa kuhikuhi ʻekolu, ʻo nā ʻoihana ʻoi loa o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, nā Apple a me Microsoft i lawe i ka papa kuhikuhi.Pēlā nō, kānana mākou i nā ʻoihana ʻoi loa ma Kina e hana i kahi papa kuhikuhi. ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo mākou kekahi bipi lōʻihi loa.

你不要有一个想法,美国所有的都好。美国市场大量的公司推出了,清零了,直接退市了,有相当一批公司没有成交量,像死了一样,流动性折价。所以成熟市场真的是赢家通吃,最优秀的公司它的业绩靠谱,大家给他符合盈利增长相匹配的估值,所以我们认为它的持续性比较长。    

ʻO ka mākeke kūʻai ʻo U.S. ponoʻī ka hōʻuluʻulu helu, a ʻo kāna ʻano e koho pono ai i nā ʻoihana ʻoi aku ka waiwai o ke aʻo ʻana. Eia kekahi, ʻo kāna ʻano kālepa, ʻo T + 0 a i ʻole nā ​​ʻano hana hōʻaiʻē palekana, hōʻoia i kona lohi. ʻO Long Niu, ka ʻoihana maikaʻi loa. ʻaʻole e ala aʻe i nā manawa he nui i hoʻokahi makahiki a hoʻokahi makahiki a me ka hapa. Ma hope o ka piʻi ʻana, e Pāʻani ana, a ʻaʻole hiki ke ala aʻe i mau makahiki.

Mai kahi manaʻo kūkulu, kipaku ʻia ka mākeke kūʻai kūʻai U.S. e nā ʻoihana ʻoi loa, a ʻo nā ʻoihana maikaʻi loa e pōmaikaʻi i kāna ʻano mākeke maikaʻi, nā ʻano kālepa, a me nā ʻano o nā mākia e hoʻolālā i ka mākeke, e hana ana i nā ʻoihana ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi, ʻo ka huʻa ka liʻiliʻi loa.

ʻAʻole pipiʻi nā kumukūʻai U.S.

'Lelo pinepine mākou he kumukūʻai nā hui kālā US, akā mai nā manaʻo ʻelua:

ʻO ka mea mua, e lawe i ka iwi hope o ka mākeke kūʻai ʻo U.S. wale nō. ʻAʻole pipiʻi kēia mau ʻoihana i hiki ke hoʻokele i ka papa kuhikuhi kumukūʻai o ka US, a ʻaʻole pipiʻi lākou i ka honua, a ʻaʻole pipiʻi ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia me nā A-hea.Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē, nā mea nāwaliwali, a ʻo nā mea i ʻoi aku ke koʻikoʻi i ʻoi aku ka pipiʻi.

ʻO ka lua, no ka haʻahaʻa o ka uku paneʻe, he 1.6 a he 1.7 mau makahiki wale nō ka loaʻa kālā o nā waihona ma nā US.ʻO kēia ka helu mua. Mai ke kuanaʻike o ke ʻano o ka mākeke kumupaʻa o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ma mua o ka hoʻopaʻa paʻa ʻana o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ka piula (contraction substantial), ʻaʻole ala ke ala ʻo nā ʻoihana maikaʻi loa ma ka mākeke kūʻai ʻo US.

I kēia makahiki, ʻaʻole kahi mākeke bear ʻo ka mākeke kūʻai U.S.

ʻO kahi mākeke bea kahi makaʻu ʻōnaehana honua

ʻO ka lua, nā ʻokoʻa ma waena o nā ʻāina.Manaʻo mākou ʻaʻole ka mākeke bear o kēia makahiki ʻo US mākeke. Ma ka hopena o ka makahiki i hala, ua nui ka poʻe i ʻōlelo ʻaʻole manaʻo maikaʻi nā kumukūʻai US e pili ana i kēia makahiki. Ua ʻōlelo wau ʻaʻole nā ​​mākeke ʻo US he mākeke bear. I kēia manawa, pono e lilo kahi mākeke bear i nā US stock i kahi ʻōnaehana ʻōnaehana honua.Inā aia kahi mākeke bear ma ka mākeke kūʻai US ma kēia makahiki, pono e hoʻopaʻa paʻa ʻia ka pahu ākea o ka Fed. He pilikia ʻōnaehana honua ia, inā he A-mahele, nā mākeke e kū mai ana, a i ʻole nā ​​mākeke kūʻai ʻEulopa.    

Ma ka pae ʻelua, mai ke kuanaʻike o ka honua, inā alakaʻi ka US i ka ʻōnaehana kālā o ka honua, ʻaʻole ia he hoʻopaʻa paʻa ʻōnaehana, ʻaʻole paha ia ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma nā waihona US. Mai ka hoʻomaka o ka makahiki, ua hana maikaʻi ʻole nā ​​kumukūʻai US. a ʻo kekahi o kāna mau lāki helu helu ʻo nā mākeke kūʻai maikaʻi maikaʻi i nā mākeke e kū nei ua hana i kahi nāwaliwali.ʻOiai ʻaʻole he bear nui ka mākeke kūʻai kālā ʻo US, he mākeke bullish a i ʻole hoʻonohonoho kūpono ia, e lawe ana i nā manawa kūpono i nā mākeke ʻē aʻe a puni ka honua. He hoʻohālikelike kēia ma waena o nā mākeke ʻāina a me nā mākeke kūʻai ʻāina.

ke kolu,。很明显,今年美股的是中小型的表现得比大型得好,周期和价值表现的比成长的好,这是从年初一直到现在。但是有可能会有所变化,下半年不排除成长的有所改善。

从长期的角度来说,美国还是一个依靠科技驱动、内需驱动的经济体,从的角度来说,它的主心骨还是具有科技创新能力的这些巨头拖着美股走,今年的道琼斯,罗素3000、罗素2000,表现的比纳斯达克从年初到现在好很多。

但是恰恰我们看到美股不是同涨同跌,它是一个涨,比如说价值涨,成长在调整。无论是中概股还是美股本地的纯美股,其实在今年从年初以来偏成长的很多都调了30%—50%以上,不要以为美股指数很牛,忽略了美股市场的专业化、机构化的特征。我一直讲尽量用买基金、定投基金为主,让专业的投资者参与到美股,不要用炒A股的思路,散户化的思路考虑美股的市场。

E nānā i nā helu ʻekolu ke hoʻokomo kālā ʻana ma QDII:

Hoʻomaopopo iā ʻoe iho, hahau pōkole e ka lōʻihi, paʻi wikiwiki e ka lohi

Q: He aha kaʻu e nānā ai i ka wā e hoʻopukapuka ana i QDII?

Zhang Yidong: QDII ponoʻī kahi mea hana, kahi huahana, a me kahi huahana e kōkua i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana i ka waiwai.Nui nā manaʻo hopohopo:

第一,认知自我。在认知产品之前,先看一看自己是什么样子的。因为并不是所有的人都能够在某些产品上赚钱,比如某些着名的产品可能十几年翻了几十倍,但没用,持有人拿了一就卖掉了。

Wahi a kekahi poʻe e like ke kūʻai ʻana me QDII i ke kūʻai ʻana i nā huahana like like ʻole A. Ke hana wau i kahi pāʻina, hāʻule pinepine wau i loko.He mea nui ka ʻike ʻana iā ʻoe iho. ʻO kou ahonui, inā koho ʻoe i kahi kāʻei a i ʻole hoʻonohonoho hoʻonohonoho lōʻihi wale nō, ʻokoʻa.

ʻO ka lua, e kia i ka wā lōʻihi a me ka wā pōkole.Ma hope o ke kūʻai ʻana, hoʻāʻo e ʻike ʻo ka QDII āu i kūʻai ai aia ma kahi mākeke kamaʻāina ʻole ma waho o kāu pōʻai hiki. Pono ʻoe i kahi hana maʻamau no nā luna hoʻokele kālā. Pono ʻoe e ʻike i ka horsepower mai kahi lōʻihi, pono maoli ka ʻoihana. maopopo maoli i ka mākeke.ʻO ka ʻike ʻana i ka loaʻa kālā ʻana ma nā waihona kālā a ʻAmelika ʻaʻole ia e kaukaʻi ʻia i ka manawa, akā ma nā ʻoihana maikaʻi, nā ʻoihana kūlana kiʻekiʻe, a i ka wā e waiwai ai lākou, he ana lākou i ka waiwai.

第三,以慢打快。因为大家对海外市场感兴趣,往往是因为觉得A股没戏,喜欢把钱投出去,相比A股那边的收益率好一点。但是A股的一旦疯起来特别快。很多人在A股一旦起来的时候就割肉,直接把钱从QDII折腾出来。    

ʻO kēia mau helu ʻekolu, ke ʻike ʻana iā ʻoe iho, e pāʻani pōkole ana me ka lōʻihi a ke pāʻani wikiwiki nei me ka lohi kaʻu ʻōlelo aʻoaʻo i nā mea āpau.ʻOiai ke holo pono nei ka papa kuhikuhi mākeke ʻo US, inā ʻaʻole hiki iā mākou ke hoʻomaopopo maopopo iā mākou iho, ke ʻōlelo nei wau e makemake nā mea āpau e hana i ka mea i maikaʻi ai lākou, ʻaʻole pono e hāhai i ke ʻano.

I ka 2007 a me ka 2008, ke kaulana loa ʻo QDII, ke hoʻohana nei i ke kaulana e kau inoa no QDII, he nui ka poʻe i lilo i ke kālā he nui a ʻokiʻoki i kā lākou ʻiʻo.

No laila, no ke kau inoa ʻana no QDII, pono ʻoe e nānā i ke kumumanaʻo o ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana o ka waiwai o nā mea hoʻopukapuka a me ka wā o ka loiloi. Ma hope o kou ʻike maikaʻi iā ʻoe iho, ke koho maikaʻi hea.E like me ka hoʻokele kālā, lawe ʻoe i ke kālā āu e pono ʻole ai e hoʻohana wikiwiki i ka wā pōkole, a hana mau i nā hoʻopukapuka maʻamau. Maʻemaʻe loa kāu pahuhopu, ʻo ia ke kūʻai ʻana i kekahi waiwai i loaʻa ʻole ma nā A-mahele. , a ma o ma Southbound Stock Connect, hiki iā ʻoe ke kūʻai i nā waiwai ʻoi loa i loaʻa ʻole ma nā waihona Hong Kong. ʻO nā waiwai nui o Kina ʻaʻole wale nā ​​waiwai nui o nā ʻāpana A a me nā waihona Hong Kong ma Kina. ʻO kēia kaʻu kaʻana like ʻana.

全球化配置时代已,

E loaʻa ai ka ʻoihana ʻoi loa ma ka honua

Q: Inā makemake ʻoe e hoʻopukapuka ma QDII, ʻo QDII kahi koho pono i koho ʻia i loko o kā mākou hīnaʻi?He wahi hoʻomaka nui ia no kā mākou hīnaʻi e hoʻokaʻawale i nā waiwai?

Zhang Yidong: ʻOiaʻiʻo, no ka mea ua komo ka honua i kahi wā o ka ulu haʻahaʻa a me nā uku paneʻe haʻahaʻa, kahi wā hou o ka mediocrity.I kēia manawa, pono mākou e ʻike i nā ʻoihana ʻoi loa o ka honua. Ua noi wau i ka manaʻo o nā waiwai nui o Kina i ka makahiki 2016. ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, hiki ke hoʻonui ʻia kēia manaʻo i ka honua, inā ʻo Europe, Iapana, ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, a i ʻole ka honua e ʻike i nā ʻoihana maikaʻi loa. E hoʻomau i ka hoʻolako ʻana i nā waiwai me ka hoʻokūkū nui a me ka lakio kumukūʻai / hana maikaʻi.

Ke hōʻiliʻili ka waiwai kaiāulu o ka poʻe Kina i kahi pae, ua hiki aku kā mākou GDP per capita i 1 US kālā. Wahi a ka ʻike o ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika, ʻo ia ka hoʻomaka mua o ka globalisation o kā Gome waiwai. Ma muli o ia ʻike , pono mākou e noʻonoʻo mau i ka hoʻopukapuka ʻana ma QDII, a e hele a maʻa mau me kēia ʻano luna maikaʻi loa. Mai hoʻokau i kou ikaika āpau i ka manawa hoʻokahi. Inā kau ʻoe i nā mea āpau, malia paha e nāwaliwali a kaumaha no ka mea pōkole, lohi a wikiwiki hoʻi, akā ua hoʻomaka ka wā o ka hoʻonohonoho honua.

Reprint Statement: Ua paʻi hou ʻia kēia ʻatikala a paʻi ʻia, kahi e hōʻike ai i ke ʻano o ka mea kākau kumu a i ʻole ka papahana kumu, a ʻaʻole ia e hōʻike i ko mākou manaʻo.Hāʻawi wale ʻia kahi paepae hoʻopuka ʻike, a ua holoi ʻia paha ka ʻatikala.Kāhea aku i ka mea kākau kumu i loaʻa nā mea kūʻē a me nā noi no ka holoi ʻia.

Ua kaʻana ʻo "Chinatown" Fb i nā nūhou Australia i wae ʻia i kēlā me kēia lā, i hiki iā ʻoe ke ʻike i nā nūhou Australia hou loa i kēlā me kēia manawa a me nā wahi āpau @ 娱乐 、: Https://www.fb.com/news.china.com.au/

[Welina mai i ka nūhou e kūkā! Account Waihona WeChat kau inoa: news-china-com-au

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